Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T243 |
0-235 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The forecasting method combines an SEEIIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) population model of infection with daily COVID-19 case notification counts, through the use of a bootstrap particle filter (Arulampalam et al., 2002). |
T244 |
236-401 |
Sentence |
denotes |
This approach is similar to that implemented and described in Moss et al., 2019b, in the context of seasonal influenza forecasts for several major Australian cities. |
T245 |
402-541 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Briefly, the particle filter method uses post-regularisation (Doucet et al., 2001), with a deterministic resampling stage (Kitagawa, 1996). |
T246 |
542-622 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Code and documentation are available at https://epifx.readthedocs.io/en/latest/. |
T247 |
623-941 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The daily case counts by date of diagnosis were modelled using a negative binomial distribution with a fixed dispersion parameter k, and the expected number of cases was proportional to the daily incidence of symptomatic infections in the SEEIIR model; this proportion was characterised by the observation probability. |
T248 |
942-1276 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Natural disease history parameters were sampled from narrow uniform priors, based on values reported in the literature for COVID-19 (Table 3), and each particle was associated with an Rššš trajectory that was drawn from the state/territory Rššš trajectories in Figure 2 up to 5 April, from which point they are assumed to be constant. |
T249 |
1277-1431 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The model was subsequently projected forward from April 14 to April 28, to forecast the number of reported cases, assuming a detection probability of 80%. |