Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T180 |
0-36 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Reporting delays and under-reporting |
T181 |
37-320 |
Sentence |
denotes |
A pre-hoc statistical analysis was conducted in order to estimate a distribution of the reporting delays from the line-lists of cases, using the code base provided by London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases nCoV working group, 2020. |
T182 |
321-391 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The estimated reporting delay is assumed to remain constant over time. |
T183 |
392-569 |
Sentence |
denotes |
These reporting delays are used to: (i) infer the time of symptom onset for those without this information, and; (ii) infer how many cases in recent days are yet to be recorded. |
T184 |
570-687 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Adjusting for reporting delays is critical for inferring when a drop in observed cases reflects a true drop in cases. |
T185 |
688-786 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Trends identified using this approach are robust to under-reporting, assuming that it is constant. |
T186 |
787-853 |
Sentence |
denotes |
However, absolute values of Rššš may be biased by reporting rates. |
T187 |
854-930 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Pronounced changes in reporting rates may also impact the trends identified. |
T188 |
931-1071 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The delay from symptom onset to reporting is likely to decrease over the course of the epidemic, due to improved surveillance and reporting. |
T189 |
1072-1300 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We used a delay distribution estimated from observed reporting delays from the analysis period, which is therefore likely to underestimate reporting delays early in the epidemic, and overestimate them as the epidemic progressed. |
T190 |
1301-1593 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Underestimating the delay would result in an overestimate of Rššš, as the inferred onset dates (for those that were unknown) and adjustment for right-truncation, would result in more concentrated inferred daily cases (i.e., the inferred cases would be more clustered in time than in reality). |
T191 |
1594-1651 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The converse would be true when overestimating the delay. |
T192 |
1652-1838 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The impact of this misspecified distribution will be greatest on the most recent estimates of Rššš, where inference for both right-truncation and missing symptom onset dates is required. |