Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T132 |
0-16 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Model validation |
T133 |
17-233 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The validation cohort included data from 22 361 patients collected between 21 May 2020 and 29 June 2020 who had at least four weeks of follow-up; 743 (3.3%) patients had no outcome recorded and were considered alive. |
T134 |
234-287 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The overall mortality rate was 30.1% (6729 patients). |
T135 |
288-454 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The median age of patients in the cohort was 76 (interquartile range 60-85) years; 10 178 (45.6%) were female and 17 263 (77%) had at least one comorbidity (table 1). |
T136 |
455-572 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Discrimination of the 4C Mortality Score in the validation cohort was similar to that of the XGBoost model (table 3). |
T137 |
573-830 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Calibration was also found to be excellent in the validation cohort: overall observed (30.1%) versus predicted (30.1%) mortality was equal (calibration-in-the-large=0) and calibration was excellent over the range of risk (slope=1, Brier score 0.171; fig 2). |
T138 |
831-952 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The 4C Mortality Score showed good performance in clinically relevant metrics across a range of cut-off values (table 4). |
T139 |
953-1189 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Four risk groups were defined with corresponding mortality rates determined (table 5): low risk (0-3 score, mortality rate 1.2%), intermediate risk (4-8 score, 9.9%), high risk (9-14 score, 31.4%), and very high risk (≥15 score, 61.5%). |
T140 |
1190-1377 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Performance metrics showed a high sensitivity (99.7%) and negative predictive value (98.8%) for the low risk group, covering 7.4% of the cohort and a corresponding mortality rate of 1.2%. |
T141 |
1378-1508 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Patients in the intermediate risk group (score 4-8, n=4889, 21.9%) had a mortality rate of 9.9% (negative predictive value 90.1%). |
T142 |
1509-1752 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Patients in the high risk group (score 9-14, n=11 664, 52.2%) had a mortality rate of 31.4% (negative predictive value 68.6%), while patients scoring 15 or higher (n=4158, 18.6%) had a mortality rate of 61.5% (positive predictive value 61.5%). |
T143 |
1753-1821 |
Sentence |
denotes |
An interactive infographic is available at https://isaric4c.net/risk |