PMC:7116472 / 19710-21531 JSONTXT

{"project":"LitCovid-PubTator","denotations":[{"id":"279","span":{"begin":65,"end":73},"obj":"Species"},{"id":"280","span":{"begin":174,"end":182},"obj":"Species"},{"id":"281","span":{"begin":277,"end":285},"obj":"Species"},{"id":"282","span":{"begin":306,"end":314},"obj":"Species"},{"id":"283","span":{"begin":246,"end":255},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"287","span":{"begin":480,"end":489},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"288","span":{"begin":692,"end":701},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"289","span":{"begin":838,"end":847},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"293","span":{"begin":1002,"end":1011},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"294","span":{"begin":1061,"end":1070},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"295","span":{"begin":1354,"end":1363},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"302","span":{"begin":1378,"end":1386},"obj":"Species"},{"id":"303","span":{"begin":1509,"end":1517},"obj":"Species"},{"id":"304","span":{"begin":1642,"end":1650},"obj":"Species"},{"id":"305","span":{"begin":1451,"end":1460},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"306","span":{"begin":1577,"end":1586},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"307","span":{"begin":1694,"end":1703},"obj":"Disease"}],"attributes":[{"id":"A279","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"279","obj":"Tax:9606"},{"id":"A280","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"280","obj":"Tax:9606"},{"id":"A281","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"281","obj":"Tax:9606"},{"id":"A282","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"282","obj":"Tax:9606"},{"id":"A283","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"283","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A287","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"287","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A288","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"288","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A289","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"289","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A293","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"293","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A294","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"294","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A295","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"295","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A302","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"302","obj":"Tax:9606"},{"id":"A303","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"303","obj":"Tax:9606"},{"id":"A304","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"304","obj":"Tax:9606"},{"id":"A305","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"305","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A306","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"306","obj":"MESH:D003643"},{"id":"A307","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"307","obj":"MESH:D003643"}],"namespaces":[{"prefix":"Tax","uri":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/taxonomy/"},{"prefix":"MESH","uri":"https://id.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/"},{"prefix":"Gene","uri":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gene/"},{"prefix":"CVCL","uri":"https://web.expasy.org/cellosaurus/CVCL_"}],"text":"Model validation\nThe validation cohort included data from 22 361 patients collected between 21 May 2020 and 29 June 2020 who had at least four weeks of follow-up; 743 (3.3%) patients had no outcome recorded and were considered alive. The overall mortality rate was 30.1% (6729 patients). The median age of patients in the cohort was 76 (interquartile range 60-85) years; 10 178 (45.6%) were female and 17 263 (77%) had at least one comorbidity (table 1).\nDiscrimination of the 4C Mortality Score in the validation cohort was similar to that of the XGBoost model (table 3). Calibration was also found to be excellent in the validation cohort: overall observed (30.1%) versus predicted (30.1%) mortality was equal (calibration-in-the-large=0) and calibration was excellent over the range of risk (slope=1, Brier score 0.171; fig 2). The 4C Mortality Score showed good performance in clinically relevant metrics across a range of cut-off values (table 4).\nFour risk groups were defined with corresponding mortality rates determined (table 5): low risk (0-3 score, mortality rate 1.2%), intermediate risk (4-8 score, 9.9%), high risk (9-14 score, 31.4%), and very high risk (≥15 score, 61.5%). Performance metrics showed a high sensitivity (99.7%) and negative predictive value (98.8%) for the low risk group, covering 7.4% of the cohort and a corresponding mortality rate of 1.2%.\nPatients in the intermediate risk group (score 4-8, n=4889, 21.9%) had a mortality rate of 9.9% (negative predictive value 90.1%). Patients in the high risk group (score 9-14, n=11 664, 52.2%) had a mortality rate of 31.4% (negative predictive value 68.6%), while patients scoring 15 or higher (n=4158, 18.6%) had a mortality rate of 61.5% (positive predictive value 61.5%). An interactive infographic is available at https://isaric4c.net/risk"}

{"project":"LitCovid-sentences","denotations":[{"id":"T132","span":{"begin":0,"end":16},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T133","span":{"begin":17,"end":233},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T134","span":{"begin":234,"end":287},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T135","span":{"begin":288,"end":454},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T136","span":{"begin":455,"end":572},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T137","span":{"begin":573,"end":830},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T138","span":{"begin":831,"end":952},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T139","span":{"begin":953,"end":1189},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T140","span":{"begin":1190,"end":1377},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T141","span":{"begin":1378,"end":1508},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T142","span":{"begin":1509,"end":1752},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T143","span":{"begin":1753,"end":1821},"obj":"Sentence"}],"namespaces":[{"prefix":"_base","uri":"http://pubannotation.org/ontology/tao.owl#"}],"text":"Model validation\nThe validation cohort included data from 22 361 patients collected between 21 May 2020 and 29 June 2020 who had at least four weeks of follow-up; 743 (3.3%) patients had no outcome recorded and were considered alive. The overall mortality rate was 30.1% (6729 patients). The median age of patients in the cohort was 76 (interquartile range 60-85) years; 10 178 (45.6%) were female and 17 263 (77%) had at least one comorbidity (table 1).\nDiscrimination of the 4C Mortality Score in the validation cohort was similar to that of the XGBoost model (table 3). Calibration was also found to be excellent in the validation cohort: overall observed (30.1%) versus predicted (30.1%) mortality was equal (calibration-in-the-large=0) and calibration was excellent over the range of risk (slope=1, Brier score 0.171; fig 2). The 4C Mortality Score showed good performance in clinically relevant metrics across a range of cut-off values (table 4).\nFour risk groups were defined with corresponding mortality rates determined (table 5): low risk (0-3 score, mortality rate 1.2%), intermediate risk (4-8 score, 9.9%), high risk (9-14 score, 31.4%), and very high risk (≥15 score, 61.5%). Performance metrics showed a high sensitivity (99.7%) and negative predictive value (98.8%) for the low risk group, covering 7.4% of the cohort and a corresponding mortality rate of 1.2%.\nPatients in the intermediate risk group (score 4-8, n=4889, 21.9%) had a mortality rate of 9.9% (negative predictive value 90.1%). Patients in the high risk group (score 9-14, n=11 664, 52.2%) had a mortality rate of 31.4% (negative predictive value 68.6%), while patients scoring 15 or higher (n=4158, 18.6%) had a mortality rate of 61.5% (positive predictive value 61.5%). An interactive infographic is available at https://isaric4c.net/risk"}