Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T1 |
0-62 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. |
T2 |
63-257 |
Sentence |
denotes |
A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). |
T3 |
258-327 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. |
T4 |
328-425 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. |
T5 |
426-625 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. |
T6 |
626-710 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. |
T7 |
711-900 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. |
T8 |
901-1013 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. |
T9 |
1014-1274 |
Sentence |
denotes |
While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. |
T10 |
1275-1393 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. |
T11 |
1394-1664 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems. |