Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T41 |
0-41 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Regional effects of the national lockdown |
T42 |
42-311 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Our approach successfully uncovers the regional effects of the national lockdown measures set in place by the Italian government initially in two northern regions (Lombardy and Veneto from the February 27, 2020), and then nationally from March 8, 2020 till May 4, 2020. |
T43 |
312-659 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We observe that notable parameter changes, detected automatically by our parameterization procedure (see Methods), occur as an effect of such measures with a certain degree of homogeneity across all regions (see Supplementary Fig. 13 and Supplementary Table 4 showing the changes in the social distancing parameter ρi over the period of interest). |
T44 |
660-853 |
Sentence |
denotes |
This confirms the effectiveness across the country of the strict social distancing rules implemented at the national level as also noted in previous work1,2,14 modelling the country as a whole. |
T45 |
854-1070 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The representative examples of two regions, Lombardy in the North and Campania in the South, highlighted in Fig. 1, show that the model correctly captures the effect of such measures in both the regions, see Table 1. |
T46 |
1071-1237 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The model also captures the effect of the flow of people that travelled from North to South when the national lockdown measures were first announced on March 8, 2020. |
T47 |
1238-1456 |
Sentence |
denotes |
As shown in Table 1, the estimated number of infected predicted by the model for the Campania region in the time window March 19–March 30, 2020 is detected to suddenly increase at the beginning of the next time window. |
T48 |
1457-1582 |
Sentence |
denotes |
This can be explained as a possible effect of the movement of people from North to South that occurred around 15 days before. |
T49 |
1583-1788 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Also, data analysis shows that the mortality rate varies as a function of the level of occupancy of the hospital beds in each region (see Supplementary Fig. 14 and Supplementary Notes for further details). |
T50 |
1789-1861 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Table 1 Estimated parameter values for Campania in the South (region no. |
T51 |
1862-1902 |
Sentence |
denotes |
6) and Lombardy in the North (region no. |
T52 |
1903-1944 |
Sentence |
denotes |
11), where the initial outbreak occurred. |
T53 |
1945-2005 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Region Breakpoint ρi αi ψi κi H κi Q ηi Q ηi H ζi I0 If R0,i |
T54 |
2006-2085 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Campania 19/3/20 0.467 0.014 0.064 0.000 0.100 0.018 0.000 0.022 1231 1816 1.26 |
T55 |
2086-2155 |
Sentence |
denotes |
30/3/20 0.221 0.067 0.019 0.006 0.040 0.018 0.000 0.011 2231 234 0.57 |
T56 |
2156-2236 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Lombardy 27/2/20 0.727 0.009 0.092 0.000 0.040 0.010 0.053 0.033 1799 28900 1.69 |
T57 |
2237-2308 |
Sentence |
denotes |
19/3/20 0.303 0.018 0.056 0.000 0.027 0.010 0.029 0.024 28900 6731 0.84 |
T58 |
2309-2368 |
Sentence |
denotes |
These regions are highlighted in a darker colour in Fig. 1. |
T59 |
2369-2658 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Here, I0 is the number of infected estimated in the region at the beginning of each time window, while If is the number of infected at the end of each time window estimated by running the model (14)–(16), given the set of identified parameters and the initial condition on the infected I0. |
T60 |
2659-2783 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The first breakpoint is the date when 10 deaths and 10 recovered were first reported in the region and the analysis started. |
T61 |
2784-2896 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The second breakpoint is the end of the first window and the start of the second window (ending on May 3, 2020). |