Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T268 |
0-78 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Forecasting ward and ICU bed occupancy from observed and projected case counts |
T269 |
79-207 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The number of new daily hospitalisations and ICU admissions were estimated from recently observed and forecasted case counts by: |
T270 |
208-362 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Estimating the age distribution of projected case counts using data from the national COVID-19 database on the age-specific proportion of confirmed cases; |
T271 |
363-478 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Estimating the age-specific hospitalisation and ICU admission rates using data from the national COVID-19 database. |
T272 |
479-683 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We assumed that all hospitalisations and ICU admissions were either recorded or were missing at random (31% and 58% of cases had no information recorded under hospitalisation or ICU status, respectively); |
T273 |
684-1038 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Randomly drawing the number of hospitalisations/ICU admissions in each age-group (for both the observed and projected case counts) from a binomial distribution with number of trials given by the expected number of cases in each age group (from 1), and probability given by the observed proportion of hospitalisations/ICU admissions by age group (from 2). |
T274 |
1039-1261 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Finally, in order to calculate the number of occupied ward/ICU beds per day, length-of-stay in a ward bed and ICU bed were assumed to be Gamma distributed with means (SD) of 11 (3.42) days and 14 (5.22) days, respectively. |
T275 |
1262-1397 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We assumed ICU admissions required a ward bed prior to, and following, ICU stay for a Poisson distributed number of days with mean 2.5. |
T276 |
1398-1551 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Relevant Australian data were not available to parameterise a model that captures the dynamics of patient flow within the hospital system in more detail. |
T277 |
1552-1695 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Instead, these distributions were informed by a large study of clinical characteristics of 1099 COVID-19 patients in China (Guan et al., 2020). |
T278 |
1696-1896 |
Sentence |
denotes |
This model provides a useful indication of hospital bed occupancy based on limited available data and may be updated as more specific data (e.g., on COVID-19 patient length-of-stay) becomes available. |