PMC:7449695 / 38185-40081 JSONTXT 7 Projects

Annnotations TAB TSV DIC JSON TextAE

Id Subject Object Predicate Lexical cue
T268 0-78 Sentence denotes Forecasting ward and ICU bed occupancy from observed and projected case counts
T269 79-207 Sentence denotes The number of new daily hospitalisations and ICU admissions were estimated from recently observed and forecasted case counts by:
T270 208-362 Sentence denotes Estimating the age distribution of projected case counts using data from the national COVID-19 database on the age-specific proportion of confirmed cases;
T271 363-478 Sentence denotes Estimating the age-specific hospitalisation and ICU admission rates using data from the national COVID-19 database.
T272 479-683 Sentence denotes We assumed that all hospitalisations and ICU admissions were either recorded or were missing at random (31% and 58% of cases had no information recorded under hospitalisation or ICU status, respectively);
T273 684-1038 Sentence denotes Randomly drawing the number of hospitalisations/ICU admissions in each age-group (for both the observed and projected case counts) from a binomial distribution with number of trials given by the expected number of cases in each age group (from 1), and probability given by the observed proportion of hospitalisations/ICU admissions by age group (from 2).
T274 1039-1261 Sentence denotes Finally, in order to calculate the number of occupied ward/ICU beds per day, length-of-stay in a ward bed and ICU bed were assumed to be Gamma distributed with means (SD) of 11 (3.42) days and 14 (5.22) days, respectively.
T275 1262-1397 Sentence denotes We assumed ICU admissions required a ward bed prior to, and following, ICU stay for a Poisson distributed number of days with mean 2.5.
T276 1398-1551 Sentence denotes Relevant Australian data were not available to parameterise a model that captures the dynamics of patient flow within the hospital system in more detail.
T277 1552-1695 Sentence denotes Instead, these distributions were informed by a large study of clinical characteristics of 1099 COVID-19 patients in China (Guan et al., 2020).
T278 1696-1896 Sentence denotes This model provides a useful indication of hospital bed occupancy based on limited available data and may be updated as more specific data (e.g., on COVID-19 patient length-of-stay) becomes available.