Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T530 |
0-10 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Discussion |
T531 |
12-35 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Summary of main results |
T532 |
36-312 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Individual signs and symptoms appear to have very poor diagnostic properties for COVID‐19, although this has to be interpreted in the presence of a limited number of studies, heterogeneity between the studies precluding any firm conclusions and in a context of selection bias. |
T533 |
313-392 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Most features had very low sensitivity, while specificity was moderate to high. |
T534 |
393-639 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We have identified four possible red flags, that is, symptoms that increased the probability of COVID‐19 when present because of a positive likelihood ratio of at least 5 in at least one study: fever, myalgia or arthralgia, fatigue, and headache. |
T535 |
640-847 |
Sentence |
denotes |
When we apply the results of sensitivity and specificity of these systemic features to disease probabilities, we assess their value to rule in and rule out disease as shown in the dumbbell plots (Figure 16). |
T536 |
848-939 |
Sentence |
denotes |
These clearly show the limited effect on disease probability from these signs and symptoms. |
T537 |
940-1057 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Importantly, we did not find any studies investigating the diagnostic accuracy of combinations of signs and symptoms. |
T538 |
1058-1122 |
Sentence |
denotes |
There were also no studies from community primary care settings. |
T539 |
1123-1376 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Some of our findings are counterintuitive, for example that the majority of the studies that investigated cough found that cough decreases the probability of COVID‐19 despite the fact that it is part of the case definition of COVID‐19 in most countries. |
T540 |
1377-1526 |
Sentence |
denotes |
This is also the case for fever in two studies and myalgia in one study ‐ even though these features were also red flags in at least one other study. |
T541 |
1527-1575 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We believe this may be caused by selection bias. |
T542 |
1576-1945 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Selection bias is present when selective and non‐random inclusion and exclusion of participants apply and the resulting association between exposure and outcome (here the accuracy of the test) differs in the selected study population compared to the eligible study population, and it has been shown that this may decrease estimates of diagnostic accuracy (Rutjes 2006). |
T543 |
1946-2105 |
Sentence |
denotes |
For the diagnosis of COVID‐19, rapidly and constantly changing, and widely variable test criteria have influenced who was referred for testing and who was not. |
T544 |
2106-2314 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Inclusion in the study of only a selective fraction of eligible patients can give a biased estimate of the real accuracy of the index test when measured against the reference standard and real disease status. |
T545 |
2315-2435 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Griffith 2020 reported on the problematic presence of collider stratification bias in the published studies on COVID‐19. |
T546 |
2436-2656 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Appropriate sampling strategies need to be applied to avoid conclusions of spurious relationships, more specifically in our case, the biased accuracy estimates of signs and symptoms for the diagnosis of COVID‐19 disease. |
T547 |
2657-2897 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Selection of patients based on the presence of specific pre‐set symptoms, such as fever and cough, lead to biased associations between these symptoms and disease, and sensitivity and specificity estimates that differ from their true values. |
T548 |
2898-2965 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The example of collider bias for cough is illustrated in Figure 17. |
T549 |
2966-3179 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Grouping studies by diagnostic criteria for selection might clarify this issue, but studies do not clearly describe them, with study authors referring to the guidelines in general that were applicable at the time. |
T550 |
3180-3384 |
Sentence |
denotes |
17 Directed acyclic graph on cough Another form of selection bias is spectrum bias, where the patients included in the studies do not reflect the patient spectrum to which the index test will be applied. |
T551 |
3385-3582 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The inclusion of hospitalised patients can lead to such a bias, when in these patients both the distribution of signs and symptoms differ and assessment with the reference standard is differential. |
T552 |
3583-3752 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In addition, the distribution and severity of alternative diagnoses may be different in hospitalised populations than in patients presenting to ambulatory care settings. |
T553 |
3754-3792 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Strengths and weaknesses of the review |
T554 |
3793-3998 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Strengths of our review are the systematic and broad search performed to include all possible studies, including those prior to peer‐review, to gather the largest number of studies available at this point. |
T555 |
3999-4290 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Exclusion of cases‐only studies, the largest number of the published cohorts of patients with COVID‐19, limits the available data but also improves the quality of the evidence and the possibility to present both sensitivity and specificity (cases only cannot provide both accuracy measures). |
T556 |
4291-4436 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Because this is a living systematic review, future updates may offer the possibility to do a meta‐analysis, which was not possible at this stage. |
T557 |
4437-4608 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In addition, further insights into this novel disease may lead to new evidence on signs and symptoms that are more diagnostic, which we will incorporate in future updates. |
T558 |
4609-4693 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The lack of data on combinations of signs and symptoms is an important evidence gap. |
T559 |
4694-4837 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Consequently, there is no evidence on syndromic presentation and the value of composite signs and symptoms on the diagnostic accuracy measures. |
T560 |
4838-4941 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In addition, subgroup analyses by the pre‐defined variables were not feasible due to lack of reporting. |
T561 |
4942-5042 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We need to assess multiple variables for their possible confounding effect on the summary estimates. |
T562 |
5043-5290 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Possible confounders include the presence of other respiratory pathogens (seasonality), the phase of the epidemic, exposure to high versus low prevalence setting, high or low exposure risk, comorbidity of the participants, or time since infection. |
T563 |
5291-5542 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Seasonality may influence specificity, because alternative diagnoses such as influenza or other respiratory viruses are more prevalent in winter, leading to more non‐COVID‐19 patients displaying symptoms such as cough or fever, decreasing specificity. |
T564 |
5543-5672 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In this version of the review, all studies were conducted in Winter or early Spring, suggesting this may still have been at play. |
T565 |
5673-5952 |
Sentence |
denotes |
However, social distancing policies have shortened this year's influenza season in several countries (www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/en/), which may have led to higher specificity for signs and symptoms than what we may expect in the next influenza season. |
T566 |
5953-6036 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In future updates of the review, we will explore seasonality effects if data allow. |
T567 |
6037-6218 |
Sentence |
denotes |
As for time since onset, given that the moment of infection is more likely than not an unrecognisable and unmeasurable variable, time since onset of symptoms can be used as a proxy. |
T568 |
6219-6454 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Reporting of studies, with presentation of the 2x2 table stratified by time since onset of disease, is informative and might have the potential to increase accuracy of the signs and symptoms and their diagnostic differential potential. |
T569 |
6456-6504 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Applicability of findings to the review question |
T570 |
6505-6896 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The high risk of selection bias, with many studies including patients who had already been admitted to hospital or who presented to hospital settings with the intent to hospitalise, leads to findings that are less applicable to people presenting in primary care, who on average experience a shorter illness duration, less severe symptoms and have a lower probability of the target condition. |
T571 |
6897-6961 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Our search did not find any articles providing data on children. |
T572 |
6962-7048 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Children have been underrepresented in the studies on diagnosing SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. |
T573 |
7049-7226 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Their absence seems related to the general mild presentation of the disease in the paediatric population, and the even more frequent asymptomatic course of COVID‐19 in children. |
T574 |
7227-7301 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The full scope of disease presentation in children is therefore not known. |
T575 |
7302-7622 |
Sentence |
denotes |
It is important to identify signs and symptoms that can be used to clinically assess children with suspected COVID‐19, especially because aspecific presentations and fever without a source are already common in this age group, and acute infection in children is a common cause for families to self‐isolate or get tested. |
T576 |
7623-7870 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Misclassification of children, where children will be asked to remain in quarantine when they present with predefined, but not yet evidence‐based symptoms needs to be avoided to decrease the possible damage done to children's health and education. |
T577 |
7871-7990 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Having separate data for neonates, young infants, toddlers, school‐aged children and adolescents is therefore of value. |
T578 |
7991-8039 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Another important patient group is older adults. |
T579 |
8040-8209 |
Sentence |
denotes |
They are most at risk of an adverse outcome of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, including an increased risk of requiring intensive care support and and increased risk of mortality. |
T580 |
8210-8294 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In this version of the review, only one study focused on adults aged 55 to 75 years. |
T581 |
8295-8401 |
Sentence |
denotes |
All other studies included adults of all ages and did not present results separately for older age groups. |
T582 |
8402-8676 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The lack of a solid evidence base for the diagnosis of COVID‐19 in older adults adds to the difficulty in diagnosing serious infections in this age group, as other serious infections such as bacterial pneumonia or urinary sepsis also tend to lead to aspecific presentations. |
T583 |
8677-8818 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The association of a single sign or symptom with COVID‐19 is highly uncertain, and we do not have data on combinations of signs and symptoms. |
T584 |
8819-8985 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Additionally, potentially more diagnostic symptoms such as loss of sense of smell have not yet been studied widely and remain to be assessed in well designed studies. |
T585 |
8986-9215 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Moreover, the nature of the signs and symptoms that are used to guide self‐isolation decisions are such that people may end up being quarantined on a regular basis, leading to missed days at school or work, isolation and anxiety. |
T586 |
9216-9411 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In future updates of this review, we intend to organise findings by age group, settings (in particular primary care settings versus hospital settings), and target condition, when evidence allows. |