LitCovid-sentences  

PMC:7175914 / 10224-25261 JSONTXT 7 Projects

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Id Subject Object Predicate Lexical cue
T61 0-6 Sentence denotes Result
T62 8-68 Sentence denotes Simulation and prediction of the COVID-19 disease variations
T63 69-291 Sentence denotes In this section, the variations of the COVID-19 in Guangdong province are simulated and predicted based on our SEIRQ model only considering the input population from the other provinces of China (excluding Hubei province).
T64 292-351 Sentence denotes The simulated period are from Jan 27, 2019 to Feb 19, 2020.
T65 352-454 Sentence denotes The parameter values and the initial values of our simulation and prediction are provided in Table 1 .
T66 455-610 Sentence denotes The performance is evaluated by the data from Feb 20, 2020 to Feb 23, 2020, and R  *  2, AE, RE, RMSE, MPAE and DISO are employed to quantify the accuracy.
T67 611-686 Sentence denotes The simulation and prediction results are displayed in Table 2 and Fig. 2 .
T68 687-750 Sentence denotes Table 1 Parameter estimates for COVID-19 in Guangdong province.
T69 751-794 Sentence denotes Parameter Definitions Esimated value Source
T70 795-846 Sentence denotes β Transmission incidence rate 2.45 × 10−8 Estimated
T71 847-931 Sentence denotes σ The fraction of transmission incidence rate for exposed individuals 0.63 Estimated
T72 932-978 Sentence denotes α Disease-induced death rate 0.00375 Estimated
T73 979-1092 Sentence denotes ν Transmission rate of exposed individuals to the infected class 0.183 [Zhao et al., 2020a], [Zhao et al., 2020b]
T74 1093-1151 Sentence denotes γ(t) Recovery rate 0.008+0.19(1+e5.0126−0.1846t) Estimated
T75 1152-1216 Sentence denotes q1(t) Quarantined rate of susceptible individuals 0.28 Estimated
T76 1217-1277 Sentence denotes q2(t) Quarantined rate of exposed individuals 0.76 Estimated
T77 1278-1336 Sentence denotes q3 Quarantined rate of infected individuals 0.89 Estimated
T78 1337-1365 Sentence denotes A(t) Input number 86926 data
T79 1366-1393 Sentence denotes B1 Output number 21356 data
T80 1394-1471 Sentence denotes p1 The fraction of input population into susceptible class 0.9999927 Computed
T81 1472-1545 Sentence denotes p2 The fraction of input population into exposed class 0.0000073 Computed
T82 1546-1611 Sentence denotes p3 The fraction of input population into infected class 0 Assumed
T83 1612-1660 Sentence denotes Initial values Definitions Esimated value Source
T84 1661-1704 Sentence denotes N(0) Initial total population 113460000 GSY
T85 1705-1760 Sentence denotes S(0) Initial susceptible population 113346174 Estimated
T86 1761-1805 Sentence denotes E(0) Initial exposed population 31 Estimated
T87 1806-1851 Sentence denotes I(0) Initial infected population 19 Estimated
T88 1852-1917 Sentence denotes Sq(0) Initial quarantined susceptible population 113460 Estimated
T89 1918-1971 Sentence denotes Eq(0) Initial quarantined exposed population 128 data
T90 1972-2026 Sentence denotes Iq(0) Initial quarantined infected population 184 data
T91 2027-2066 Sentence denotes R(0 Initial recovered population 4 data
T92 2067-2077 Sentence denotes Note: GSY:
T93 2078-2115 Sentence denotes Guangdong Statistical Yearbook, 2019.
T94 2116-2198 Sentence denotes Table 2 Evaluation results of the simulation and prediction in Guangdong province.
T95 2199-2236 Sentence denotes Different cases Simulation Prediction
T96 2237-2279 Sentence denotes R * 2 AE MAPE (%) DISO 20/2 21/2 22/2 23/2
T97 2280-2307 Sentence denotes RE (%) RE (%) RE (%) RE (%)
T98 2308-2381 Sentence denotes Cumulative confirmed cases 0.9973 −5.33 2.54 0.06 −0.38 −0.45 −0.37 −0.37
T99 2382-2440 Sentence denotes Confirmed cases 0.9898 −2.63 3.86 0.11 2.68 1.51 0.81 7.07
T100 2441-2505 Sentence denotes Recovered cases 0.9934 −3.38 43.32 0.17 −2.09 −1.38 −3.75 −10.41
T101 2506-2690 Sentence denotes Figure 2 Simulation and prediction of the COVID-19 in Guangdong province. (A) cumulative confirmed cases; (B) daily new confirmed cases and (C) difference of increased confirmed cases.
T102 2691-3009 Sentence denotes The initial values and parameters are S(0) = 113346174, E(0) = 31, I(0) = 19, R(0) = 4, Sq(0) = 113460, Eq(0) = 128, Iq(0) = 184, A = 86926, B = 21356, p1 = 0.9999927, p2 = 0.0000073, p3 = 0, q1 = 0.28, q2 = 0.76, q3 = 0.89, α = 0.00375, β = 2.45 × 10−8, ν = 0.183, σ = 0.63, γ(t) = 0.008 + 0.19/(1 + e5.0126−0.1846t).
T103 3010-3136 Sentence denotes Our model has the ability to simulate and to predict the COVID-19 variations with the very high accuracy (Table 2 and Fig. 2).
T104 3137-3318 Sentence denotes Particularly, the determinant coefficients R* of the cumulative confirmed cases, confirmed cases and recovered cases are highly to 0.9973, 0.9898 and 0.9934, respectively (Table 2).
T105 3319-3462 Sentence denotes Very small estimations are obtained with the AE values of −5.33, −2.63 and −3.38 for the cumulative cases, confirmed cases and recovered cases.
T106 3463-3646 Sentence denotes The comprehensive accuracies of our model are quantitatively measured by the DISO with the values of 0.06, 0.11 and 0.17 for the cumulative cases, confirmed cases and recovered cases.
T107 3647-3950 Sentence denotes For the validation at Feb 20, Feb 21, Feb 22 and Feb 23, 2020, the very small RE values of the cumulative confirmed cases, confirmed cases and recovered cases indicate that our model also has very high accuracies and it can be employed to predict the future variations of the COVID-19 disease (Table 2).
T108 3951-4155 Sentence denotes Moreover, the largest number of cumulative confirmed cases is 1397 at May 7, 2020 which indicates that the COVID-19 disease will become extinction after 102 days in Guangdong province (Fig. 2A, STable 1).
T109 4156-4294 Sentence denotes The peak value time of daily new confirmed cases is Feb 1, 2020 which is highly agrement with the reported time at Jan 31, 2020 (Fig. 2B).
T110 4295-4496 Sentence denotes For the confirmed cases, the peak value and the corresponding time are both obtained by our model with the simulated values of 1002 at Feb 10, 2020 and reported values of 1007 at Feb 9, 2020 (Fig. 2C).
T111 4497-4638 Sentence denotes The number of the recovered cases will reach about 1400 which is consist with the future changes of the cumulative confirmed cases (Fig. 2D).
T112 4639-4825 Sentence denotes In order to further explore the forecasting accuracy of our model, we have been compared the forecasting result with the observed data prolonged 11 days from Feb 24, 2020 to Mar 4, 2020.
T113 4826-4934 Sentence denotes The absolute values of RE (relative error) of the cumulative confirmed cases are smaller than 1% (Table 3 ).
T114 4935-5102 Sentence denotes The corresponding figures also display that our model can capture the temporal variations in a relative longer period (see SFigure 1 in the supplementary information).
T115 5103-5170 Sentence denotes Table 3 Evaluation results of the prediction in Guangdong province.
T116 5171-5223 Sentence denotes RE (%) 24/2 25/2 26/2 27/2 28/2 29/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3
T117 5224-5302 Sentence denotes Cumulative confirmed cases −2.30 −0.41 0.12 0.20 0.25 0.37 0.40 0.49 0.58 0.66
T118 5303-5388 Sentence denotes Confirmed cases −14.98 −19.21 −24.22 −26.74 −27.64 −30.81 −36.19 −35.94 −33.52 −34.68
T119 5389-5460 Sentence denotes Recovered cases 9.60 11.35 13.09 12.57 10.88 10.67 11.35 9.35 7.08 6.31
T120 5462-5512 Sentence denotes Effects of input population at different scenarios
T121 5513-5787 Sentence denotes The input population variations include the percentage changes p 2 of the exposed individuals and the number changes A of the input population which impact the disease on the peak value of the cumulative confirmed cases and the disease extinction time (Figure 3, Figure 4 ).
T122 5788-6179 Sentence denotes For the first time point t 1  = 10 (i.e. Feb 6, 2020), the days of disease extinction (DDE) are shortened to 78 days (i.e. Apr 13, 2020) and 69 days (i.e. Apr 4, 2020) at Sce 1: (p 2, A) = (p 2  * , 1.5A  *) and Sce 2: (p 2, A) = (p 2  * , 2A  *), and the maximum values of the cumulative confirmed cases (MVCCC) have the numbers of 1396 and 1397 [Fig. 3A, Supplementary table 1 (STable 1)].
T123 6180-6355 Sentence denotes For the confirmed cases, the peak values are nearly close to the baseline value with the number of 1003, and the corresponding times are same as the baseline value (STable 1).
T124 6356-6578 Sentence denotes Moreover, the confirmed cases of Sce 1 and Sce 2 have the same variations as the baseline result with their early disease extinction that are consist with the variations of the cumulative confirmed cases (Fig. 2A and 3 A).
T125 6579-6871 Sentence denotes For Sce 4, Sce 5, Sce 7 and Sce 8, compared with the baseline results, the DDE of these scenarios are 81 days (i.e. Apr 16, 2020), 59 days (i.e. Mar 25, 2020), 83 days (i.e. Apr 18, 2020) and 73 days (i.e. Apr 8, 2020), respectively which indicate the early extinction of COVID-19 (STable 1).
T126 6872-6977 Sentence denotes The MVCCC of the four scenarios are larger than the baseline result with the largest value (1448) in Sce:
T127 6978-7000 Sentence denotes 8 (Fig. 3A, STable 1).
T128 7001-7107 Sentence denotes For the confirmed cases, these scenarios are similar as these of the baseline results (Fig. 4A, STable 1).
T129 7108-7356 Sentence denotes Figure 3 Scenarios results of input population impacting on the cumuletive confirmed COVID-19 cases at four time points: (A) t1 = 10, (B) t1 = 20, (C) t1 = 28 and (D) t1 = 38 corresponding to Feb 6, 2020, Feb 16, 2020, Feb 24, 2020 and Mar 5, 2020.
T130 7357-7594 Sentence denotes Figure 4 Scenarios results of input population impacting on the confirmed COVID-19 cases at four time points: (A) t1 = 10, (B) t1 = 20, (C) t1 = 28 and (D) t1 = 38 corresponding to Feb 6, 2020, Feb 16, 2020, Feb 24, 2020 and Mar 5, 2020.
T131 7595-7938 Sentence denotes For Sce 3: (p 2, A) = (1.5p 2  * , A  *) and Sce 6: (p 2, A) = (2p 2  * , A  *), the increased percentage of the exposed individuals only impacted the number of the cumulative confirmed cases with the values of 1422 and 1447, and the corresponding DDE have only small changes with 105 days for Sce 3 and 107 days for Sce 6 (Fig. 3A, STable 1).
T132 7939-8087 Sentence denotes For the confirmed cases, they have the very similar variations as the baseline result in the peak value and the peak value time (Fig. 4A, STable 1).
T133 8088-8235 Sentence denotes For the other three time points t 1  = 20, t 1  = 28 and t 1  = 38, the differences of the scenarios results are similar as the these of t 1  = 10.
T134 8236-8510 Sentence denotes Moreover, for each scenario, the changes in the input population have the nearly same impacts on the disease variations among the four time points which display that the same input population strategies at different time points have no significant difference on the disease.
T135 8511-8807 Sentence denotes From the above analysis, it can be concluded that the increased numbers of the input population can mainly shorten the disease extinction days and the increased percentages of the exposed individuals of the input population increase the number of cumulative confirmed cases at a small percentage.
T136 8808-8961 Sentence denotes Both the increased input population and the increased exposed individuals have no impacts on the peak values and peak value times of the confirmed cases.
T137 8963-9013 Sentence denotes Effects of quarantine rates at different scenarios
T138 9014-9144 Sentence denotes In this section, the effects of quarantine rates at six scenarios on the COVID-19 variations are displayed in Figure 5, Figure 6 .
T139 9145-9426 Sentence denotes For the first time point t 1  = 10, Feb 6, 2020, Sce 1 (q 1, q 2) = (0q 1  * , 0q 2  *) has significantly negative impacts on the COVID-19 variations with the disease outbreak again which suggest the very high risks appear at the quarantine strategy of Sce 1 (Figure 5, Figure 6A).
T140 9427-9591 Sentence denotes Specifically, the confirmed cases reaches its first peak value as the baseline result at Feb 10, 2020, and then the number is decreased close to 97 at Mar 14, 2020.
T141 9592-9718 Sentence denotes A sharp increase is detected to the second peak value of the confirmed cases with the number of 1016704 at 165 days (Fig. 6A).
T142 9719-9835 Sentence denotes The disease will become extinction after 361 days with the MVCCC dramatically reaching to more than 9 million (Figs.
T143 9836-9853 Sentence denotes 5A and STable 2).
T144 9854-10117 Sentence denotes Sce 2: (q 1, q 2) = (0q 1  * , 0.5q 2  *) and Sce 3: (q 1, q 2) = (0q 1  * , q 2  *) have the similar impacts on the disease variations with the largest cumulative confirmed values of 1444 at 110 days (i.e. May 15, 2020), and 1416 at 105 days (i.e. May 10, 2020).
T145 10118-10321 Sentence denotes The DDE and MVCCC of Sce 4: (q 1, q 2) = (0.5q 1  * , 0.5q 2  *), Sce 5: (q 1, q 2) = (0.5q 1  * , q 2  *) and Sce 6: (q 1, q 2) = (q 1  * , 0.5q 2  *) are agreement with the baseline results (STable 2).
T146 10322-10457 Sentence denotes These three scenarios have very weak influences on the confirmed case variations compared with the baseline result (Fig. 6A, STable 2).
T147 10458-10706 Sentence denotes Figure 5 Scenarios results of quarantine rates impacting on the cumuletive confirmed COVID-19 cases at four time points: (A) t1 = 10, (B) t1 = 20, (C) t1 = 28 and (D) t1 = 38 corresponding to Feb 6, 2020, Feb 16, 2020, Feb 24, 2020 and Mar 5, 2020.
T148 10707-10944 Sentence denotes Figure 6 Scenarios results of quarantine rates impacting on the confirmed COVID-19 cases at four time points: (A) t1 = 10, (B) t1 = 20, (C) t1 = 28 and (D) t1 = 38 corresponding to Feb 6, 2020, Feb 16, 2020, Feb 24, 2020 and Mar 5, 2020.
T149 10945-11206 Sentence denotes For the other three time points, Sce 1: (q 1, q 2) = (0q 1  * , 0q 2  *) increased the MVCCC and prolonged the DDE with the values of 1430 at 123 days (i.e. May 28, 2020), 1416 at 115 days (i.e. May 20, 2020) and 1409 at 112 days (i.e. May 17, 2020) (STable 2).
T150 11207-11365 Sentence denotes The disease variations of the other scenarios are agreement with the baseline results which indicates the weak impacts of these scenarios (Fig. 5A, STable 2).
T151 11366-11658 Sentence denotes Moreover, we also explored that the second outbreak of the disease appears when both the values of q 1 and q 2 are nearly close to zero, such as (q 1, q 2) = (0.01q 1  * , 0.01q 2  *), (0q 1  * , 0.05q 2  *) at t 1  = 10, and (q 1, q 2) = (0q 1  * , 0q 2  *) at t 1  = 11 (Fig. 7 , STable 3).
T152 11659-11868 Sentence denotes This suggests that no quarantine or very weak quarantine on the susceptible individuals and exposed individuals before the days of the peak values of the confirmed cases may lead to the disease outbreak again.
T153 11869-12141 Sentence denotes Figure 7 Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases (A) and confirmed COVID-19 cases (B) at the scenarios of aspect 2 with (q1, q2) = (0.01q1 * , 0.01q2 *), (0q1 * , 0.05q2 *) at t1 = 10, and (q1, q2) = (0q1 * , 0q2 *) at t1 = 11, and the other parameters as the baseline values.
T154 12143-12219 Sentence denotes Effects of both input population and quarantine rates at different scenarios
T155 12220-12353 Sentence denotes The impact results of both the input population and quarantine rates on the COVID-19 disease are displayed in Fig. 8, 9 and STable 3.
T156 12354-12608 Sentence denotes According to the results in “Effects of input population at different scenarios” and “Effects of quarantine rates at different scenarios” sections, the second outbreak of the disease are obtained in the scenarios with no or very weak quarantine strategy.
T157 12609-12625 Sentence denotes Therefore, Figs.
T158 12626-12781 Sentence denotes 8 and 9 only provide the COVID-19 disease variations of the scenarios with second outbreak, and the disease variations in other scenarios are not provided.
T159 12782-12833 Sentence denotes STable 4 provides the results of all the scenarios.
T160 12834-13108 Sentence denotes Figure 8 Scenarios results of both input population and quarantine rates impacting on the cumuletive confirmed COVID-19 cases at four time points: (A) t1 = 10, (B) t1 = 20, (C) t1 = 28 and (D) t1 = 38 corresponding to Feb 6, 2020, Feb 16, 2020, Feb 24, 2020 and Mar 5, 2020.
T161 13109-13384 Sentence denotes Figure 9 Scenarios results of both input population and quarantine rates impacting on the cumuletive confirmed COVID-19 cases at four time points: (A) t1 = 10, (B) t1 = 20, (C) t1 = 28 and (D) t1 = 38 corresponding to Feb 6, 2020, Feb 16, 2020, Feb 24, 2020 and Mar 5,  2020.
T162 13385-13777 Sentence denotes For time point t 1  = 10, Sce 1: (p 2, A, q 1, q 2) = (1.5p 2  * , 1.5A  * , 0q 1  * , 0q 2  *), Sce 2: (p 2, A, q 1, q 2) = (1.5p 2  * , 2A  * , 0q 1  * , 0q 2  *), Sce 7: (p 2, A, q 1, q 2) = (2p 2  * , 1.5A  * , 0q 1  * , 0q 2  *) and Sce 8: (p 2, A, q 1, q 2) = (2p 2  * , 2A  * , 0q 1  * , 0q 2  *) have the MVCCC larger than 10 million at 328, 313, 327 and 312 days (Fig. 8A, STable 3).
T163 13778-14083 Sentence denotes In fact, they have the two outbreaks of the disease with the confirmed cases having the first peak value as the baseline result at Feb 10, 2020 and the second peak values larger than 1 million at 142 days, 132 days, 141 days and 130 days for Sce1, Sce 2, Sce 7 and Sce 8, respectively (Fig. 9A, STable 3).
T164 14084-14211 Sentence denotes The magnified figure in the period of Jan 27, 2020-Apr 26, 2020 clearly displays the second outbreak of this disease (Fig. 9A).
T165 14212-14393 Sentence denotes Moreover, the weak changes of the four scenarios in the quarantine rates or around the time point t 1  = 10, the second outbreak also resulted in the second outbreak of the disease.
T166 14394-14689 Sentence denotes If the control measures employed as the four scenarios after the other three time points t 1  = 20, t 1  = 28, and t 1  = 38, the MVCCC are rapidly decreased with still larger than the baseline results, and the DDE are prolonged except the Sce 2 and Sce 8 of t 1  = 28, and t 1  = 38 (STable 4).
T167 14690-14714 Sentence denotes For the other scenarios:
T168 14715-14881 Sentence denotes Sce 3-Sce 6 and Sce 9-Sce 12 of the four time points, the DDE become smaller than the baseline result due to the larger input population and more exposed individuals.
T169 14882-15037 Sentence denotes Moreover, the weaker quarantine rates together with the more input population resulted in the more infected individuals and increased the MVCCC (STable 4).