Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T56 |
0-28 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Model for COVID-19 screening |
T57 |
29-306 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The core model has been described previously (Gostic et al., 2015), but to summarize briefly, it assumes infected travellers can be detained due to the presence of detectable symptoms (fever or cough), or due to self-reporting of exposure risk via questionnaires or interviews. |
T58 |
307-449 |
Sentence |
denotes |
These assumptions are consistent with WHO traveller screening guidelines (World Health Organization, 2020b; World Health Organization, 2020c). |
T59 |
450-744 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Upon screening, travellers fall into one of four categories: (1) symptomatic but not aware of exposure risk, (2) aware of exposure risk but without detectable symptoms, (3) symptomatic and aware that exposure may have occurred, and (4) neither symptomatic nor aware of exposure risk (Figure 1). |
T60 |
745-932 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Travellers in the final category are fundamentally undetectable, and travellers in the second category are only detectable if aware that they have been exposed and willing to self report. |
T61 |
933-942 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Figure 1. |
T62 |
944-1016 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Model of traveller screening process, adapted from Gostic et al. (2015). |
T63 |
1017-1550 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Infected travellers fall into one of five categories: (A) Cases aware of exposure risk and with fever or cough are detectable in both symptom screening and questionnaire-based risk screening. (B) Cases aware of exposure risk, but without fever or cough are only detectable using risk screening. (C) Cases with fever or cough, but unaware of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 are only detectable in symptom screening. (D–E) Subclinical cases who are unaware of exposure risk, and individuals that evade screening, are fundamentally undetectable. |
T64 |
1551-1706 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In the model, screening for symptoms occurs prior to questionnaire-based screening for exposure risk, and detected cases do not progress to the next stage. |
T65 |
1707-1828 |
Sentence |
denotes |
This allows us to track the fraction of cases detected using symptom screening or risk screening at arrival or departure. |
T66 |
1829-2466 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Additionally, building on the four detectability classes explained above, the model keeps track of four ways in which screening can miss infected travellers: (1) due to imperfect sensitivity, symptom screening may fail to detect symptoms in travellers that display symptoms; (2) questionnaires may fail to detect exposure risk in travellers aware they have been exposed, owing to deliberate obfuscation or misunderstanding; (3) screening may fail to detect both symptoms and known exposure risk in travellers who have both and (4) travellers not exhibiting symptoms and with no knowledge of their exposure are fundamentally undetectable. |
T67 |
2467-2534 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Here, we only consider infected travellers who submit to screening. |
T68 |
2535-2689 |
Sentence |
denotes |
However, the supplementary app allows users to consider scenarios in which some fraction of infected travellers intentionally evade screening (Figure 1E). |
T69 |
2690-3144 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The probability that an infected person is detectable in a screening program depends on: the incubation period (the time from exposure to onset of detectable symptoms); the proportion of subclinical cases (mild cases that lack fever or cough); the sensitivity of thermal scanners used to detect fever; the fraction of cases aware they have high exposure risk; and the fraction of those cases who would self-report truthfully on a screening questionnaire. |
T70 |
3145-3305 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Further, the distribution of individual times since exposure affects the probability that any single infected traveller has progressed to the symptomatic stage. |
T71 |
3306-3442 |
Sentence |
denotes |
If the source epidemic is still growing, the majority of infected cases will have been recently exposed, and will not yet show symptoms. |
T72 |
3443-3663 |
Sentence |
denotes |
If the source epidemic is no longer growing (stable), times since exposure will be more evenly distributed, meaning that more infected travellers will have progressed through incubation and will show detectable symptoms. |
T73 |
3664-3871 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We used methods described previously to estimate the distribution of individual times since exposure in a growing or stable epidemic, given various values of the reproductive number R0 (Gostic et al., 2015). |
T74 |
3872-4068 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Briefly, early in the epidemic when the number of cases is still growing, the model draws on epidemiological theory to assume that the fraction of cases who are recently exposed increases with R0. |
T75 |
4069-4429 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The distribution of times since exposure is truncated at a maximum value, which corresponds epidemiologically to the maximum time from exposure to patient isolation, after which point we assume cases will not attempt to travel. (Isolation may occur due to hospitalization, or due to confinement at home in response to escalating symptoms or COVID-19 diagnosis. |
T76 |
4430-4697 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In the non-travel context, this would correspond to cases that have been hospitalized or otherwise diagnosed and isolated.) Here, we approximate the maximum time from exposure to isolation as the sum of the mean incubation time, and mean time from onset to isolation. |
T77 |
4698-4899 |
Sentence |
denotes |
To consider the epidemiological context of a stable epidemic in the source population we assume times since exposure follow a uniform distribution across the time period between exposure and isolation. |