Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T43 |
0-7 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Results |
T44 |
9-124 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Estimation of the epidemic trend assuming that the prevention and control measures are insufficient in Wuhan, China |
T45 |
125-275 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Assuming the epidemic continues to develop with R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.19 from 1 December 2019, the number of infections will continue to rise (Fig. 1). |
T46 |
276-415 |
Sentence |
denotes |
By the end of February 2020, COVID-19 cases would be 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1, respectively. |
T47 |
416-494 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Detailed calculation process is included in the Materials and methods section. |
T48 |
495-615 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Fig. 1 Estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (December 2019–February 2020, R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1). |
T49 |
616-788 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In all, 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989 represent the estimated number of COVID-19 cases by the end of February 2020 in Wuhan, China, with R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1, respectively. |
T50 |
790-903 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Estimation of the epidemic trend assuming that the prevention and control measures are sufficient in Wuhan, China |
T51 |
904-954 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The first phase (1 December 2019–23 January 2020): |
T52 |
955-1054 |
Sentence |
denotes |
It was the early phase of the epidemic when a few prevention and control measures were implemented. |
T53 |
1055-1158 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The number of infections in Wuhan, China reached 17,656–25,875 by the end of this phase with R0 as 3.1. |
T54 |
1159-1210 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The second phase (24 January 2020–2 February 2020): |
T55 |
1211-1337 |
Sentence |
denotes |
From 23 January 2020 on, public transportations to and from Wuhan, as well as public transportation within Wuhan were stopped. |
T56 |
1338-1447 |
Sentence |
denotes |
While gathering events inside Wuhan was banned, quarantine and isolation were gradually established in Wuhan. |
T57 |
1448-1539 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The number of infections was 32,061–46,905 by the end of this phase as Rt decreased to 2.6. |
T58 |
1540-1591 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The third phase (3 February 2020–15 February 2020): |
T59 |
1592-1769 |
Sentence |
denotes |
New infectious disease hospitals and mobile cabin hospitals came into service and many medical and public health teams from other provinces and cities in China arrived in Wuhan. |
T60 |
1770-1844 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The quarantine and isolation at the community level were further enhanced. |
T61 |
1845-1939 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The number of infections would reach 53,070–77,390 if Rt could be reduced sequentially to 1.9. |
T62 |
1940-1984 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The fourth phase (from 15 February 2020 on): |
T63 |
1985-2085 |
Sentence |
denotes |
All of the most restrict public health measures may need a longest incubation period to take effect. |
T64 |
2086-2253 |
Sentence |
denotes |
If Rt could be gradually reduced to 0.9 or 0.5 in the fourth phase, the epidemic peaks and inflection points might occur in Wuhan, China on 23 February or 19 February. |
T65 |
2254-2360 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The number of infections would be 58,077–84,520 or 55,869–81,393 with Rt = 0.9 or 0.5, respectively (Figs. |
T66 |
2361-2370 |
Sentence |
denotes |
2 and 3). |
T67 |
2371-2493 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Fig. 2 Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (1 December 2019–30 April 2020, E = 20I). |
T68 |
2494-2833 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In all, 55,869 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 19 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.5; 58,077 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 23 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.9; E: number of exposed cases; I: number of infectious cases; E was assumed to be 20 times of I at baseline. |
T69 |
2834-2956 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Fig. 3 Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (1 December 2019–30 April 2020, E = 30I). |
T70 |
2957-3296 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In all, 81,393 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 19 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.5; 84,520 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 23 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.9; E: number of exposed cases; I: number of infectious cases; E was assumed to be 30 times of I at baseline. |
T71 |
3297-3472 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Our model predicted 2323–3381 deaths in Wuhan, China when we assumed Rt as 0.9 and the percent of deaths as 4%; 2235–3256 deaths when we assumed Rt as 0.5 at the fourth phase. |
T72 |
3473-3534 |
Sentence |
denotes |
An average of 2279–3318 deaths were also estimated (Table 1). |
T73 |
3535-3627 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Table 1 Estimating the number of deaths of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (Rt = 0.9 or 0.5). |
T74 |
3628-3653 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Rt = 0.9 Rt = 0.5 Average |
T75 |
3654-3707 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Total cases 58,077–84,520 55,869–81,393 56,973–82,957 |
T76 |
3708-3749 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Deaths (4%) 2323–3381 2235–3256 2279–3318 |
T77 |
3750-3792 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Deaths (10%) 5808–8452 5587–8139 5697–8296 |
T78 |
3793-3844 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The estimated percent of deaths is about 4–10%6,24. |
T79 |
3845-4100 |
Sentence |
denotes |
When we assumed Rt as 0.9 and the percent of deaths 10% based on calculation of case fatality rate (CFR) at early stage of the epidemic6, our model predicted 5808–8452 deaths in Wuhan, China; 5587–8139 deaths when we assumed Rt as 0.5 at the fourth phase. |
T80 |
4101-4152 |
Sentence |
denotes |
An average of 5697–8296 deaths were also estimated. |