PMC:7001239 / 10676-13242 JSONTXT 7 Projects

Annnotations TAB TSV DIC JSON TextAE

Id Subject Object Predicate Lexical cue
T80 0-25 Sentence denotes Strengths and limitations
T81 26-248 Sentence denotes The scarcity of available data, especially on case counts by date of disease onset as well as contact tracing, greatly limits the precision of our estimates and does not yet allow for reliable forecasts of epidemic spread.
T82 249-412 Sentence denotes Case counts provided by local authorities in the early stage of an emerging epidemic are notoriously unreliable as reporting rates are unstable and vary with time.
T83 413-561 Sentence denotes This is due to many factors such as the initial lack of proper diagnosis tools, the focus on the more severe cases or the overcrowding of hospitals.
T84 562-768 Sentence denotes We avoided this surveillance bias by relying on an indirect estimate of epidemic size on 18 January, based on cases identified in foreign countries before quarantine measures were implemented on 23 January.
T85 769-952 Sentence denotes This estimated range of epidemic size relies itself on several assumptions, including that all infected individuals who travelled from Wuhan to other countries have been detected [6].
T86 953-1088 Sentence denotes This caveat may lead to an underestimation of transmissibility, especially considering the recent reports about asymptomatic cases [4].
T87 1089-1302 Sentence denotes Conversely, our results do not depend on any assumption about the existence of asymptomatic transmission, and only reflect the possible combinations of transmission events that lead to the situation on 18 January.
T88 1303-1392 Sentence denotes Our analysis, while limited because of the scarcity of data, has two important strengths.
T89 1393-1839 Sentence denotes Firstly, it is based on the simulation of a wide range of possibilities regarding epidemic parameters and allows for the full propagation on the final estimates of the many remaining uncertainties regarding 2019-nCoV and the situation in Wuhan: on the actual size of the epidemic, on the size of the initial zoonotic event at the wet market, on the date(s) of the initial animal-to-human transmission event(s) and on the generation time interval.
T90 1840-2005 Sentence denotes As it accounts for all these uncertainties, our analysis provides a summary of the current state of knowledge about the human-to-human transmissibility of 2019-nCoV.
T91 2006-2185 Sentence denotes Secondly, its focus on the possibility of superspreading events by using negative-binomial offspring distributions appears relevant in the context of emerging coronaviruses [7,8].
T92 2186-2385 Sentence denotes While our estimate of k remains imprecise, the simulations suggest that very low values of k < 0.1 are less likely than higher values < 0.1 that correspond to a more homogeneous transmission pattern.
T93 2386-2566 Sentence denotes However, values of k in the range of 0.1–0.2 are still compatible with a small risk of occurrence of large superspreading events, especially impactful in hospital settings [15,16].