PubMed:32240634 JSONTXT 12 Projects

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Id Subject Object Predicate Lexical cue
TextSentencer_T1 0-78 Sentence denotes Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.
TextSentencer_T2 79-90 Sentence denotes BACKGROUND:
TextSentencer_T3 91-268 Sentence denotes In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude.
TextSentencer_T4 269-357 Sentence denotes We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases.
TextSentencer_T5 358-366 Sentence denotes METHODS:
TextSentencer_T6 367-711 Sentence denotes We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020).
TextSentencer_T7 712-843 Sentence denotes These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital).
TextSentencer_T8 844-1126 Sentence denotes We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment.
TextSentencer_T9 1127-1251 Sentence denotes We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China.
TextSentencer_T10 1252-1424 Sentence denotes Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio.
TextSentencer_T11 1425-1610 Sentence denotes Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation.
TextSentencer_T12 1611-1620 Sentence denotes FINDINGS:
TextSentencer_T13 1621-1887 Sentence denotes Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1).
TextSentencer_T14 1888-2074 Sentence denotes In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80).
TextSentencer_T15 2075-2430 Sentence denotes However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7-7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2-15·9) in those aged 80 years or older.
TextSentencer_T16 2431-2666 Sentence denotes Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4-3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8-11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]).
TextSentencer_T17 2667-2783 Sentence denotes Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing profile with age.
TextSentencer_T18 2784-2960 Sentence denotes Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0-7·6) in those aged 80 years or older.
TextSentencer_T19 2961-2976 Sentence denotes INTERPRETATION:
TextSentencer_T20 2977-3128 Sentence denotes These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death.
TextSentencer_T21 3129-3166 Sentence denotes FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.