PubMed:32113196 JSONTXT 36 Projects

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Id Subject Object Predicate Lexical cue
TextSentencer_T1 0-95 Sentence denotes [Study on assessing early epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease epidemic in China].
TextSentencer_T2 96-106 Sentence denotes Objective:
TextSentencer_T3 107-368 Sentence denotes To study the early dynamics of the epidemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China from 15 to 31 January, 2020, and estimate the corresponding epidemiological parameters (incubation period, generation interval and basic reproduction number) of the epidemic.
TextSentencer_T4 369-377 Sentence denotes Methods:
TextSentencer_T5 378-580 Sentence denotes By means of Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions methods, we estimated the probability distribution of the incubation period and generation interval data obtained from the reported COVID-19 cases.
TextSentencer_T6 581-656 Sentence denotes Moreover, the AIC criterion was used to determine the optimal distribution.
TextSentencer_T7 657-923 Sentence denotes Considering the epidemic is ongoing, the exponential growth model was used to fit the incidence data of COVID-19 from 10 to 31 January, 2020, and exponential growth method, maximum likelihood method and SEIR model were used to estimate the basic reproduction number.
TextSentencer_T8 924-932 Sentence denotes Results:
TextSentencer_T9 933-1063 Sentence denotes Early COVID-19 cases kept an increase in exponential growth manner before 26 January, 2020, then the increase trend became slower.
TextSentencer_T10 1064-1110 Sentence denotes The average incubation period was 5.01 (95%CI:
TextSentencer_T11 1111-1176 Sentence denotes 4.31-5.69) days; the average generation interval was 6.03 (95%CI:
TextSentencer_T12 1177-1193 Sentence denotes 5.20-6.91) days.
TextSentencer_T13 1194-1256 Sentence denotes The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 3.74 (95%CI:
TextSentencer_T14 1257-1281 Sentence denotes 3.63-3.87), 3.16 (95%CI:
TextSentencer_T15 1282-1310 Sentence denotes 2.90-3.43), and 3.91 (95%CI:
TextSentencer_T16 1311-1353 Sentence denotes 3.71-4.11) by three methods, respectively.
TextSentencer_T17 1354-1366 Sentence denotes Conclusions:
TextSentencer_T18 1367-1544 Sentence denotes The Gamma distribution fits both the generation interval and incubation period best, and the mean value of generation interval is 1.02 day longer than that of incubation period.
TextSentencer_T19 1545-1765 Sentence denotes The relatively high basic reproduction number indicates that the epidemic is still serious; Based on our analysis, the turning point of the epidemic would be seen on 26 January, the growth rate would be lower afterwards.