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CORD-19:99878b27abf822d05c58aca2be825dd6652e9551 JSONTXT 8 Projects

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Id Subject Object Predicate Lexical cue
T1 0-8 Sentence denotes Abstract
T2 9-233 Sentence denotes The global energy system is in transition to a new energy order characterized by the emergence of the United States as a net oil exporter, the shale revolution and the gradual shift towards low-carbon sources and renewables.
T3 234-331 Sentence denotes The shale boom in the US was a game changer, as was the election of Donald Trump as US president.
T4 332-442 Sentence denotes Trump pushed an ambitious "America first" agenda aimed at transforming the US into a global energy superpower.
T5 443-555 Sentence denotes The purpose of this article is two-fold: first, it outlines the key pillars of the emerging global energy order.
T6 556-740 Sentence denotes Second, it underscores the role of contingent events, a factor neglected by some previous studies because of their reliance on what A.O.Hirschman (1970) termed "paradigmatic thinking".
T7 741-958 Sentence denotes The recent transition in the international energy order is an outcome of two paramount, yet largely unanticipated events: the shale revolution in the US and Trump's neomercantilist and unilateralist economic policies.
T8 959-1101 Sentence denotes While contingencies are an inherent feature of social reality, the scenario approach can be a useful heuristic for dealing with uncertainties.
T9 1102-1206 Sentence denotes The article concludes by discussing the implications of these developments for global energy governance.
T10 1208-1354 Sentence denotes The shale revolution in oil and natural gas development transformed the United States into the world's leading energy producer and a net exporter.
T11 1355-1477 Sentence denotes The administration of President Trump is set to convert the US from a net energy importer into a global energy superpower.
T12 1478-1707 Sentence denotes To this end, the US has increased exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asian markets and pushed European countries to buy natural gas from US producers as a putative way to reduce European dependence on Russian gas supplies.
T13 1708-1844 Sentence denotes At the same time, the US withdrew from a number of binding international environmental commitments, notably the Paris Climate Agreement.
T14 1845-1960 Sentence denotes In dealing with unfriendly oil exporters, Venezuela and Iran, the US imposed sanctions and used coercive diplomacy.
T15 1961-2269 Sentence denotes Meanwhile, energy transitions have been underway in a host of countries, and a growing number of industrialized economies have taken steps to shift away from the use of fossil fuels and to increase the share of renewable sources (biofuels, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind power) in their energy mixes.
T16 2270-2422 Sentence denotes The combination of these factors contributed to a major systemic transformation in global energy with wide-ranging and long-lasting policy implications.
T17 2423-2597 Sentence denotes Some experts believe that this profound shift will "redraw the geopolitical map of the 21 st century" (IRENA, 2019, 14) and undermine the power of long-term energy producers.
T18 2598-2623 Sentence denotes This raises the question:
T19 2624-2693 Sentence denotes What implications do these changes have for the global energy system?
T20 2694-2933 Sentence denotes And what accounts for the recent shift in the international energy regime to a new energy order characterized by the rise of the US as a net energy exporter, the relative abundance of energy resources and the persistence of low oil prices?
T21 2934-3278 Sentence denotes While several scholars (e.g. Blackwill and O'Sullivan, 2014; Van de Graaf and Bradshaw, 2018) have addressed the geopolitical and political-economic implications of the changing global energy order, they appear to have overlooked some important aspects of Trump's "America first" energy doctrine and its significance for global energy politics.
T22 3279-3443 Sentence denotes This article provides a fuller description of the changes underpinning the Trump administration's energy policy and their consequences for the global energy system.
T23 3444-3727 Sentence denotes With respect to the second questionpertaining to the recent shifta new strand in the International Political Economy (IPE) of energy (Hancock and Vivoda, 2014) has emerged to address the question of energy regime transitions (see e.g. Goldthau, 2013; Van de Graaf and Colgan, 2016) .
T24 3728-3937 Sentence denotes Drawing on Krasner's earlier formulation, Colgan and collaborators (2012) argue that shifts in energy regime complexes follow a path-dependent pattern and are best captured by the punctuated equilibrium model.
T25 3938-4179 Sentence denotes In their account, institutional change is driven by the degree of dissatisfaction of major oil importing or exporting states which in turn is determined by rational calculations of substantial revenue loss that the government risks to incur.
T26 4180-4394 Sentence denotes They argue that " [d] uring periods of high oil prices (e.g., 1973-81; 2003-2010) , we expect to see dissatisfied energy-importing states acting to change institutional arrangements to handle contemporary problems.
T27 4395-4587 Sentence denotes Conversely, in periods of low oil prices (e.g., 1985-86, 1998) , we expect to see dissatisfied energy-exporting states acting to change institutional arrangements" (Colgan et al., 2012, 133) .
T28 4588-4808 Sentence denotes While the punctuated equilibrium model of energy transitions captures some aspects of global energy shifts, it omits the complexity of large-scale transformations and the element of contingency inherent in social change.
T29 4809-4893 Sentence denotes This stems partly from the tendency of social scientists to adhere to what Albert O.
T30 4894-5078 Sentence denotes Hirschman (1970) referred to as "paradigmatic thinking" -i.e. the belief that social events are governed by "iron laws" and therefore can be uncovered by applying "rigid models" (335).
T31 5079-5458 Sentence denotes In the spirit of Hirschman, the article advocates "a little less straitjacketing of the future, a little more allowance for the unexpected" (Hirschman, 1970, 338) , and highlights the scenario analysis (Wack, 1985a (Wack, , 1985b Schoemaker, 1991 Schoemaker, , 2004 , as a more useful approach to understanding and predicting major transitions in the international energy system.
T32 5459-5626 Sentence denotes Recent developments challenge the view that changes are always brought forward in the shape of institutionalization, as Trump's unilateralism made it abundantly clear.
T33 5627-5737 Sentence denotes The new status of the US in the nascent oil order evades easy categorization into an exporter-importer binary.
T34 5738-5935 Sentence denotes Bolstered by the surge in shale gas and oil production, the US has opted out of multilateral climate commitments and rolled back about 90 federal environmental regulations (Popovich et al., 2019) .
T35 5936-6064 Sentence denotes The Trump administration has acted unilaterally, rather than through international organizations, to pursue US energy interests.
T36 6065-6279 Sentence denotes On the one hand, there is a certain degree of continuity on climate policy with previous US administrations ( MacNeil and Paterson, 2020) , and there were precedents, notably the failure of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
T37 6280-6556 Sentence denotes On the other hand, the Trump administration's rollbacks on Obama-era environmental policies and the retreat from a number of international environmental treaties (Seo, 2019) is a manifestation of the erosion of the international energy regime as a global regulatory framework.
T38 6557-6724 Sentence denotes Most importantly, Trump's actions undermine US leadership of international climate regime and hurts multilateral efforts to curb greenhouse emissions (Bordoff, 2017) .
T39 6725-6917 Sentence denotes This observation is generally in line with the contention in recent International Relations scholarship that the US-led post-World War II international liberal order appears to be in disarray.
T40 6918-7143 Sentence denotes After the election of Trump in 2016, the US displayed apparent aversion to membership and participation in multilateral trade regimes, military security alliances, human rights and environmental agreements (Ikenberry, 2018) .
T41 7144-7464 Sentence denotes The article advances the following arguments: first, an emerging energy order is much less institutionalized than is commonly believed; in fact, it would be fair to say that the global energy regime is being fragmented and diluted by Trump's efforts to pull the US out of the nexus of existing multilateral institutions.
T42 7465-7680 Sentence denotes Second, this shift towards a new, poorly-institutionalized energy order has been driven by two, largely contingent events: the fracking (technological) revolution in the US and the election of Trump as US president.
T43 7681-7843 Sentence denotes Both events were omitted by existing theoretical models in energy research or political science literature respectively due to their rigid paradigmatic framework.
T44 7844-8045 Sentence denotes The analysis in this article is based on a systematic review of a variety of sources of empirical data including media reports, policy documents and expert assessments produced by industry specialists.
T45 8046-8249 Sentence denotes In examining the shifts in the global energy order, the article seeks to gain a better understanding of the intervening causal mechanisms connecting certain initial conditions to the outcome of interest.
T46 8250-8443 Sentence denotes Process-tracing (Mahoney, 2012) allows to track the ways in which the shale revolution, Trump's energy policies and the shift towards low-carbon sources and renewables shape a new energy order.
T47 8444-8616 Sentence denotes New technologies of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (aka fracking) allowed US energy companies to tap into vast reserves of unconventional (tight) oil and gas.
T48 8617-8826 Sentence denotes The surge in shale oil and gas production has transformed the US energy industry and turned the US into an energy superpower capable of competing with traditional energy producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia.
T49 8827-8922 Sentence denotes Furthermore, the ascent of the US as a new energy superpower is reshaping the world energy map.
T50 8923-9090 Sentence denotes The increase in energy production in the US and other new producers means there is enough oil to match the world demand for fossil fuels keeping global oil prices low.
T51 9091-9276 Sentence denotes Lower oil prices appear to weaken the geopolitical leverage that traditional energy exporters -OPEC plus Russiaused to enjoy for almost half a century (Blackwill and O'Sullivan, 2014) .
T52 9277-9484 Sentence denotes Moreover, a bigger share of renewables and low-carbon sources in the energy mixes of leading industrialized economies is expected to make a greater number of countries energy self-sufficient in the long run.
T53 9485-9646 Sentence denotes Lower energy prices already hit hard the fiscal balances of traditional oil and gas producers, most of which are governed by authoritarian regimes (Ross, 2014) .
T54 9647-9818 Sentence denotes Fiscal dependence on oil revenue makes oil-dependent states vulnerable to external shocks, and their survival hinges on the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF).
T55 9819-9929 Sentence denotes SWFs are state-owned investment funds that accumulate, among other assets, state revenues from mineral wealth.
T56 9930-10102 Sentence denotes These reserve funds provide autocratic governments with a protection cushion shielding them against adverse oil price shocks in periods of oil price hikes (Ahmadov, 2019) .
T57 10103-10247 Sentence denotes In the worst case scenario, the consequences of the coveted transition to renewables and low-carbon alternatives for oil exporters will be dire.
T58 10248-10419 Sentence denotes In the long run, a decline in fossil fuel demand is likely to push the oil price down making extraction of such resources commercially unattractive (Manley et al., 2017) .
T59 10420-10556 Sentence denotes While renewables or low-carbon sources have grown fast, an even partial transition to renewables by 2050 seems unrealistic (REN21 2017).
T60 10557-10711 Sentence denotes The global fossil fuel system, according to IRENA (2019, 64), relies on a massive built-in infrastructure of oil wells, pipelines, tankers and refineries.
T61 10712-10888 Sentence denotes This stock of physical assets worth US $25 trillion may be stranded due to technological innovations and government efforts to switch to renewables and low-carbon alternatives.
T62 10889-11284 Sentence denotes Van de Graaf and Bradshaw (2018) predict that the established oil producers might "end up with lower future revenues from [their] assets (the bursting of the 'carbon bubble'), capital investments in oil infrastructure that cannot be recovered because of reduced demand or reduced prices ('stranded assets') and existing oil reserves that are left unexploited ('unburnable oil reserves')" (1322).
T63 11285-11557 Sentence denotes On the other hand, the interlocking web of infrastructure, technologies and institutions underpinning the existing fossil fuel-based system creates a path-dependent process of 'carbon lock-in' which inhibits transitions toward low-carbon alternatives (Seto et al., 2016) .
T64 11558-11704 Sentence denotes According to available geological estimates, there are large reserves of recoverable shale oil and gas in the United States, Canada and worldwide.
T65 11705-11959 Sentence denotes Global estimates for shale oil are 345 billion barrels (Bbbl) and for shale gas are at least 100 trillion cubic ft 3 (Tcf); estimates for US recoverable shale oil are 58 Bbbl and estimated shale gas reserves are 600-1000 Tcf (Jackson et al., 2014, 329) .
T66 11960-12107 Sentence denotes Given the 345 Bbbl shale-oil reserves at the price of oil US$100/ barrel, shale-oil reserves are worth US$35 trillion (Jackson et al., 2014, 329) .
T67 12108-12209 Sentence denotes For comparison, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) held $7.45 trillion in total assets (as of March 2018).
T68 12210-12411 Sentence denotes Norway's Pension Fund Global with US$1.06 trillion is the world's largest SFW followed by China Investment Corporation, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Kuwait Investment Authority (Milhench, 2018) .
T69 12412-12642 Sentence denotes The shale boom during the recent commodity super-cycle led to the renewal of US oil production where output rose from 5 million bbd in 2008 to an average of more than 8.5 million b/d in 2014 and now stands at about 10 million bbd.
T70 12643-12758 Sentence denotes Shale oil production of about 6.4 million bbd comprised about 60 percent of total US crude production in 2018 (U.S.
T71 12759-12807 Sentence denotes Energy Information Administration, 2018, March).
T72 12808-12895 Sentence denotes A boom in shale energy production brought the US close to being energy self-sufficient.
T73 12896-13018 Sentence denotes The US has turned into a major exporter of oil and natural gas with far-reaching implications for the global energy order.
T74 13019-13142 Sentence denotes For the first time since 1950s, the US became a net exporter of petroleum in 2011, and net exporter of natural gas in 2017.
T75 13143-13337 Sentence denotes Its energy imports amounted to about 3.6 percent of total energy consumption, most petroleum imports coming from Canada (43%), Saudi Arabia (9%), Mexico (7%), Venezuela (6%), and Iraq (5%) (U.S.
T76 13338-13387 Sentence denotes Energy Information Administration, May 9, 2019b).
T77 13388-13561 Sentence denotes For the first time since the 1970s, US oil production hit its record level of 10 million bbd in 2018 turning the US into one of the largest crude oil producers in the world.
T78 13562-13692 Sentence denotes It is estimated that at current production levels, the US will become the world's largest oil producer by 2023, overtaking Russia.
T79 13693-13793 Sentence denotes By 2023, US crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million bbd (White House, 2018; .
T80 13794-13954 Sentence denotes The accompanying rise in exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is transforming the US into a global gas superpower (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2017).
T81 13955-14385 Sentence denotes In implementing its new energy vision, the Trump Administration used executive actions in several directions including the lifting of environmental and other restrictions on the domestic energy sector, granting permissions to construct new pipeline infrastructure (the Dakota Access Pipeline, the Keystone XL Pipeline, and the New Burgos Pipeline) and promoting American energy exports in foreign markets (Anderson et al., 2017) .
T82 14386-14774 Sentence denotes During the 2016 presidential race, Trump's campaign platform "Making America Great Again" promised, under the section titled "Protecting American Workers", to lift the Obama-era "restrictions on production of US$50 trillion dollars' worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal" (Donald Trump's Contract with the American Voter, 2016).
T83 14775-15043 Sentence denotes After assuming office, Trump's energy policy aimed to roll back dozens of environmental regulations (Ritchie, 2018) with serious consequences for global warming and climate change. (Diagram 1 charts the causal linkages and key characteristics of the new energy order).
T84 15044-15209 Sentence denotes On the climate change front, the Trump Administration acted unilaterally to retreat from multilateral institutions including the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
T85 15210-15384 Sentence denotes On several occasions in his speeches, President Trump questioned the validity of scientific warnings about global warming and rejected the climate change thesis (BBC, 2018) .
T86 15385-15553 Sentence denotes In recent years, there has been a reversal on a number of earlier environmental commitments and a rollback on climate change regulations and agreements (Seo, 2019, 1) .
T87 15554-15799 Sentence denotes According to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the US, China and other large CO 2 emitting countries agreed to replace coal with natural gas and committed themselves to encourage the use of renewable energy sources in their respective countries.
T88 15800-15990 Sentence denotes However, in 2017, Trump announced that the US will pull out of the Paris Agreement in 2020 (Milman et al., 2017) , a move that echoes the US Senate's rejection of the Kyoto protocol in 1997.
T89 15991-16189 Sentence denotes In July 1997, the Senate passed the 95-0 Byrd-Hagel resolution which stated that the US should not sign the Kyoto Protocol unless developing countries accept limitations on greenhouse gas emissions.
T90 16190-16318 Sentence denotes Although President Clinton signed the Kyoto protocol in 1998, he refrained from submitting it to the US Senate for ratification.
T91 16319-16449 Sentence denotes It was clear that the Byrd-Hagel resolution adopted earlier made Senate ratification of a major climate change agreement unlikely.
T92 16450-16459 Sentence denotes George W.
T93 16460-16612 Sentence denotes Bush did not endorse the Kyoto climate mitigation policies, and in March 2001, the US officially repudiated the Kyoto Protocol (Lee et al., 2001, 387) .
T94 16613-16904 Sentence denotes While the Bush presidency rejected the Kyoto Protocoldisplaying US longstanding aversion to multilateral action (Depledge, 2005) , the Trump administration went one step further by assaulting federal environmental rules and repealing Obama-era multilateral commitments (Jotzo et al., 2018) .
T95 16905-17034 Sentence denotes In fact, the Trump administration's plan stipulates rolling back more than 90 environmental regulations (Popovich et al., 2019) .
T96 17035-17231 Sentence denotes The US retreat from its climate change commitments, while not unprecedented, dealt a blow to the multilateral mode of global energy governance and international efforts to mitigate global warming.
T97 17232-17380 Sentence denotes With improvements in liquefaction and transportation of shale gas, international markets are now flush with LNG gas produced by a greater Diagram 1.
T98 17381-17429 Sentence denotes Schematic representation of the causal argument.
T99 17430-17437 Sentence denotes Source:
T100 17438-17472 Sentence denotes Author's own. number of countries.
T101 17473-17738 Sentence denotes The 2004-2014 commodity price boom encouraged companies to invest in exploration and production in previously technologically inaccessible areas, such as deep shelves of the Caspian Sea and offshore fields in Latin America, West Africa and the Arctic (Kemp, 2015) .
T102 17739-17898 Sentence denotes The increase of supply from traditional sources and the diversification of energy sources led to excess supply of fossil fuels in international energy markets.
T103 17899-18039 Sentence denotes For example, in 2018, the so-called Big Three (Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US) saw oil output reach record levels (IEA, 2018; IEA, 2018b) .
T104 18040-18160 Sentence denotes The oversupply of oil and gas from North American sources was one of the drivers for the fall in oil prices in mid-2014.
T105 18161-18212 Sentence denotes This low-price constellation continues to this day.
T106 18213-18423 Sentence denotes The Brent crude prices that averaged US $111 per barrel (bbl) in 2011-2012 fell to as low as 52 $/bbl in 2015 and hovered around 44-71 $/bbl in the following three years (BP Statistical Review of Energy, 2019).
T107 18424-18546 Sentence denotes The global outbreak of coronavirus since the start of 2020 and shrinking oil demand have driven crude prices further down.
T108 18547-18753 Sentence denotes On March 6, 2020, at an OPEC þ meeting in Vienna Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to negotiate production cuts of 1.5 million bbl/d which caused Brent crude prices to plunge to below 36 $/bbl (Kotsev, 2020) .
T109 18754-18918 Sentence denotes In November 2018, President Trump boasted that the fall in oil prices was due to the US policy to break up the price-setting monopoly of OPEC (DiChristopher, 2018).
T110 18919-19079 Sentence denotes Trump's dislike of OPEC and its capacity to influence the market price of oil reflects the changing role and self-image of the US as an "energy dominant" power.
T111 19080-19220 Sentence denotes Under Trump's administration, the US economic policy with regards to foreign economic relations shifted towards a more protectionist stance.
T112 19221-19291 Sentence denotes A new energy doctrine was formulated as "America First" energy policy.
T113 19292-19490 Sentence denotes Described as neo-mercantilist, the Trump administration's approach to foreign trade is built on a zero-sum game worldview in which one party's gain is seen as another party's loss (Stiglitz, 2018) .
T114 19491-19586 Sentence denotes Mirroring the change in economic thinking, US energy policy also underwent substantial changes.
T115 19587-19778 Sentence denotes The overarching goals of a new American energy policy seek to turn the US into a major oil and gas producer and to promote the commercial interests of American domestic energy firms overseas.
T116 19779-19958 Sentence denotes In other words, the Trump administration has pursued the goal of ensuring America's energy self-sufficiency and "energy dominance" by reducing its dependence on foreign suppliers.
T117 19959-20258 Sentence denotes Speaking at the "Unleashing American Energy" event in Washington, D.C, on June 29, 2017, Trump unveiled his plans to lift Obama-era energy restrictions and reorienting the US government away from fighting climate change and towards achieving America's 'energy dominance' (Mikulska and Maher, 2018) .
T118 20259-20368 Sentence denotes Trump declared that "American energy dominance will be declared a strategic economic and foreign policy goal.
T119 20369-20550 Sentence denotes We will become, and stay, totally independent of any need to import energy from the OPEC cartel or any nations hostile to our interests" (Anderson et al., 2017; White House, 2017) .
T120 20551-20829 Sentence denotes A joint op-ed co-authored by senior US energy and environmental policymakers states that "an energy-dominant America means a self-reliant and secure nation, free from the geopolitical turmoil of other nations that seek to use energy as an economic weapon" (Perry et al., 2017) .
T121 20830-20945 Sentence denotes The capacity to leverage oil prices is viewed by US policy makers as an essential element of a new energy doctrine.
T122 20946-21041 Sentence denotes Historically, the only energy producer that had the capacity of a swing power was Saudi Arabia.
T123 21042-21116 Sentence denotes The US never ignored the influence that Saudi Arabia wields on oil prices.
T124 21117-21334 Sentence denotes For example, despite the uproar caused by the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 in Istanbul, the Trump administration continued the traditional US line of courting Saudi Arabia (Wood, 2018) .
T125 21335-21387 Sentence denotes President Trump's first foreign visit was to Riyadh.
T126 21388-21487 Sentence denotes However, the Trump administration made it clear that the US wishes to neutralize the power of OPEC.
T127 21488-21736 Sentence denotes The removal of environmental restrictions is expected, in Trump's view, to make the US "energy independent" and free from dependence on oil imports from "the OPEC cartel or any nations hostile to our interests" (cited in Anderson et al., 2017, 2) .
T128 21737-21889 Sentence denotes The US response to the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 provides another example of the US's energy dominance doctrine in action.
T129 21890-22058 Sentence denotes Trump (2019) announced the US position on Twitter as a triumph of US energy policy referring to the US becoming a new energy exporter and less dependent on Middle East.
T130 22059-22332 Sentence denotes In an attempt to mitigate the sudden surge in oil prices following the strikes on Saudi oil production sites which cut Saudi output by half, Trump authorized the use of oil from US strategic petroleum reserves which happened only three times in the past (Daugherty, 2019) .
T131 22333-22707 Sentence denotes The shale revolution and the advent of the US onto the global energy map have challenged the power of long-term oil exporters, OPEC þ Russia (Morse, 2014) , and Saudi Arabia tried, without success, to drive US shale producers out of the energy market by keeping crude prices low in the mid-2010s and by forging an alliance with Russia on output cuts in 2016 (Kotsev, 2020) .
T132 22708-22911 Sentence denotes As Morse (2016) put it: "We are used to old thinkinga world of producers comprised of OPEC plus critical non-OPEC producers including especially Russia, Mexico, Norway, Oman and maybe a couple of others.
T133 22912-23093 Sentence denotes The new order has rendered OPEC irrelevant, an organization crippled by disruptions and sanctions, with no will to work as one, able to be a negative force by bringing prices down".
T134 23094-23276 Sentence denotes Colgan (2014) , however, noted that contrary to common perception OPEC has never operated as a price-setting cartel due to endemic cheating on production quotas by its member states.
T135 23277-23388 Sentence denotes In reality, Trump's 'energy dominance' doctrine reverses America's long-standing conservationist energy policy.
T136 23389-23477 Sentence denotes Since the 1970s, America shifted from being an oil producer to being an importer of oil.
T137 23478-23499 Sentence denotes In 1956, geologist M.
T138 23500-23664 Sentence denotes King Hubbert formulated the 'peak oil' theory which predicted the bell-shaped curve of US oil production that would peak around 1965 and decline in the early 1970s.
T139 23665-23800 Sentence denotes Peak oil theory underpinned much of US energy strategy in the 1950s and 1960s fueling a concern that oil resources are nearing its end.
T140 23801-23977 Sentence denotes Hence, the strategic significance US policymakers attached to the Persian Gulf energy reserves that have since then been seen as vital to US national security (Hendrix, 2018) .
T141 23978-24295 Sentence denotes Formulated in 1980, the Carter doctrine states that "an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force" (Davis, 2017) .
T142 24296-24463 Sentence denotes In contrast to the current "energy dominance" doctrine, the US policy traditionally focused on domestic conservation and the reliance on supplies from foreign sources.
T143 24464-24695 Sentence denotes In the wake of the 1970s oil shocks, the US enacted the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) and the Export Administration Act of 1979, curtailing the ability of domestic oil producers to export crude (Hendrix, 2018) .
T144 24696-24724 Sentence denotes This ban was lifted in 2015.
T145 24725-24880 Sentence denotes The shift to a major energy exporter forced the US to reconsider its traditional concern with energy security to one that promotes American exports abroad.
T146 24881-25044 Sentence denotes In this regard, US officials pushed energy-importing countries in European and Asian markets to buy US oil and gas or otherwise were threatened to incur penalties.
T147 25045-25162 Sentence denotes In practical terms, the Trump energy doctrine means pressurizing energy-importing countries to open up to US exports.
T148 25163-25266 Sentence denotes US officials have reportedly pushed European and Asian countries to buy US-sourced oil and natural gas.
T149 25267-25375 Sentence denotes The Trump administration has promoted the idea that the US can supply an increased demand for gas in Europe.
T150 25376-25466 Sentence denotes Buying large amounts of American LNG is said to reduce European dependence on Russian gas.
T151 25467-25526 Sentence denotes Germany imports around half of its natural gas from Russia.
T152 25527-25604 Sentence denotes Some Eastern European countries are heavily dependent on Russian gas imports.
T153 25605-25737 Sentence denotes Poland and Lithuania, for example, recently built LNG receiving terminals to tackle their energy dependence on Russia (Reed, 2018) .
T154 25738-26025 Sentence denotes The idea of diversifying the sources of supply as an important component of energy security has been floating around in the past and stimulated a lengthy debate about energy security and the Russian use of "energy weapon" as a foreign policy tool (see, e.g. Orttung and Overland, 2011) .
T155 26026-26199 Sentence denotes This has translated into concrete policy solutions centered on the advocacy of alternative pipeline routes that bypass Russia in the 1990s (Smith Stegen and Kusznir, 2015) .
T156 26200-26413 Sentence denotes The US pushed for or provided diplomatic support for the expansion of Caspian energy projectsnotably the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelineas a solution to Russian monopolization of gas supplies to European markets.
T157 26414-26506 Sentence denotes What is new this time around is that the US is promoting its own exports to foreign markets.
T158 26507-26746 Sentence denotes In 2019, the rise in LNG production turned the US into the world's third-largest LNG exporter, with average exports totaling 4.2 Bcf/d in the first five months of the year, exceeding Malaysia's LNG exports of 3.6 Bcf/d for the same period.
T159 26747-26876 Sentence denotes The US is projected to remain the third-largest LNG exporter (behind Australia and Qatar) in the coming years (Zaretskaya, 2019).
T160 26877-26950 Sentence denotes American LNG exports to Asia surged amid growing demand in Asian markets.
T161 26951-27132 Sentence denotes China's 2016LNG imports rose 30 percent from 2015 to over 25 million tonnes a year, making it the world's third-biggest LNG importer behind Japan and South Korea (Gloystein, 2017) .
T162 27133-27244 Sentence denotes In promoting its exports abroad, the US seeks to limit competition in European markets, especially from Russia.
T163 27245-27426 Sentence denotes Notably, the Trump administration advocated against the construction of a major gas project Nord Stream 2 which, when completed, will deliver large volumes of Russian gas to Europe.
T164 27427-27683 Sentence denotes President Trump made it clear that an increase in American LNG imports by European countries would undermine Russia's monopoly of gas supplies and "make that continent less vulnerable to political blackmail" (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2017, 10).
T165 27684-27860 Sentence denotes President Trump has reportedly criticized European leaders for supporting the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, saying it would give Moscow too much influence over Germany.
T166 27861-28024 Sentence denotes Trump threatened to use sanctions against companies that help construct the gas pipeline project. "It will be a disaster for Europe to ditch Nord Stream 2 under U.
T167 28025-28117 Sentence denotes S. pressure," said Rainer Seele, CEO of Austrian energy company OMV financing Nord Stream 2.
T168 28118-28301 Sentence denotes The Russian gas via Nord Stream 2 is cheaper than US LNG and US pressure, he said, threatens "Europe's independence and security of energy supplies" (Gardner and de Carbonnel, 2019) .
T169 28302-28507 Sentence denotes Other energy experts also doubted that America can compete with cheaper Russian gas: "The cost of liquefying gas in the United States and transporting it to Europe doubles its price for American companies.
T170 28508-28611 Sentence denotes So if they were to sell to customers in Europe at current prices, they would lose money" (Reed, 2018) .
T171 28612-28781 Sentence denotes In July 2019, US Senate foreign relations committee approved a bill that would sanction companies that help the Russian state-owned giant Gazprom complete Nord Stream 2.
T172 28782-28983 Sentence denotes US Senator James Risch said it would sanction companies that install any pipelines for Nord Stream 2 and also TurkStream, a Russian pipeline crossing the Black Sea to Turkey that was finished in March.
T173 28984-29351 Sentence denotes The TurkStream pipeline, which will become operational this year, will supply gas to Turkey and at a later point to the EU through a planned extension through south-eastern Europe. "These pipelines could result in further destabilization of Ukraine and enrichment of the Putin regime, and they put at risk the security of NATO," the senator said (Sevastopulo, 2019) .
T174 29352-29461 Sentence denotes Another distinctive feature of the new American foreign energy policy has been the use of coercive diplomacy.
T175 29462-29604 Sentence denotes The US has tightened sanctions against large energy producing countries that are deemed unfriendly to the US, most notably Venezuela and Iran.
T176 29605-29738 Sentence denotes Venezuela holds the world's largest estimated reserves of petroleum while Iran has the second largest proven reserves of natural gas.
T177 29739-29905 Sentence denotes On Iran, the Trump administration took a more hawkish position towards the Islamic Republic re-imposing sanctions that were lifted as part of an earlier nuclear deal.
T178 29906-30134 Sentence denotes In pursuit of a "maximum pressure" campaign, the Trump administration announced the intention "to get global imports of Iranian crude oil as close to zero as possible", Secretary of State Pompeo (2018) explained in October 2018.
T179 30135-30327 Sentence denotes Since its inception in 1999, the Chavez regime in Venezuela pursued a statist policy in energy resource management which hurt the interests of American oil companies such as Chevron and Citgo.
T180 30328-30467 Sentence denotes In response to explicitly anti-American rhetoric of Chavez, US presidents have been critical of Venezuelan domestic political developments.
T181 30468-30594 Sentence denotes In a recent episode, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Venezuela as a means of punishing the government of Maduro.
T182 30595-30857 Sentence denotes The US government officially recognized Juan Guaid� o, the head of Venezuela's National Assembly, as the country's interim president, and in January 2019, the Trump administration extended the sanctions regime on Venezuela's state oil company, PdVSA (CRS, 2019).
T183 30858-30993 Sentence denotes In February, 2020 the US imposed sanctions on Rosneft Trading, a subsidiary of the Russian state-run energy giant Rosneft (Jake, 2020).
T184 30994-31150 Sentence denotes Rosneft became a target of US sanctions for doing business with the government of President Maduro, whose re-election in 2018 the US considers illegitimate.
T185 31151-31360 Sentence denotes Carbon-emitting fossil fuels are seen as a major cause of global climate change, and the decarbonization of global economic activity has emerged as an imperative to slow the speed of disastrous global warming.
T186 31361-31474 Sentence denotes While fossil fuels remain dominant so far, the share of renewables is incrementally increasing in the energy mix.
T187 31475-31631 Sentence denotes The shift towards low-carbon alternatives and renewables in the long run promises to make an increasing number of energy-importing countries selfsufficient.
T188 31632-31755 Sentence denotes However, countries move to renewables at different rates depending on political will and their access to renewable sources.
T189 31756-32120 Sentence denotes The pace of transition to low-carbon sources will depend on direct access to sufficient wind and solar energy, and any other renewable or low carbon resources (renewables potential), as well as the availability and affordability of renewable energy technologies such as solar thermal technology, wind farms, smart grid systems, and storage capacities (REN21 2017).
T190 32121-32369 Sentence denotes The European Union has made a good progress on shifting towards renewables; the share of renewables in final energy use rose from 8.5% in 2005 to about 17.5% in 2017 and is set to achieve the 2020 target of 20% of energy consumed (Eurostat, 2019) .
T191 32370-32429 Sentence denotes In China, about 8% of energy use is supplied by renewables.
T192 32430-32589 Sentence denotes In the United States, the shift to renewables has been comparably sluggish, and renewables accounts for just about 11% of total energy consumption (EIA, 2019).
T193 32590-32761 Sentence denotes In the near future, the share of renewables in global energy use is expected to grow from the current level of 10.2% (as of 2016) to 12.4% in 2023 (IEA, 2018, October 8) .
T194 32762-32870 Sentence denotes The transition to low-carbon and renewable energy constitutes a key pillar of an emerging new energy system.
T195 32871-32929 Sentence denotes What conceptual lenses help us capture these developments?
T196 32930-33104 Sentence denotes There has been a growing interest in analyzing these changes through the theoretical prism of the political economy of energy in general and energy transitions in particular.
T197 33105-33277 Sentence denotes While existing energy scholarship has focused on how institutions shape the global energy order, it has largely been preoccupied with formal institutions and organizations.
T198 33278-33470 Sentence denotes Few studies that sought to explain the dynamics of shifting energy orders have emphasized path-dependence and noted the possibility of change during critical junctures such as oil price hikes.
T199 33471-33601 Sentence denotes However, as I show below, these approaches have downplayed the role of contingency in driving change in energy regime transitions.
T200 33602-33761 Sentence denotes Whether the global oil order is (or is not) an international regime is still very much a subject to debate in International Political Economy (IPE) literature.
T201 33762-33972 Sentence denotes In the oft-quoted definition by Krasner (1982, 185) , an international regime refers to "principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures around which actor expectations converge in a given issue-area".
T202 33973-34036 Sentence denotes In other words, a regime is a set of binding rules of the game.
T203 34037-34248 Sentence denotes Keohane and Victor (2011, 8) prefer the term "regime complex" defined as an array of "nested (semi-hierarchical) regimes with identifiable cores and non-hierarchical but loosely coupled systems of institutions".
T204 34249-34421 Sentence denotes In their conceptualization, regime complexes occupy the middle ground on a continuum between hierarchically organized regulatory regimes and highly fragmented arrangements.
T205 34422-34958 Sentence denotes Conceptualizing institutional change as path-dependent, they consider the cyclical character of regime complexes whereby secular periods of stability are followed by brief ruptures called "punctuated equilibrium" such as the oil shock of 1973 and the establishment of OPEC that preceded it (Colgan et al., 2012) . "During periods of dissatisfaction triggered by high oil prices or major external shocks," they argue, "we see oil-importing states creating or reforming institutions within the regime complex" (Colgan et al., 2012, 135) .
T206 34959-35088 Sentence denotes The creation of IEA in 1974 following the Arab Embargo a year earlier was a reaction to shortage of gasoline and high oil prices.
T207 35089-35385 Sentence denotes For example, the rise in oil prices since the turn of the millennium incentivized oil importing countries led by the US to create new institutional arrangements including the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Partnership on Energy Efficiency Cooperation (IPEEC).
T208 35386-35511 Sentence denotes In this view, institutional innovation and creation is driven by the dissatisfaction of major players with oil market prices.
T209 35512-35673 Sentence denotes Other scholars use more neutral terms such as 'order' to avoid an implied institutionalist connotation inherent in concepts such as 'regime' or 'regime complex'.
T210 35674-35756 Sentence denotes Van De Graaf and Colgan (2016) suggest the term 'imposed order' for global energy.
T211 35757-36186 Sentence denotes Whether the 'regime' concept (Krasner, 1982) , 'energy regime complex' (Colgan et al., 2012; Goldthau, 2013) or 'global energy governance' (GEG) (Van De Graaf and Colgan, 2016) is being used, consensus seems to be that an 'energy order' does exist, and that it operates at the macro-structural level as a set of rules that constrain and enable the behavior of relevant players, be it national governments or extractive companies.
T212 36187-36319 Sentence denotes Since its emergence around the early 20 th century, a 'global energy order' was first dominated by oil majors (the 'Seven Sisters').
T213 36320-36564 Sentence denotes This 'old' order was replaced around 1970s by a new energy order marked by the founding of OPEC in 1960 and the wave of oil nationalizations that swept across all oil producing countries throughout 1960 -1970s (Van de Graaf and Bradshaw, 2018 .
T214 36565-36680 Sentence denotes The US is still unique in being the only country in the world that operates private ownership on subsoil resources.
T215 36681-36967 Sentence denotes State ownership is viewed as a major cause of the "resource curse" -the observed economic and political underperformance of countries rich in natural resources (especially fossil fuels) (Ross, 1999, 319 ; for a review of the "resource curse" literature, see Ahmadov and Guliyev, 2016) .
T216 36968-37047 Sentence denotes This second, state-centric order, according to Ross (2014) , continues to date.
T217 37048-37212 Sentence denotes Van De Graaf (2016, 18) provides a more nuanced account of energy transformations and dates the current energy order named 'state capitalist' back to the year 2008.
T218 37213-37358 Sentence denotes State capitalism has come to replace the previous 'neoliberal order' that was in place from 1986-2000, according to Van De Graaf's periodization.
T219 37359-37467 Sentence denotes The 'state-capitalist' order (2000s onwards) is characterized by rising oil prices and resource nationalism.
T220 37468-37742 Sentence denotes Resource nationalism refers to the shift of revenueas well as relative power-away from international oil companies in favor of the host government's greater control over national resource development in what Vernon (1971) saw as an 'obsolescing bargain' (Stevens, 2008, 5) .
T221 37743-37923 Sentence denotes This echoes the recent assessment in which national oil companies (NOCs) are viewed as crucial players in key oil producing countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela.
T222 37924-38004 Sentence denotes As of 2017, NOCs estimated to have accumulated combined assets of $3.1 trillion.
T223 38005-38093 Sentence denotes Saudi Aramco alone had net income [in 2018] of over $100 billion (Heller et al., 2019) .
T224 38094-38249 Sentence denotes The central question in the IPE literature has been the question of whether state or market forces dominate in the global energy complex (Goldthau, 2013) .
T225 38250-38482 Sentence denotes In other words, the oil order dominated by private companies came to be replaced by one in which governments took over markets through the creation of national energy companies and the collection of a larger share of fiscal revenue.
T226 38483-38607 Sentence denotes This fueled an academic and policy debate about the relative merits of state versus multinationals in managing oil earnings.
T227 38608-38770 Sentence denotes Scholars like Ross (1999; have argued that state control is associated with suboptimal outcomes and inefficient management of a country's leading resource sector.
T228 38771-38921 Sentence denotes And if state ownership and control is a culprit, privatization has been proposed as a potential solution (Ross, 1999, 320; Luong and Weinthal, 2006) .
T229 38922-39069 Sentence denotes In light of the discussion in the previous section, previous accounts omitted the element of contingency due to their rigid paradigmatic framework.
T230 39070-39263 Sentence denotes First, they take for granted the liberal institutionalist assumption that stateswhether those preserving the status quo or those challenging ithave an interest in an institutionalized response.
T231 39264-39464 Sentence denotes They overlook the possibility that at times states might take action by nonparticipation or withdrawal from institutional arrangements rather than taking a costly action of institutional construction.
T232 39465-39613 Sentence denotes It is clear that the Trump administration opted for unilateral action and disregarded international cooperation on energy and climate change issues.
T233 39614-39916 Sentence denotes While Trump's aversion to international institutions is not unusual in US history (consider the Bush administration's renunciation of the Kyoto Protocol), it is distinguishable by the scale of a rollback on climate obligations and its harmful effects on international efforts to curtail climate change.
T234 39917-40176 Sentence denotes Turning inwards, the Trump administration has been preoccupied with promoting domestic energy companies and lifting pre-existing environmental regulations and commitments including Paris Climate Agreement and disengaging from other multilateral organizations.
T235 40177-40292 Sentence denotes In short, Trump's administration proceeded unilaterally instead of trying to bring about a new institutional model.
T236 40293-40478 Sentence denotes Trump's "America First" international economic policy doctrine in general marks a shift in US policy orientation from liberal internationalism to economic nationalism and protectionism.
T237 40479-40575 Sentence denotes During the post-World War Two era, the US promoted open trade and liberalized financial markets.
T238 40576-40731 Sentence denotes Trump's unilateralism is visible in continuous trade wars (tariffs on Chinese goods) and disputes with the World Trade Organization (WTO) (Frieden, 2019) .
T239 40732-40873 Sentence denotes As Ikenberry (2018) noted, Trump's lack of multilateral institutional commitment is a sign of the broader crisis of liberal internationalism:
T240 40874-40928 Sentence denotes "Today, this liberal international order is in crisis.
T241 40929-41059 Sentence denotes For the first time since the 1930s, the United States has elected a president who is actively hostile to liberal internationalism.
T242 41060-41339 Sentence denotes Trade, alliances, international law, multilateralism, environment, torture and human rights-on all these issues, President Trump has made statements that, if acted upon, would effectively bring to an end America's role as leader of the liberal world order" (Ikenberry, 2018, 7) .
T243 41340-41518 Sentence denotes This implies that the emerging energy order is unlikely to be bound by major powers' consensus about appropriate norms and rules that will be necessary to guide actors' behavior.
T244 41519-41700 Sentence denotes Second, and most importantly, previous models of energy regime transitions omit the role of contingency, such as the change of government leadership or a technological breakthrough.
T245 41701-41820 Sentence denotes Contingent events can have unexpected (and often unanticipated) influence on the development of an international order.
T246 41821-41856 Sentence denotes In his influential 1970 essay, A.O.
T247 41857-41985 Sentence denotes Hirschman discusses how academics' predisposition to use mental shortcuts distorts their understanding of complex social events.
T248 41986-42183 Sentence denotes Profound political change, as Hirschman (1970) pointed out, result from "a unique constellation of highly disparate events" and therefore does not easily lend itself to paradigmatic thinking (339).
T249 42184-42366 Sentence denotes Contingency is not well predicted by institutionalist accounts that seek to fit complex and often disorderly energy and political developments into the preconceived mental framework.
T250 42367-42643 Sentence denotes Because of its focus on formal agreements and regulations, Colgan et al. (2012) seems to dismiss the role of contingent events and the extent to which the interaction of contingency with initial conditions can have far-reaching consequences for the international energy order.
T251 42644-42783 Sentence denotes Contingent events can alter the course of a path-dependent development by shifting its inertia-driven natural course into a different path.
T252 42784-42992 Sentence denotes Once a contingent event has occurred and an alternative path has been taken, the self-reinforcing forces of path-dependence lock in the given path, making it difficult to change (Mahoney and Schensul, 2006) .
T253 42993-43199 Sentence denotes Contingency is "a random happening, an accident, a small occurrence, or an event that cannot be explained or predicted on the basis of a particular theoretical framework" (Mahoney and Schensul, 2006, 461) .
T254 43200-43379 Sentence denotes Given this definition and the discussion above, a path-dependent account that omits the election of Trump and his energy policies cannot capture the change in global energy order.
T255 43380-43584 Sentence denotes Trump's election was a chance event, not anticipated by most political scientists, American political development experts or even pollsters and therefore presents a surprising turn of events and policies.
T256 43585-43634 Sentence denotes It was neither explained nor predicted by theory.
T257 43635-43950 Sentence denotes This fits Mahoney and Schensul's (2006, 462) note that "a contingent event is an occurrence that cannot be explained or predicted in light of one or more theoretical frameworks." The punctuated equilibrium model might not be able to foresee contingency because by its very nature contingency is not easy to predict.
T258 43951-44104 Sentence denotes Yet, without the possibility of contingency to influence causal processes, our theoretical understanding of energy regime transitions will be incomplete.
T259 44105-44206 Sentence denotes Both drivers of the recent energy order shift were contingent and are likely to have lasting effects.
T260 44207-44350 Sentence denotes One can rerun history many times, and there will be no reason to expect that Trump's election would change the US energy policy so drastically.
T261 44351-44459 Sentence denotes There is general consensus that Trump's victory was an unexpected outcome of the 2016 presidential election.
T262 44460-44533 Sentence denotes Very few pundits predicted the victory of Trump in 2016 (Gaughan, 2016) .
T263 44534-44615 Sentence denotes Nor did political scientists expect the outcome (Blakeley, 2016; Drezner, 2016) .
T264 44616-44839 Sentence denotes The Pew Research Center admitted that Trump's success was a surprise as they failed to accurately predict the election outcome and recognized the limitations of survey as an instrument of forecasting (Mercer et al., 2016) .
T265 44840-44893 Sentence denotes Trump's energy policies will be difficult to reverse.
T266 44894-45024 Sentence denotes First, the policy shift towards domestic shale development and greater energy selfsufficiency will have a self-reinforcing effect.
T267 45025-45172 Sentence denotes The "America first" path taken serves the interests of domestic shale producers who have developed a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
T268 45173-45347 Sentence denotes The fossil fuel industry formed a powerful interest group in the US lobbying for lifting the federal-level ban on crude export (Colgan and Van De Graaf, 2017; Crooks, 2017) .
T269 45348-45580 Sentence denotes Second, the neo-mercantilist and unilateralist policies pursued by Trump's administration have already damaged the liberal international order, and a considerable amount of time and effort will be necessary to rebuild and revive it.
T270 45581-45760 Sentence denotes Similarly, there seems to be a consensus among industry experts and energy analysts that the fracking revolution in the US was unanticipated and caught everyone as a big surprise.
T271 45761-46202 Sentence denotes Just before a fracking-boosted oil boom occurred in the US in 2007, the country was preparing to build LNG import terminals whereas just 7 years after the shale revolution the US was building LNG terminals to export oil (Sernovitz, 2016) . "Even stranger," writes an oil industry expert Sernovitz (2016) , "this U.S. shale renaissance has happened in left-for-dead places like West Texas … and in places I had forgotten ever had oil and gas.
T272 46203-46271 Sentence denotes North Dakota now has double the oil production per capita of Kuwait.
T273 46272-46327 Sentence denotes Eight years ago, it produced less oil than Italy" (6) .
T274 46328-46602 Sentence denotes Wang and Krupnick (2013) argue that the key factor was technological innovation in hydraulic fracturing, drilling and geological knowledge that was made possible through US government sponsorship of R&D in developing technologies of extraction of unconventional natural gas.
T275 46603-46732 Sentence denotes Such investments seem logical in light of the energy security concerns following a series of supply disruptions during the 1970s.
T276 46733-46971 Sentence denotes The leading role in developing fracking technologies belong to small independent gas firms (e.g., Mitchell Energy, Devon Energy) that contributed large investments in the initial stages of shale gas development (Wang and Krupnick, 2013) .
T277 46972-47152 Sentence denotes In a similar vein, Wang et al. (2014) pointed out that the shale gas revolution was driven by government support for R&D and private company investment in technological innovation.
T278 47153-47377 Sentence denotes Daniel Yergin (2011) opined that, "the rapidity and sheer scale of the shale breakthroughand its effects on marketsqualified it as the most significant innovation in energy so far since the start of the 21 st century" (330).
T279 47378-47533 Sentence denotes Though the shale revolution has had a huge impact on the US economy and global energy trade, there is great deal of uncertainty about its future prospects.
T280 47534-47607 Sentence denotes Shale producers face financial pressures from investors and shareholders.
T281 47608-47847 Sentence denotes The irony is that while by increasing production and technological efficiency gains shale companies helped to bring the oil price down, the price of oil needs to be above $70 per barrel to make hydraulic drilling profitable (Morse, 2014) .
T282 47848-47979 Sentence denotes With the crude oil price in the $50-60 per barrel range after the 2014 price fall, shale companies were failing to deliver returns.
T283 47980-48087 Sentence denotes Frustrated by poor returns, investors and lenders lose an interest in shale production (Cunningham, 2019) .
T284 48088-48139 Sentence denotes Limited access to capital hurts drilling companies.
T285 48140-48288 Sentence denotes In what has been dubbed the "shale slump", cash-stripped drillers are forced to close down wells and cut back on drilling operations (Chapa, 2019) .
T286 48289-48446 Sentence denotes The oil price crash on March 9, 2020 to around $30 per barrel, if sustained, might undermine the shale oil industry leading to bankruptcies (Bordoff, 2020) .
T287 48447-48652 Sentence denotes If contingencies are inherent in a world where the forecasts of the futureespecially at the macro levelproduce dubious predictions, the multiple scenarios approach can offer one useful heuristic technique.
T288 48653-48924 Sentence denotes Unlike standard forecasting where the analyst tries to extrapolate trends into a probability distribution (Schoemaker, 1991, 551) , scenario analysis goes beyond trend extrapolation and incorporates unpredictable factors as uncertainties alongside predetermined elements.
T289 48925-49114 Sentence denotes In the late 1960s, Shell's Group Planning developed the scenario planning methodology that made the company better prepared for the 1973 oil crisis and subsequent energy market disruptions.
T290 49115-49334 Sentence denotes The scenario approach recognizes uncertainty as an essential element of reality (Wack, 1985a, 73) , and draws on exploring the interaction between the predetermined events and impossible breaks in trends (Wack, 1985b) .
T291 49335-49625 Sentence denotes In a high-complexity high-uncertainty environment inherent in a complex system, like energy system transitions and disruptions, scenario planning offers a useful framework (Schoemaker, 2004, 284) and has been applied in energy research since Shell championed this method in the 1960s-1970s.
T292 49626-49767 Sentence denotes Contemporary examples of scenario analysis include, among others, a joint International Energy Agency and OECD (2004) report "Energy to 2050:
T293 49768-49902 Sentence denotes Scenarios for a Sustainable Future" and Bazilian and collaborators' (2019) geopolitical scenarios of future transitions to renewables.
T1 49903-50103 Sentence denotes The 1973 oil crisis following OPEC's decision to cut off crude exports in October is believed to be a product of largely contingent events, and Issawi (1978) notes that it was "completely unforeseen".
T2 50104-50322 Sentence denotes However, it is not the case that the events of 1973 were completely unanticipated, but rather that a single scenario which incorporated the main elements was given greater expectation for occurring a year or two later.
T3 50323-50571 Sentence denotes In a series of scenarios published in 1971-1973, Shell referred to the possibility that power would shift from international oil companies to the oil-producing nations, and this shift could cause a surge in oil prices (Wilkinson and Kupers, 2013) .
T4 50572-50827 Sentence denotes Shell's scenario planning team also pointed out that smaller oil-producing countries in the Middle East would limit further depletion of petroleum resources for the lack of absorptive capacity to manage the inflows of oil revenues (Jefferson, 2012, 187) .
T5 50828-51142 Sentence denotes The 1979 oil crisis following the downfall of the Shah in Iran and its aftermath were elements included in Shell scenario thinking from March, 1976, and the emergence of a 'Hard Times' scenario (March 1981) anticipating economic slowdown and the drop in oil prices (Jefferson, 2012, 193; Chermack, 2017, 100-101) .
T6 51143-51421 Sentence denotes As a number of recent studies rightly pointed out, the global energy system is undergoing major changes, and the rise of the US as an energy superpower is reconfiguring the global energy order in ways that will have far-reaching implications for energy markets across the globe.
T7 51422-51651 Sentence denotes Some of the policy implications of this transformation include the following: -As energy transitions to low-carbon and renewable energy sources advance, more countries are expected to become energy selfsufficient in the long run.
T8 51652-51909 Sentence denotes The pace of a low-carbon transition will depend on a multitude of factors, and the inertia of carbon lock-in will militate against it. -The surge in shale production in the US reduced its import dependence on supplies from the Middle East and other regions.
T9 51910-52136 Sentence denotes Shale development in Northern America is thus weakening the power of traditional energy producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela. -An excess supply from the US and other new producers is likely to keep oil prices low.
T10 52137-52223 Sentence denotes Lower prices will reduce the fiscal revenue base of traditional oil and gas producers.
T11 52224-52515 Sentence denotes Elites in these countries will be pushed hard to diversify the economy or otherwise face the risk of fiscal crisis and social instability. -The US is now competing with traditional energy producers for export markets in Europe and Asia and has tightened sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.
T12 52516-52639 Sentence denotes To secure its energy export interests abroad, the US might be tempted to use coercive diplomacy against market competitors.
T13 52640-52716 Sentence denotes How well are we equipped to understand this transformation in global energy?
T14 52717-52862 Sentence denotes Focusing on some recent work on energy regime complex, I have identified several gaps in our understanding of change in the global energy system:
T15 52863-53177 Sentence denotes 1) There is a great deal of contingency in recent changes in global energy order and IPE theories should develop a more nuanced approach to understanding systemic change in the international energy order paying attention to how actors and their belief systems can have transformative impacts on important outcomes.
T16 53178-53320 Sentence denotes While contingencies are an inherent feature of social reality, the scenario approach can be a useful heuristic for dealing with uncertainties.
T17 53321-53541 Sentence denotes 2) Incremental technological advancessuch as rock fracturingcan sometimes lead to revolutionary transformations; these sorts of technological innovations are key to understanding the processes driving energy transitions.
T18 53542-53902 Sentence denotes 3) An emerging energy order appears to be less institutionalized than is commonly believed; the US withdrawal from multilateral agreements threatens the continued existence of liberal institutionalism; perhaps, we will see a greater fragmentation of the liberal order and its replacement with a multipolar one dominated by China, Russia and other major powers.
T19 53903-54251 Sentence denotes Research for this paper was funded through the LOEWE research cluster "Regions of Conflict in Eastern Europe" under the Excellence Initiative of the Hessen State Ministry of Higher Education, Research and the Arts [Hessisches Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst] at Justus Liebig University Giessen, Germany, http://www.regions-of-con flict.com.
T20 54252-54422 Sentence denotes The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.