CORD-19-Sentences  

CORD-19:013d9d1cba8a54d5d3718c229b812d7cf91b6c89 JSONTXT 8 Projects

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Id Subject Object Predicate Lexical cue
TextSentencer_T1 0-132 Sentence denotes Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study
TextSentencer_T1 0-132 Sentence denotes Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study
TextSentencer_T2 134-142 Sentence denotes Abstract
TextSentencer_T2 134-142 Sentence denotes Abstract
TextSentencer_T3 143-154 Sentence denotes Background:
TextSentencer_T3 143-154 Sentence denotes Background:
TextSentencer_T4 155-280 Sentence denotes A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human
TextSentencer_T4 155-280 Sentence denotes A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human
TextSentencer_T5 282-480 Sentence denotes In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause were reported in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and epidemiologically linked to a seafood wholesale market [1, 2] .
TextSentencer_T5 282-480 Sentence denotes In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause were reported in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and epidemiologically linked to a seafood wholesale market [1, 2] .
TextSentencer_T6 481-618 Sentence denotes It has been determined that the pathogen causing the viral pneumonia among affected individuals is a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1, 3] .
TextSentencer_T6 481-618 Sentence denotes It has been determined that the pathogen causing the viral pneumonia among affected individuals is a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1, 3] .
TextSentencer_T7 619-738 Sentence denotes The pathogen exhibits high human-to-human transmissibility and has spread rapidly within and beyond Wuhan city [4, 5] .
TextSentencer_T7 619-738 Sentence denotes The pathogen exhibits high human-to-human transmissibility and has spread rapidly within and beyond Wuhan city [4, 5] .
TextSentencer_T8 739-884 Sentence denotes On January 30 th , 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019-nCoV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern [6] .
TextSentencer_T8 739-884 Sentence denotes On January 30 th , 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019-nCoV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern [6] .
TextSentencer_T9 885-1105 Sentence denotes Wuhan is central China's transportation hub with a population of 11 million residents and a large number of higher-education students (~1.3 million in 89 universities and colleges), a particularly mobile population [7] .
TextSentencer_T9 885-1105 Sentence denotes Wuhan is central China's transportation hub with a population of 11 million residents and a large number of higher-education students (~1.3 million in 89 universities and colleges), a particularly mobile population [7] .
TextSentencer_T10 1106-1451 Sentence denotes Beyond these factors, viral spread was likely exacerbated further by the surge in domestic and international travel during the 40-day Lunar New Year (LNY) celebrations (from January 10 th , 2020 to February 18 th , 2020) -the largest annual human migration in the world, comprised of hundreds of millions of people travelling across the country.
TextSentencer_T10 1106-1451 Sentence denotes Beyond these factors, viral spread was likely exacerbated further by the surge in domestic and international travel during the 40-day Lunar New Year (LNY) celebrations (from January 10 th , 2020 to February 18 th , 2020) -the largest annual human migration in the world, comprised of hundreds of millions of people travelling across the country.
TextSentencer_T11 1452-1580 Sentence denotes As of February 4 th , 2020, China has reported 20,530 confirmed cases and 23,314 suspected cases with 2019-nCoV infections [8] .
TextSentencer_T11 1452-1580 Sentence denotes As of February 4 th , 2020, China has reported 20,530 confirmed cases and 23,314 suspected cases with 2019-nCoV infections [8] .
TextSentencer_T12 1581-1646 Sentence denotes Of the confirmed cases, 2788 are severe and 426 people have died.
TextSentencer_T12 1581-1646 Sentence denotes Of the confirmed cases, 2788 are severe and 426 people have died.
TextSentencer_T13 1647-1841 Sentence denotes Most cases were reported from Wuhan and other cities in Hubei Province, and all provinces have confirmed cases imported from Wuhan and secondary transmission has been reported in some provinces.
TextSentencer_T13 1647-1841 Sentence denotes Most cases were reported from Wuhan and other cities in Hubei Province, and all provinces have confirmed cases imported from Wuhan and secondary transmission has been reported in some provinces.
TextSentencer_T14 1842-1975 Sentence denotes Additionally, there were 153 cases reported in 23 countries outside of China, with most having a travel history involving Wuhan [6] .
TextSentencer_T14 1842-1975 Sentence denotes Additionally, there were 153 cases reported in 23 countries outside of China, with most having a travel history involving Wuhan [6] .
TextSentencer_T15 1976-2556 Sentence denotes The potential pathway from this local outbreak in Wuhan to a pandemic might involve four steps: i) local transmission in Wuhan (primary city of epidemic); ii) spread from Wuhan to other cities within and beyond China via infected travellers, causing sporadic secondary transmission in these cities (secondary city of epidemic), iii) further spreading from secondary cities with local transmission to other tertiary cities in China and international cities via returning travellers after the LNY holiday; iv) onward transmission across multiple countries and leading to a pandemic.
TextSentencer_T15 1976-2556 Sentence denotes The potential pathway from this local outbreak in Wuhan to a pandemic might involve four steps: i) local transmission in Wuhan (primary city of epidemic); ii) spread from Wuhan to other cities within and beyond China via infected travellers, causing sporadic secondary transmission in these cities (secondary city of epidemic), iii) further spreading from secondary cities with local transmission to other tertiary cities in China and international cities via returning travellers after the LNY holiday; iv) onward transmission across multiple countries and leading to a pandemic.
TextSentencer_T16 2557-2732 Sentence denotes To interrupt the spread, a cordon sanitaire of Wuhan and surrounding cities in Hubei Province has been in place since January 23 rd , 2020, just two days before the LNY's Day.
TextSentencer_T16 2557-2732 Sentence denotes To interrupt the spread, a cordon sanitaire of Wuhan and surrounding cities in Hubei Province has been in place since January 23 rd , 2020, just two days before the LNY's Day.
TextSentencer_T17 2733-2854 Sentence denotes However, significant numbers of people had likely already travelled back to their hometowns for the holiday by this time.
TextSentencer_T17 2733-2854 Sentence denotes However, significant numbers of people had likely already travelled back to their hometowns for the holiday by this time.
TextSentencer_T18 2855-2894 Sentence denotes According to Wuhan authorities, it is .
TextSentencer_T18 2855-2894 Sentence denotes According to Wuhan authorities, it is .
TextSentencer_T19 2895-3046 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T19 2895-3046 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T20 3047-3378 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint likely that more than five million residents had already left the city before the lockdown, but where they went and how high the risk of spreading the virus remains an open question [9] .
TextSentencer_T20 3047-3378 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint likely that more than five million residents had already left the city before the lockdown, but where they went and how high the risk of spreading the virus remains an open question [9] .
TextSentencer_T21 3379-3641 Sentence denotes Here we conducted a travel network-based analysis to explore patterns of domestic and international population movements from high-risk cities in China, and provide preliminary estimates of the potential risk of 2019-nCoV spreading across and beyond the country.
TextSentencer_T21 3379-3641 Sentence denotes Here we conducted a travel network-based analysis to explore patterns of domestic and international population movements from high-risk cities in China, and provide preliminary estimates of the potential risk of 2019-nCoV spreading across and beyond the country.
TextSentencer_T22 3642-3846 Sentence denotes Given the current epidemic and limited understanding of the epidemiology of this disease, our findings on travel patterns from historical data can help contribute to tailoring public health interventions.
TextSentencer_T22 3642-3846 Sentence denotes Given the current epidemic and limited understanding of the epidemiology of this disease, our findings on travel patterns from historical data can help contribute to tailoring public health interventions.
TextSentencer_T23 3847-4096 Sentence denotes To identify the areas that are most vulnerable to virus importation, we performed and integrated a series of analyses, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone-based population movement data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports.
TextSentencer_T23 3847-4096 Sentence denotes To identify the areas that are most vulnerable to virus importation, we performed and integrated a series of analyses, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone-based population movement data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports.
TextSentencer_T24 4097-4197 Sentence denotes We defined the potential risk and geographic range of 2019-nCoV virus spread across three scenarios:
TextSentencer_T24 4097-4197 Sentence denotes We defined the potential risk and geographic range of 2019-nCoV virus spread across three scenarios:
TextSentencer_T25 4198-4502 Sentence denotes 1) from the primary city (Wuhan) into other cities in mainland China (31 provincial regions), 2) from high-risk secondary cities into other cities across China, and 3) from high-risk cities in mainland China into cities in other countries or regions during the LNY holiday and the following three months.
TextSentencer_T25 4198-4502 Sentence denotes 1) from the primary city (Wuhan) into other cities in mainland China (31 provincial regions), 2) from high-risk secondary cities into other cities across China, and 3) from high-risk cities in mainland China into cities in other countries or regions during the LNY holiday and the following three months.
TextSentencer_T26 4503-4692 Sentence denotes We also estimated the number of airline travellers likely needing to be quarantined or screened to capture travellers potentially exposed to 2019-nCoV in high-risk cities of mainland China.
TextSentencer_T26 4503-4692 Sentence denotes We also estimated the number of airline travellers likely needing to be quarantined or screened to capture travellers potentially exposed to 2019-nCoV in high-risk cities of mainland China.
TextSentencer_T27 4693-4993 Sentence denotes To define daily patterns and the connectivity of population movements at county and prefecture (city) level across mainland China during the LNY holiday and the following three months, we used the aggregated and de-identified daily flow of the users of Baidu, the largest Chinese search engine [10] .
TextSentencer_T27 4693-4993 Sentence denotes To define daily patterns and the connectivity of population movements at county and prefecture (city) level across mainland China during the LNY holiday and the following three months, we used the aggregated and de-identified daily flow of the users of Baidu, the largest Chinese search engine [10] .
TextSentencer_T28 4994-5226 Sentence denotes Baidu offers location-based service (LBS), based on the global positioning system (GPS), IP address, location of signalling towers and WIFI, for online searching, mapping, and a large variety of apps and software for mobile devices.
TextSentencer_T28 4994-5226 Sentence denotes Baidu offers location-based service (LBS), based on the global positioning system (GPS), IP address, location of signalling towers and WIFI, for online searching, mapping, and a large variety of apps and software for mobile devices.
TextSentencer_T29 5227-5317 Sentence denotes These data have been used to visualize population migration around Chinese New Year [10] .
TextSentencer_T29 5227-5317 Sentence denotes These data have been used to visualize population migration around Chinese New Year [10] .
TextSentencer_T30 5318-5361 Sentence denotes Two Baidu datasets were used in this study.
TextSentencer_T30 5318-5361 Sentence denotes Two Baidu datasets were used in this study.
TextSentencer_T31 5362-5497 Sentence denotes The first one covers daily movement data at county level from December 1 st , 2013 to April 30 th , 2014, as described elsewhere [11] .
TextSentencer_T31 5362-5497 Sentence denotes The first one covers daily movement data at county level from December 1 st , 2013 to April 30 th , 2014, as described elsewhere [11] .
TextSentencer_T32 5498-5522 Sentence denotes We calculated relative .
TextSentencer_T32 5498-5522 Sentence denotes We calculated relative .
TextSentencer_T33 5523-5674 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T33 5523-5674 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T34 5675-5999 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint netflow following the equation below to extract daily patterns during LNY holiday at county level, with the population in 2014 obtained from the Chinese Bureau of Statistics [12] .
TextSentencer_T34 5675-5999 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint netflow following the equation below to extract daily patterns during LNY holiday at county level, with the population in 2014 obtained from the Chinese Bureau of Statistics [12] .
TextSentencer_T35 6000-6064 Sentence denotes Relative netflow = (inflow -outflow) / population of each county
TextSentencer_T35 6000-6064 Sentence denotes Relative netflow = (inflow -outflow) / population of each county
TextSentencer_T36 6065-6226 Sentence denotes The second dataset is a more recent daily movement matrix at the city level based on data from Baidu's search app from January 1 st , 2015 to April 30 th , 2015.
TextSentencer_T36 6065-6226 Sentence denotes The second dataset is a more recent daily movement matrix at the city level based on data from Baidu's search app from January 1 st , 2015 to April 30 th , 2015.
TextSentencer_T37 6227-6426 Sentence denotes The last recorded locations of a user (or device) for each day were compared, and if the location changed, then we counted the user (or device) as someone who had moved from one city to another city.
TextSentencer_T37 6227-6426 Sentence denotes The last recorded locations of a user (or device) for each day were compared, and if the location changed, then we counted the user (or device) as someone who had moved from one city to another city.
TextSentencer_T38 6427-6715 Sentence denotes To understand the spread risk of 2019-nCoV from Wuhan into other cities via domestic population movement, we aggregated daily outflows of people from Wuhan to other cities across mainland China for the two weeks (the quarantine period of the virus) prior to the cordon sanitaire of Wuhan.
TextSentencer_T38 6427-6715 Sentence denotes To understand the spread risk of 2019-nCoV from Wuhan into other cities via domestic population movement, we aggregated daily outflows of people from Wuhan to other cities across mainland China for the two weeks (the quarantine period of the virus) prior to the cordon sanitaire of Wuhan.
TextSentencer_T39 6716-6934 Sentence denotes As the travel ban took place on January 23 rd , 2020, just 2 days before LNY's day, and given that LNY's day in 2015 was February 19 th , we took February 17 th , 2015 as a reference of the lockdown day in our dataset.
TextSentencer_T39 6716-6934 Sentence denotes As the travel ban took place on January 23 rd , 2020, just 2 days before LNY's day, and given that LNY's day in 2015 was February 19 th , we took February 17 th , 2015 as a reference of the lockdown day in our dataset.
TextSentencer_T40 6935-7220 Sentence denotes Using the second dataset, then the risk of importation for each destination city or province was preliminarily defined as the percentage of travellers received by each city or province out of the total volume of travellers leaving Wuhan during the two weeks before the city's lockdown.
TextSentencer_T40 6935-7220 Sentence denotes Using the second dataset, then the risk of importation for each destination city or province was preliminarily defined as the percentage of travellers received by each city or province out of the total volume of travellers leaving Wuhan during the two weeks before the city's lockdown.
TextSentencer_T41 7221-7507 Sentence denotes These secondary cities may have a high risk of community-level transmission through the introduction of infected travellers from Wuhan, and then spread the virus to other tertiary cities by returning population movements after the LNY holiday, causing an even wider spread of the virus.
TextSentencer_T41 7221-7507 Sentence denotes These secondary cities may have a high risk of community-level transmission through the introduction of infected travellers from Wuhan, and then spread the virus to other tertiary cities by returning population movements after the LNY holiday, causing an even wider spread of the virus.
TextSentencer_T42 7508-7809 Sentence denotes As most of the cities in Hubei province have implemented the same travel controls as Wuhan before LNY, we defined the high-risk secondary cities outside of Hubei province as the cities within top 30 ranked cities (Supplementary Table S1 ) with the highest risk of importation from Wuhan defined above.
TextSentencer_T42 7508-7809 Sentence denotes As most of the cities in Hubei province have implemented the same travel controls as Wuhan before LNY, we defined the high-risk secondary cities outside of Hubei province as the cities within top 30 ranked cities (Supplementary Table S1 ) with the highest risk of importation from Wuhan defined above.
TextSentencer_T43 7810-8168 Sentence denotes Based on the 2015 Baidu dataset on population movement, the risk of spreading the virus from high-risk secondary cities to tertiary cities was preliminarily calculated as the averaged percentage of travellers received by each tertiary city out of the total volume of travellers leaving each high-risk secondary city during the four weeks following LNY's Day.
TextSentencer_T43 7810-8168 Sentence denotes Based on the 2015 Baidu dataset on population movement, the risk of spreading the virus from high-risk secondary cities to tertiary cities was preliminarily calculated as the averaged percentage of travellers received by each tertiary city out of the total volume of travellers leaving each high-risk secondary city during the four weeks following LNY's Day.
TextSentencer_T44 8169-8294 Sentence denotes We chose a period of four weeks because the returning flow of LNY's population movement, Chunyun, generally lasts four weeks.
TextSentencer_T44 8169-8294 Sentence denotes We chose a period of four weeks because the returning flow of LNY's population movement, Chunyun, generally lasts four weeks.
TextSentencer_T45 8295-8296 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T45 8295-8296 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T46 8297-8448 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T46 8297-8448 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T47 8449-8592 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint
TextSentencer_T47 8449-8592 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint
TextSentencer_T48 8593-8845 Sentence denotes To define the connectivity and risk of 2019n-CoV spreading from Wuhan and high-risk secondary cities defined above, into the cities beyond mainland China, we obtained aggregated itinerary data from the International Air Travel Association (IATA) [13] .
TextSentencer_T48 8593-8845 Sentence denotes To define the connectivity and risk of 2019n-CoV spreading from Wuhan and high-risk secondary cities defined above, into the cities beyond mainland China, we obtained aggregated itinerary data from the International Air Travel Association (IATA) [13] .
TextSentencer_T49 8846-9106 Sentence denotes IATA data accounts for approximately 90% of passenger travel itineraries on commercial flights, and these data represent direct origin (Wuhan) to destination trips, and indirect trips that originated in Wuhan, but had connecting flights to a final destination.
TextSentencer_T49 8846-9106 Sentence denotes IATA data accounts for approximately 90% of passenger travel itineraries on commercial flights, and these data represent direct origin (Wuhan) to destination trips, and indirect trips that originated in Wuhan, but had connecting flights to a final destination.
TextSentencer_T50 9107-9260 Sentence denotes We quantified monthly volumes of airline travellers departing Wuhan and high-risk secondary cities from February 1 st , 2018, through April 30 th , 2018.
TextSentencer_T50 9107-9260 Sentence denotes We quantified monthly volumes of airline travellers departing Wuhan and high-risk secondary cities from February 1 st , 2018, through April 30 th , 2018.
TextSentencer_T51 9261-9647 Sentence denotes With the assumption that the population movements around the LNY holiday in 2020 was consistent with the pattern in 2018, all final destinations were ranked by volumes of airline travellers, and the relative risk of importation was defined as the percentage of airline travellers received by each destination city out of the total volume of travellers leaving high-risk cities in China.
TextSentencer_T51 9261-9647 Sentence denotes With the assumption that the population movements around the LNY holiday in 2020 was consistent with the pattern in 2018, all final destinations were ranked by volumes of airline travellers, and the relative risk of importation was defined as the percentage of airline travellers received by each destination city out of the total volume of travellers leaving high-risk cities in China.
TextSentencer_T52 9648-9808 Sentence denotes We also estimated the number of airline travellers that may have needed to be kept in quarantine from Wuhan during the two weeks prior to the city's travel ban.
TextSentencer_T52 9648-9808 Sentence denotes We also estimated the number of airline travellers that may have needed to be kept in quarantine from Wuhan during the two weeks prior to the city's travel ban.
TextSentencer_T53 9809-9963 Sentence denotes The LNY's day in 2018 was on February 16 and the lockdown of Wuhan happened two days before LNY's day, corresponding to the date of February 14 th , 2018.
TextSentencer_T53 9809-9963 Sentence denotes The LNY's day in 2018 was on February 16 and the lockdown of Wuhan happened two days before LNY's day, corresponding to the date of February 14 th , 2018.
TextSentencer_T54 9964-10192 Sentence denotes We therefore defined the number of travellers needing to be quarantined as half of the volume of airline travellers from Wuhan in February, 2018, representing the 2-week total number of travellers for the first half of February.
TextSentencer_T54 9964-10192 Sentence denotes We therefore defined the number of travellers needing to be quarantined as half of the volume of airline travellers from Wuhan in February, 2018, representing the 2-week total number of travellers for the first half of February.
TextSentencer_T55 10193-10535 Sentence denotes We then estimated the number of infections and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) in these airline travellers from Wuhan, based on a binomial distribution and the proportion of 2019-nCoV infections in the citizens evacuated from Wuhan reported by Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Germany, as of January 31 st , 2020 [6, [14] [15] [16] [17] .
TextSentencer_T55 10193-10535 Sentence denotes We then estimated the number of infections and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) in these airline travellers from Wuhan, based on a binomial distribution and the proportion of 2019-nCoV infections in the citizens evacuated from Wuhan reported by Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Germany, as of January 31 st , 2020 [6, [14] [15] [16] [17] .
TextSentencer_T56 10536-10813 Sentence denotes Additionally, to capture travellers potentially exposed to virus, we also estimated the volume of airline travellers that would be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April.
TextSentencer_T56 10536-10813 Sentence denotes Additionally, to capture travellers potentially exposed to virus, we also estimated the volume of airline travellers that would be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April.
TextSentencer_T57 10814-11121 Sentence denotes Considering air traffic flows from China have changed due to the airline flight cancellations, travel restrictions imposed by countries or regions, or changes in travel behaviours, we calculated the volume of travellers using different scenarios of reductions (50%, 75%, and 90%) in total passenger volumes.
TextSentencer_T57 10814-11121 Sentence denotes Considering air traffic flows from China have changed due to the airline flight cancellations, travel restrictions imposed by countries or regions, or changes in travel behaviours, we calculated the volume of travellers using different scenarios of reductions (50%, 75%, and 90%) in total passenger volumes.
TextSentencer_T58 11122-11123 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T58 11122-11123 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T59 11124-11275 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T59 11124-11275 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T60 11276-11419 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint
TextSentencer_T60 11276-11419 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint
TextSentencer_T61 11420-11869 Sentence denotes As we used historial data to predict travel patterns in 2020, to ensure that the seasonal patterns observed over LNY and holidays more generally are consistent over multiple years and countries, we collated country-level domestic and international passenger statistics for air travel from 2010 to 2018, and compared these against a comprehensive time series of public and school holidays across the world during the same period (Supplementary Note).
TextSentencer_T61 11420-11869 Sentence denotes As we used historial data to predict travel patterns in 2020, to ensure that the seasonal patterns observed over LNY and holidays more generally are consistent over multiple years and countries, we collated country-level domestic and international passenger statistics for air travel from 2010 to 2018, and compared these against a comprehensive time series of public and school holidays across the world during the same period (Supplementary Note).
TextSentencer_T62 11870-12202 Sentence denotes Additionally, we also compared the spatial patterns of the risks of Chinese cities importing the virus from Wuhan, estimated by the population movement data in 2014 and 2015, and more recent data on the top 50 ranked origin and destination cities in January 2020, available from the Baidu Migration site (https://qianxi.baidu.com/).
TextSentencer_T62 11870-12202 Sentence denotes Additionally, we also compared the spatial patterns of the risks of Chinese cities importing the virus from Wuhan, estimated by the population movement data in 2014 and 2015, and more recent data on the top 50 ranked origin and destination cities in January 2020, available from the Baidu Migration site (https://qianxi.baidu.com/).
TextSentencer_T63 12203-12522 Sentence denotes To futher validate our results, we also compared the importation risk estimated in this study with the number of reported imported cases from Wuhan to other provinces in mainland China, as of January 25 th , 2020, and the number of imported cases reported by other countries or regions, as of February 3 rd , 2020 [6] .
TextSentencer_T63 12203-12522 Sentence denotes To futher validate our results, we also compared the importation risk estimated in this study with the number of reported imported cases from Wuhan to other provinces in mainland China, as of January 25 th , 2020, and the number of imported cases reported by other countries or regions, as of February 3 rd , 2020 [6] .
TextSentencer_T64 12523-12701 Sentence denotes The distribution between days of travelling from Wuhan, illness onset, first medical visit, and hospitalization of imported cases, as of January 25 th , 2020, were also analysed.
TextSentencer_T64 12523-12701 Sentence denotes The distribution between days of travelling from Wuhan, illness onset, first medical visit, and hospitalization of imported cases, as of January 25 th , 2020, were also analysed.
TextSentencer_T65 12702-12857 Sentence denotes These case data were collated from the websites of WHO, national and local health authorities or new agencies within and beyond China (Supplementary Note).
TextSentencer_T65 12702-12857 Sentence denotes These case data were collated from the websites of WHO, national and local health authorities or new agencies within and beyond China (Supplementary Note).
TextSentencer_T66 12858-12966 Sentence denotes R version 3.6.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) was used to perform data analyses.
TextSentencer_T66 12858-12966 Sentence denotes R version 3.6.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) was used to perform data analyses.
TextSentencer_T67 12967-13054 Sentence denotes Significant migratory flows occurred in opposite directions before and after LNY's Day.
TextSentencer_T67 12967-13054 Sentence denotes Significant migratory flows occurred in opposite directions before and after LNY's Day.
TextSentencer_T68 13055-13330 Sentence denotes In Wuhan City, mass movements of people began about three weeks prior to LNY, with the first peak of population leaving the city before the start of the winter holiday for universities, especially in the three counties that contain many universities and students (Figure 1 ).
TextSentencer_T68 13055-13330 Sentence denotes In Wuhan City, mass movements of people began about three weeks prior to LNY, with the first peak of population leaving the city before the start of the winter holiday for universities, especially in the three counties that contain many universities and students (Figure 1 ).
TextSentencer_T69 13331-13630 Sentence denotes Although a cordon sanitaire of Wuhan and some cities in Hubei Province has been in place since January 23 rd , 2020, the timing of this may have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving Wuhan, as another peak of movements out of the city was seen 2 days before LNY's day.
TextSentencer_T69 13331-13630 Sentence denotes Although a cordon sanitaire of Wuhan and some cities in Hubei Province has been in place since January 23 rd , 2020, the timing of this may have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving Wuhan, as another peak of movements out of the city was seen 2 days before LNY's day.
TextSentencer_T70 13631-13773 Sentence denotes We found that a large number of travellers were likely departing Wuhan into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China before Wuhan's .
TextSentencer_T70 13631-13773 Sentence denotes We found that a large number of travellers were likely departing Wuhan into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China before Wuhan's .
TextSentencer_T71 13774-13925 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T71 13774-13925 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T72 13926-14105 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint lockdown (Supplementary Tables S1).
TextSentencer_T72 13926-14105 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint lockdown (Supplementary Tables S1).
TextSentencer_T73 14106-14345 Sentence denotes Other cities in Hubei Province received huge amounts of people during the two weeks before LNY and showed a decreasing population since LNY, following a peak of outflow at the end of the LNY holiday (Figure 1b and Supplementary Table S2 ).
TextSentencer_T73 14106-14345 Sentence denotes Other cities in Hubei Province received huge amounts of people during the two weeks before LNY and showed a decreasing population since LNY, following a peak of outflow at the end of the LNY holiday (Figure 1b and Supplementary Table S2 ).
TextSentencer_T74 14346-14567 Sentence denotes If Wuhan's lockdown had not have been undertaken, our analyses suggest the main destination cities of population outflow since LNY would have been similar to the situation two weeks prior to LNY (Supplementary Table S3 ).
TextSentencer_T74 14346-14567 Sentence denotes If Wuhan's lockdown had not have been undertaken, our analyses suggest the main destination cities of population outflow since LNY would have been similar to the situation two weeks prior to LNY (Supplementary Table S3 ).
TextSentencer_T75 14568-14770 Sentence denotes In terms of the initial importation risk of virus for each city during the two weeks before Wuhan's lockdown, nearly all other cities in Hubei Province were estimated to be high-risk areas (Figure 2a ).
TextSentencer_T75 14568-14770 Sentence denotes In terms of the initial importation risk of virus for each city during the two weeks before Wuhan's lockdown, nearly all other cities in Hubei Province were estimated to be high-risk areas (Figure 2a ).
TextSentencer_T76 14771-14857 Sentence denotes Other places with high risks were Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other large cities.
TextSentencer_T76 14771-14857 Sentence denotes Other places with high risks were Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other large cities.
TextSentencer_T77 14858-14980 Sentence denotes In terms of the provincial level, the risks were high in Guangdong and Hunan, followed by Henan and Zhejiang (Figure 2b ).
TextSentencer_T77 14858-14980 Sentence denotes In terms of the provincial level, the risks were high in Guangdong and Hunan, followed by Henan and Zhejiang (Figure 2b ).
TextSentencer_T78 14981-15207 Sentence denotes There was a significant correlation (r-squared = 0.59, p < 0.001) between the number of imported cases and the risk of importation estimated from traveller numbers from Wuhan within the two weeks before LNY's Day (Figure 3a ).
TextSentencer_T78 14981-15207 Sentence denotes There was a significant correlation (r-squared = 0.59, p < 0.001) between the number of imported cases and the risk of importation estimated from traveller numbers from Wuhan within the two weeks before LNY's Day (Figure 3a ).
TextSentencer_T79 15208-15409 Sentence denotes Further, a high proportion of cases travelled with symptoms at the early stage of the outbreak, and the lag from illness onset to hospitalization decreased from a median of 6 days (Interquartile range:
TextSentencer_T79 15208-15409 Sentence denotes Further, a high proportion of cases travelled with symptoms at the early stage of the outbreak, and the lag from illness onset to hospitalization decreased from a median of 6 days (Interquartile range:
TextSentencer_T80 15410-15507 Sentence denotes 4-7 days) in the first half of January 2020 to 3 days (1-5 days) in the second half ( Figure 4 ).
TextSentencer_T80 15410-15507 Sentence denotes 4-7 days) in the first half of January 2020 to 3 days (1-5 days) in the second half ( Figure 4 ).
TextSentencer_T81 15508-15640 Sentence denotes According to our definition outlined in the methods, the 17 high-risk secondary cities outside of Hubei Province were identified as:
TextSentencer_T81 15508-15640 Sentence denotes According to our definition outlined in the methods, the 17 high-risk secondary cities outside of Hubei Province were identified as:
TextSentencer_T82 15641-15817 Sentence denotes Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Changsha, Xi'an, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanchang, Chengdu, Hefei, Fuzhou, and Dongguan ( Figure 5) .
TextSentencer_T82 15641-15817 Sentence denotes Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Changsha, Xi'an, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanchang, Chengdu, Hefei, Fuzhou, and Dongguan ( Figure 5) .
TextSentencer_T83 15818-16039 Sentence denotes Should community-level outbreaks occur in these cities, they could contribute to further spread of infection to other highly connected cities within China via movement after the holiday (Supplementary Figures S1 and S2 ).
TextSentencer_T83 15818-16039 Sentence denotes Should community-level outbreaks occur in these cities, they could contribute to further spread of infection to other highly connected cities within China via movement after the holiday (Supplementary Figures S1 and S2 ).
TextSentencer_T84 16040-16297 Sentence denotes Based on historical air travel data, the connectivity and spread risk between high-risk cities in mainland China and cities in other countries or regions was defined for the three months around the LNY holiday (Supplementary Figure S3 and Tables S4 and S5).
TextSentencer_T84 16040-16297 Sentence denotes Based on historical air travel data, the connectivity and spread risk between high-risk cities in mainland China and cities in other countries or regions was defined for the three months around the LNY holiday (Supplementary Figure S3 and Tables S4 and S5).
TextSentencer_T85 16298-16393 Sentence denotes Bangkok, Hong Kong, and Taipei ranked in the top three, followed by Seoul, Tokyo and Singapore.
TextSentencer_T85 16298-16393 Sentence denotes Bangkok, Hong Kong, and Taipei ranked in the top three, followed by Seoul, Tokyo and Singapore.
TextSentencer_T86 16394-16518 Sentence denotes The main destinations were presented by region in the supplemental materials (Supplementary Figures S3-S9 and Table S4 -S7).
TextSentencer_T86 16394-16518 Sentence denotes The main destinations were presented by region in the supplemental materials (Supplementary Figures S3-S9 and Table S4 -S7).
TextSentencer_T87 16519-16611 Sentence denotes During the two weeks before Wuhan's lockdown, there were an estimated total 59,912 airline .
TextSentencer_T87 16519-16611 Sentence denotes During the two weeks before Wuhan's lockdown, there were an estimated total 59,912 airline .
TextSentencer_T88 16612-16763 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T88 16612-16763 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T89 16764-17052 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint travellers from Wuhan that may have needed to be kept in quarantine at the 382 destinations outside of mainland China (Supplementary Table S8) .
TextSentencer_T89 16764-17052 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint travellers from Wuhan that may have needed to be kept in quarantine at the 382 destinations outside of mainland China (Supplementary Table S8) .
TextSentencer_T90 17053-17153 Sentence denotes Thailand, Japan, and Taiwan ranked in the top three, followed by Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
TextSentencer_T90 17053-17153 Sentence denotes Thailand, Japan, and Taiwan ranked in the top three, followed by Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
TextSentencer_T91 17154-17215 Sentence denotes Based on an overall infection rate of 1.39% (16/1149; 95% UI:
TextSentencer_T91 17154-17215 Sentence denotes Based on an overall infection rate of 1.39% (16/1149; 95% UI:
TextSentencer_T92 17216-17281 Sentence denotes 0.80% -2.25%) in citizens evacuated from Wuhan before Table S8 ).
TextSentencer_T92 17216-17281 Sentence denotes 0.80% -2.25%) in citizens evacuated from Wuhan before Table S8 ).
TextSentencer_T93 17282-17528 Sentence denotes As of February 3 rd , 2020, a significant correlation (r-squared = 0.58, p < 0.001) was seen between the number of imported cases reported in those countries or regions and the risk of importation via travellers defined in our study (Figure 3b ).
TextSentencer_T93 17282-17528 Sentence denotes As of February 3 rd , 2020, a significant correlation (r-squared = 0.58, p < 0.001) was seen between the number of imported cases reported in those countries or regions and the risk of importation via travellers defined in our study (Figure 3b ).
TextSentencer_T94 17529-18101 Sentence denotes Because significant intranational and international spread from Wuhan has already occurred, a very large number of airline travellers (6.5 million under the scenario of 50% travel reduction as usual, 3.3 million under 75% reduction, and 1.3 million under 90% reduction, respectively) would be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China ( Figure 5 ) and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 (Table 1 and Supplementary Tables S9 and S10) , to ensure that all travellers from high risk cities were covered.
TextSentencer_T94 17529-18101 Sentence denotes Because significant intranational and international spread from Wuhan has already occurred, a very large number of airline travellers (6.5 million under the scenario of 50% travel reduction as usual, 3.3 million under 75% reduction, and 1.3 million under 90% reduction, respectively) would be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China ( Figure 5 ) and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 (Table 1 and Supplementary Tables S9 and S10) , to ensure that all travellers from high risk cities were covered.
TextSentencer_T95 18102-18501 Sentence denotes Addtionally, based on monthly air passenger travel statistics and time series of public and school holidays in 91 countries from 2010 to 2018 (Supplementary Note), we found the seasonal pattens of domestic and international population movements across years were highly consistent with the timing and duration of public and school holidays in different countries (Supplementary Figure S10 and S11) .
TextSentencer_T95 18102-18501 Sentence denotes Addtionally, based on monthly air passenger travel statistics and time series of public and school holidays in 91 countries from 2010 to 2018 (Supplementary Note), we found the seasonal pattens of domestic and international population movements across years were highly consistent with the timing and duration of public and school holidays in different countries (Supplementary Figure S10 and S11) .
TextSentencer_T96 18502-18890 Sentence denotes Moreover, we also found similar spatial patterns in the risks of Chinese cities importing the virus from Wuhan via population movements estimated by both the Baidu data in 2014 and 2015, and the more recent data covering the top 50 ranked destinations in 2020, (Figure 1a and Supplementary Figure S12) , highlighting the value of using historical data to rapidly assess present day risks.
TextSentencer_T96 18502-18890 Sentence denotes Moreover, we also found similar spatial patterns in the risks of Chinese cities importing the virus from Wuhan via population movements estimated by both the Baidu data in 2014 and 2015, and the more recent data covering the top 50 ranked destinations in 2020, (Figure 1a and Supplementary Figure S12) , highlighting the value of using historical data to rapidly assess present day risks.
TextSentencer_T97 18891-18954 Sentence denotes Mobile phone-based population movement data and air passenger .
TextSentencer_T97 18891-18954 Sentence denotes Mobile phone-based population movement data and air passenger .
TextSentencer_T98 18955-19106 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T98 18955-19106 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T99 19107-19427 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint itinerary data have been widely used to quantify the connectivity and transmission risk of pathogens via domestic and international human travel [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] .
TextSentencer_T99 19107-19427 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint itinerary data have been widely used to quantify the connectivity and transmission risk of pathogens via domestic and international human travel [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] .
TextSentencer_T100 19428-19816 Sentence denotes Given the rapidly growing number of confirmed 2019-nCoV infections, increasing evidence of human-to-human transmission within and beyond China [4, 24] , and our limited understanding of this novel virus [25, 26] , the findings here from travel patterns in historical data and spread risk estimation can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design across the world [27] .
TextSentencer_T100 19428-19816 Sentence denotes Given the rapidly growing number of confirmed 2019-nCoV infections, increasing evidence of human-to-human transmission within and beyond China [4, 24] , and our limited understanding of this novel virus [25, 26] , the findings here from travel patterns in historical data and spread risk estimation can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design across the world [27] .
TextSentencer_T101 19817-20095 Sentence denotes In terms of domestic connectivity and risk, the high population outflows from three counties in Wuhan with many colleges and universities in the first two weeks of January were likely college students leaving the city to avoid the peak traffic just one week before the New Year.
TextSentencer_T101 19817-20095 Sentence denotes In terms of domestic connectivity and risk, the high population outflows from three counties in Wuhan with many colleges and universities in the first two weeks of January were likely college students leaving the city to avoid the peak traffic just one week before the New Year.
TextSentencer_T102 20096-20283 Sentence denotes Because of the early timing of this movement, many students might have avoided the period when the virus spread rapidly in Wuhan, and their risk of spreading the virus may be low as well.
TextSentencer_T102 20096-20283 Sentence denotes Because of the early timing of this movement, many students might have avoided the period when the virus spread rapidly in Wuhan, and their risk of spreading the virus may be low as well.
TextSentencer_T103 20284-20622 Sentence denotes However, our results suggest that during the two weeks prior to Wuhan's travel ban, a large number of travellers still departed Wuhan into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China and may have spread the virus to new areas, as the timing of the lockdown occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving Wuhan.
TextSentencer_T103 20284-20622 Sentence denotes However, our results suggest that during the two weeks prior to Wuhan's travel ban, a large number of travellers still departed Wuhan into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China and may have spread the virus to new areas, as the timing of the lockdown occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving Wuhan.
TextSentencer_T104 20623-20934 Sentence denotes Further exacerbating this risk, we found that during the outbreak's initial stages, a particularly high proportion of cases travelled with illness caused by the virus, together with the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV through asymptomatic contacts, potentially causing additional transmission during travel [28] .
TextSentencer_T104 20623-20934 Sentence denotes Further exacerbating this risk, we found that during the outbreak's initial stages, a particularly high proportion of cases travelled with illness caused by the virus, together with the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV through asymptomatic contacts, potentially causing additional transmission during travel [28] .
TextSentencer_T105 20935-21139 Sentence denotes Moreover, several destination cities ( Figure 5 ) outside of Hubei Province that received high volume of travellers from Wuhan prior to LNY's day may serve as significant secondary cities in the outbreak.
TextSentencer_T105 20935-21139 Sentence denotes Moreover, several destination cities ( Figure 5 ) outside of Hubei Province that received high volume of travellers from Wuhan prior to LNY's day may serve as significant secondary cities in the outbreak.
TextSentencer_T106 21140-21272 Sentence denotes Most of these cities have large populations and international airports, highly connected with other regions within and beyond China.
TextSentencer_T106 21140-21272 Sentence denotes Most of these cities have large populations and international airports, highly connected with other regions within and beyond China.
TextSentencer_T107 21273-21483 Sentence denotes The initial imported seed cases likely caused the local community transmission, and further spread the virus into wider geographical ranges following the population flows occurring due to the LNY holiday [19] .
TextSentencer_T107 21273-21483 Sentence denotes The initial imported seed cases likely caused the local community transmission, and further spread the virus into wider geographical ranges following the population flows occurring due to the LNY holiday [19] .
TextSentencer_T108 21484-21890 Sentence denotes Therefore, substantial public health interventions have been immediately applied across the country since LNY, including the cordon sanitaire in several of the most affected cities, cancellation of mass gatherings, reduction of travel and contact rate, as well as the extension of the LNY and school winter holiday, which might mitigate subsequent local establishment of 2019-nCoV introduced by travellers.
TextSentencer_T108 21484-21890 Sentence denotes Therefore, substantial public health interventions have been immediately applied across the country since LNY, including the cordon sanitaire in several of the most affected cities, cancellation of mass gatherings, reduction of travel and contact rate, as well as the extension of the LNY and school winter holiday, which might mitigate subsequent local establishment of 2019-nCoV introduced by travellers.
TextSentencer_T109 21891-22043 Sentence denotes Beyond the cases that have occurred in China, air passengers have spread 2019-nCoV across countries and continents within a short time period [28, 29] .
TextSentencer_T109 21891-22043 Sentence denotes Beyond the cases that have occurred in China, air passengers have spread 2019-nCoV across countries and continents within a short time period [28, 29] .
TextSentencer_T110 22044-22115 Sentence denotes In particular, a high volume of international airline travellers left .
TextSentencer_T110 22044-22115 Sentence denotes In particular, a high volume of international airline travellers left .
TextSentencer_T111 22116-22267 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T111 22116-22267 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T112 22268-22547 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint Wuhan for hundreds of destination cities across the world during the two weeks prior to the travel restriction implemented in the city.
TextSentencer_T112 22268-22547 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint Wuhan for hundreds of destination cities across the world during the two weeks prior to the travel restriction implemented in the city.
TextSentencer_T113 22548-22771 Sentence denotes Substantial preparedness efforts at destination cities should be taken to prevent further international seeding and transmission, otherwise the local establishment of epidemics, and even a pandemic, might become inevitable.
TextSentencer_T113 22548-22771 Sentence denotes Substantial preparedness efforts at destination cities should be taken to prevent further international seeding and transmission, otherwise the local establishment of epidemics, and even a pandemic, might become inevitable.
TextSentencer_T114 22772-22987 Sentence denotes For example, exit and entry screening may be futher extended to capture travellers with fever who have potentially been exposed to the virus in high-risk Chinese cities where local transmission has been established.
TextSentencer_T114 22772-22987 Sentence denotes For example, exit and entry screening may be futher extended to capture travellers with fever who have potentially been exposed to the virus in high-risk Chinese cities where local transmission has been established.
TextSentencer_T115 22988-23227 Sentence denotes However, we estimated that a huge volume of airline travellers would be required to be screened in February to April, even under the scenario of significant reduction (90%) in air passengers compared with the same period of previous years.
TextSentencer_T115 22988-23227 Sentence denotes However, we estimated that a huge volume of airline travellers would be required to be screened in February to April, even under the scenario of significant reduction (90%) in air passengers compared with the same period of previous years.
TextSentencer_T116 23228-23385 Sentence denotes Therefore, ensuring that surveillance and health systems around the world are ready and sufficiently strong to detect and deal with cases seen is a priority.
TextSentencer_T116 23228-23385 Sentence denotes Therefore, ensuring that surveillance and health systems around the world are ready and sufficiently strong to detect and deal with cases seen is a priority.
TextSentencer_T117 23386-23513 Sentence denotes It is expected that further international exportation of cases from China will occur and cases may appear in any country [30] .
TextSentencer_T117 23386-23513 Sentence denotes It is expected that further international exportation of cases from China will occur and cases may appear in any country [30] .
TextSentencer_T118 23514-23733 Sentence denotes Thus, all countries should be prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of the 2019-nCoV infection [6, 31] .
TextSentencer_T118 23514-23733 Sentence denotes Thus, all countries should be prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of the 2019-nCoV infection [6, 31] .
TextSentencer_T119 23734-24089 Sentence denotes Of additional concern is that the anticipated destinations of hundreds of thousands of travellers departing China are to low-income or lower-middle income countries, where inadequately resourced medical and public health systems might be unable to detect and adequately manage an imported case of 2019n-CoV, including possible subsequent community spread.
TextSentencer_T119 23734-24089 Sentence denotes Of additional concern is that the anticipated destinations of hundreds of thousands of travellers departing China are to low-income or lower-middle income countries, where inadequately resourced medical and public health systems might be unable to detect and adequately manage an imported case of 2019n-CoV, including possible subsequent community spread.
TextSentencer_T120 24090-24553 Sentence denotes Due to current limited knowledge of the epidemiology of the virus at the time of writing (e.g. the proportion and infectiousness of asymptomatic or subclinical infections) and the rapidly changing situation of the outbreak, the simplicity of our approach to define importation risk can help to quickly update risk assessments, prioritise surveillance, target limited resources and understand the potential of 2019n-CoV introduction at specific destinations [32] .
TextSentencer_T120 24090-24553 Sentence denotes Due to current limited knowledge of the epidemiology of the virus at the time of writing (e.g. the proportion and infectiousness of asymptomatic or subclinical infections) and the rapidly changing situation of the outbreak, the simplicity of our approach to define importation risk can help to quickly update risk assessments, prioritise surveillance, target limited resources and understand the potential of 2019n-CoV introduction at specific destinations [32] .
TextSentencer_T121 24554-24855 Sentence denotes Compared with other studies [33, 34] , we explored the various scenarios of travel restriction and used a more comprehensive and spatio-temporally detailed population movement matrix, together with details on the actual final destination cities of air passengers based on the global itinerary dataset.
TextSentencer_T121 24554-24855 Sentence denotes Compared with other studies [33, 34] , we explored the various scenarios of travel restriction and used a more comprehensive and spatio-temporally detailed population movement matrix, together with details on the actual final destination cities of air passengers based on the global itinerary dataset.
TextSentencer_T122 24856-25062 Sentence denotes These novel datasets provide new insights on the impacts of internal and international connectivity on potential transmission of this emerging pathogen during the LNY holiday and over the next three months.
TextSentencer_T122 24856-25062 Sentence denotes These novel datasets provide new insights on the impacts of internal and international connectivity on potential transmission of this emerging pathogen during the LNY holiday and over the next three months.
TextSentencer_T123 25063-25146 Sentence denotes Nevertheless, it is important to note that our study has several major limitations.
TextSentencer_T123 25063-25146 Sentence denotes Nevertheless, it is important to note that our study has several major limitations.
TextSentencer_T124 25147-25289 Sentence denotes Firstly, while we do present simple scenarios of reduced air travel volumes, our primary analyses assume "business as usual" travel based on .
TextSentencer_T124 25147-25289 Sentence denotes Firstly, while we do present simple scenarios of reduced air travel volumes, our primary analyses assume "business as usual" travel based on .
TextSentencer_T125 25290-25441 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T125 25290-25441 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T126 25442-25737 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint previous non-outbreak years, when significant spatio-temporal changes to human travel behaviours across and beyond China have likely occurred recently.
TextSentencer_T126 25442-25737 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint previous non-outbreak years, when significant spatio-temporal changes to human travel behaviours across and beyond China have likely occurred recently.
TextSentencer_T127 25738-25913 Sentence denotes Second, the mobile phone data used may provide an incomplete and biased picture of travellers, as the data only cover the population owning a smart phone and using Baidu apps.
TextSentencer_T127 25738-25913 Sentence denotes Second, the mobile phone data used may provide an incomplete and biased picture of travellers, as the data only cover the population owning a smart phone and using Baidu apps.
TextSentencer_T128 25914-26139 Sentence denotes Third, the case data used in this study likely varies in quality and completeness due to the timeliness of reporting, varying laboratory diagnosis capacities, and differences in details announced on health authority websites.
TextSentencer_T128 25914-26139 Sentence denotes Third, the case data used in this study likely varies in quality and completeness due to the timeliness of reporting, varying laboratory diagnosis capacities, and differences in details announced on health authority websites.
TextSentencer_T129 26140-26421 Sentence denotes Fourth, compared with airline travellers leaving Wuhan prior to January 23 rd evacuees from Wuhan during the January 29 th -31 st period might have a higher risk of infection due to their longer stay in Wuhan during the potential continued spread of the virus since January 23 rd .
TextSentencer_T129 26140-26421 Sentence denotes Fourth, compared with airline travellers leaving Wuhan prior to January 23 rd evacuees from Wuhan during the January 29 th -31 st period might have a higher risk of infection due to their longer stay in Wuhan during the potential continued spread of the virus since January 23 rd .
TextSentencer_T130 26422-26545 Sentence denotes This may result in overestimates of the number of infections in airline travellers from Wuhan prior to the city's lockdown.
TextSentencer_T130 26422-26545 Sentence denotes This may result in overestimates of the number of infections in airline travellers from Wuhan prior to the city's lockdown.
TextSentencer_T131 26546-26843 Sentence denotes Based on more recent population movement and epidemiological data, we aim to conduct more sophisticated modelling approaches to assess the effectiveness of control measures in China, the impact of movements of people returning from LNY holiday, as well as the risks of a 2019-nCoV global pandemic.
TextSentencer_T131 26546-26843 Sentence denotes Based on more recent population movement and epidemiological data, we aim to conduct more sophisticated modelling approaches to assess the effectiveness of control measures in China, the impact of movements of people returning from LNY holiday, as well as the risks of a 2019-nCoV global pandemic.
TextSentencer_T132 26844-26845 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T132 26844-26845 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T133 26846-26997 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T133 26846-26997 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T134 26998-27141 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint
TextSentencer_T134 26998-27141 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint
TextSentencer_T135 27142-27297 Sentence denotes Ethical clearance for collecting and using secondary data in this study was granted by the institutional review board of the University of Southampton (No.
TextSentencer_T135 27142-27297 Sentence denotes Ethical clearance for collecting and using secondary data in this study was granted by the institutional review board of the University of Southampton (No.
TextSentencer_T136 27298-27305 Sentence denotes 48002).
TextSentencer_T136 27298-27305 Sentence denotes 48002).
TextSentencer_T137 27306-27417 Sentence denotes All data were supplied and analysed in an anonymous format, without access to personal identifying information.
TextSentencer_T137 27306-27417 Sentence denotes All data were supplied and analysed in an anonymous format, without access to personal identifying information.
TextSentencer_T138 27418-27426 Sentence denotes 1 4 IIB:
TextSentencer_T138 27418-27426 Sentence denotes 1 4 IIB:
TextSentencer_T139 27427-27540 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript NWR:
TextSentencer_T139 27427-27540 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript NWR:
TextSentencer_T140 27541-27653 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript AW:
TextSentencer_T140 27541-27653 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript AW:
TextSentencer_T141 27654-27766 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript XL:
TextSentencer_T141 27654-27766 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript XL:
TextSentencer_T142 27767-27875 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript
TextSentencer_T142 27767-27875 Sentence denotes Data collection and analysis, interpreted the findings and commented on and revised drafts of the manuscript
TextSentencer_T143 27876-28019 Sentence denotes The corresponding authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.
TextSentencer_T143 27876-28019 Sentence denotes The corresponding authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.
TextSentencer_T144 28020-28160 Sentence denotes The corresponding authors attest that all listed authors meet authorship criteria and that no others meeting the criteria have been omitted.
TextSentencer_T144 28020-28160 Sentence denotes The corresponding authors attest that all listed authors meet authorship criteria and that no others meeting the criteria have been omitted.
TextSentencer_T145 28161-28307 Sentence denotes The datasets on monthly air passenger data in February -April, 2018 used in this study are available from Dr. Kamran Khan (Kamran@bluedot.global).
TextSentencer_T145 28161-28307 Sentence denotes The datasets on monthly air passenger data in February -April, 2018 used in this study are available from Dr. Kamran Khan (Kamran@bluedot.global).
TextSentencer_T146 28308-28385 Sentence denotes The case data are available from Dr. Shengjie Lai (Shengjie.Lai@soton.ac.uk).
TextSentencer_T146 28308-28385 Sentence denotes The case data are available from Dr. Shengjie Lai (Shengjie.Lai@soton.ac.uk).
TextSentencer_T147 28386-28537 Sentence denotes The datasets on holidays and air travel statistics from 2010 through 2018 used for validation are available on the WorldPop website (www.worldpop.org).
TextSentencer_T147 28386-28537 Sentence denotes The datasets on holidays and air travel statistics from 2010 through 2018 used for validation are available on the WorldPop website (www.worldpop.org).
TextSentencer_T148 28538-28858 Sentence denotes The mobile phone datasets analysed during the current study are not publicly available since this would compromise the agreement with the data provider, but information on the process of requesting access to the data that support the findings of this study are available from Dr. Shengjie Lai (Shengjie.Lai@soton.ac.uk).
TextSentencer_T148 28538-28858 Sentence denotes The mobile phone datasets analysed during the current study are not publicly available since this would compromise the agreement with the data provider, but information on the process of requesting access to the data that support the findings of this study are available from Dr. Shengjie Lai (Shengjie.Lai@soton.ac.uk).
TextSentencer_T149 28859-28860 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T149 28859-28860 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T150 28861-29012 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T150 28861-29012 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T151 29013-29233 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint the first half (N=67) and second half (N=80) of January, 2020, respectively.
TextSentencer_T151 29013-29233 Sentence denotes is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479 doi: medRxiv preprint the first half (N=67) and second half (N=80) of January, 2020, respectively.
TextSentencer_T152 29234-29315 Sentence denotes A total of 164 cases with available data as of January 25th, 2020, were included.
TextSentencer_T152 29234-29315 Sentence denotes A total of 164 cases with available data as of January 25th, 2020, were included.
TextSentencer_T153 29316-29581 Sentence denotes The risk of importation at city level was preliminarily defined as the averaged percentage of travellers received by each city out of the total volume of travellers leaving each high-risk city, based on the population movement data in 2015 obtained from Baidu, Inc.
TextSentencer_T153 29316-29581 Sentence denotes The risk of importation at city level was preliminarily defined as the averaged percentage of travellers received by each city out of the total volume of travellers leaving each high-risk city, based on the population movement data in 2015 obtained from Baidu, Inc.
TextSentencer_T154 29582-29952 Sentence denotes The high-risk cities include Wuhan in Hubei province and 17 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Changsha, Xi'an, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanchang, Chengdu, Hefei, Fuzhou, and Dongguan) in other provinces receiving high volume of travellers from Wuhan during the two weeks before the city's lockdown on January 23 rd , 2020.
TextSentencer_T154 29582-29952 Sentence denotes The high-risk cities include Wuhan in Hubei province and 17 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Changsha, Xi'an, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanchang, Chengdu, Hefei, Fuzhou, and Dongguan) in other provinces receiving high volume of travellers from Wuhan during the two weeks before the city's lockdown on January 23 rd , 2020.
TextSentencer_T155 29953-29954 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T155 29953-29954 Sentence denotes .
TextSentencer_T156 29955-30106 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
TextSentencer_T156 29955-30106 Sentence denotes CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.