PubMed:32234117 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PubMed/sourceid/32234117","sourcedb":"PubMed","sourceid":"32234117","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234117","text":"Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020.\nSustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. 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