PMC:7797241 / 15729-17660
Annnotations
{"target":"http://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7797241","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7797241","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7797241","text":"Table 1 Parameter estimates used in the model and their sources. The distributions of unknown parameters are shown in online supplemental figure S1A for the best 100 fits\nSymbol Description Uniform prior (min and max) or point estimate\n1 / η Duration of the non-infectious exposure period 5.1 days41\nδ Percentage of infections which become symptomatic 82.1%42; vary between 73.15% and 91.05%\n1 / μ Duration of symptoms while not hospitalised (independent of outcome) Vary between 2 and 14 days\n1 / ρ Duration of stay in acute bed (independent of outcome) Vary between 2 and 14 days\nγ g Percentage of symptomatic cases which will require hospitalisation 0–4=0.00%, 5–17=0.0408%, 18–29=1.04%,30–39=2.04%–7.00%, 40–49=2.53%–8.68%,50–59=4.86%–16.7%, 60–69=7.01%–24.0%,70+=9.87%–37.6%16\n1 / ψ Duration of stay in IC bed (independent of outcome) 3–11 days43\nϵ Percentage of those requiring hospitalisation who will require IC Vary between 0% and 30%\nω g Percentage of those requiring IC who will die 0–4=0.00%, 5–17=0.00%, 18–29=18.1%,30–39=18.1%, 40–49=24.7%,50–59=39.3%, 60–69=53.9%,70+=65.3%43\nκ Percentage of those requiring acute beds (but not IC) who will die Vary between 5% and 35%\nschool Percentage of 0–18 year-olds attending school after 23 March 2020 Assume 5%\ndistancing Percentage reduction in contact rates due to social distancing after 15 March 2020 Vary between 0% and 50%\nlockdown Percentage reduction in contact rates due to lockdown after 23 March 2020 Retail/recreation: Bristol 86%, Bath 90%, Plymouth 85%, Gloucs 84%, Somerset 82%, Devon 85%, Dorset 84%44Transit stations: Bristol 78%, Bath 71%, Plymouth 65%, Gloucs 69%, Somerset 67%, Devon 66%, Dorset 63%44Vary between 63% and 90%\nR 0 Initial reproductive number of COVID-19 1.63–3.9524\nendphase Time taken to fully adjust (across the population, on average) to new interventions Vary between 1 and 31 days\nIC, intensive 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