PMC:7172840 / 2301-4084 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7172840","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7172840","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7172840","text":"It is quite evident that one of the reports which had great impact on decision making during the current crisis is the report of Neil Ferguson et al. on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demands [1]. In their report, using a transmission model founded on an individual-based simulation model for pandemic influenza, the authors investigated the effects of 2 intervention strategies in a UK and a USA context: 1 – Mitigation strategy with the aim of slowing down transmission but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread (reproduction number R not necessarily \u003c1) with protection of more vulnerable groups and reducing the peak healthcare demand, 2 – Suppression strategy in which epidemic spread is reversed to reproduction number (R) \u003c1. Interventions in the mitigation strategy would be case isolation, quarantine of household contacts of a case and social distancing of the elderly (\u003e70 years). In the suppression group social distancing of all age groups, household quarantine and closing schools and universities are further interventions. In the mitigation strategy interventions have to be timely instituted (not too early) to give chance for herd immunity to develop. With the suppression strategy the more successful the interventions are applied the less possibility of herd immunity and hence another epidemic is expected later this year after relaxing the instituted interventions. The authors concluded that the mitigation strategy, although associated with a herd immunity would result in overwhelming the healthcare system in both the UK and the USA and that it will never be able to completely protect those at risk from severe disease or death and the resulting mortality would therefore still be 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