PMC:7047374 / 1335-3455 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7047374","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7047374","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7047374","text":"f secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.\n\nConclusions\nOur model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.\n\nBackground\nOn 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, and WHO reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020, was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January [1]. It is reported that the virus might be bat origin [2], and the transmission of the virus might related to a seafood market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) exposure [3, 4]. The genetic features and some clinical findings of the infection have been reported recently [4–6]. Potentials for international spread via commercial air travel had been assessed [7]. Public health concerns are being paid globally on how many people are infected and suspected.\nTherefore, it is urgent to develop a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility and dynamic of the transmission of the virus. There were several researches focusing on mathematical modelling [3, 8]. These researches focused on calculating the basic reproduction number (R0) by using the serial intervals and intrinsic growth rate [3, 9, 10], or using ordinary differential equations and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods [8]. However, the bat origin and the transmission route form the seafood market to people were not considered in the published models.\nIn this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the 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