PMC:7033348 / 15924-17136 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7033348","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7033348","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7033348","text":"15-days ahead forecasts\nThe latest 15 day ahead forecasts predict a cumulative reported case count between 37,415 and 38,028 cases, on average, in Hubei by February 24, 2020. Further, the latest 15 day ahead forecasts suggest an average cumulative case count between 11,588 and 13,499 cases for other provinces. These forecasts correspond with an additional 10,315–10,928 cases in Hubei and an additional 1399–3310 cases in other provinces within the next 15 days.\nAgain, the sub-epidemic model yields significantly higher forecasts for Hubei on February 5th, compared to the other models and compared to subsequent prediction intervals on following dates (Fig. 3 a). The width of prediction intervals decreases as more data are included for each of the models in both Hubei and other provinces. This is consistent with shorter-term forecasts in Hubei but differs from the pattern of shorter-term forecasts in other provinces.\nFig. 3 Forecasting results for 15-days ahead estimates, generated daily from February 5–9, 2020, of cumulative reported cases in Hubei (a) and other provinces (b). The mean case estimate is represented by the dots, while the lines represent the 95% prediction intervals for each model.","divisions":[{"label":"title","span":{"begin":0,"end":23}},{"label":"p","span":{"begin":24,"end":464}},{"label":"label","span":{"begin":927,"end":933}}],"tracks":[{"project":"LitCovid-PD-CLO","denotations":[{"id":"T66","span":{"begin":66,"end":67},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T67","span":{"begin":664,"end":665},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T68","span":{"begin":1063,"end":1064},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T69","span":{"begin":1087,"end":1088},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001021"}],"attributes":[{"subj":"T66","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-CLO"},{"subj":"T67","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-CLO"},{"subj":"T68","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-CLO"},{"subj":"T69","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-CLO"}]},{"project":"LitCovid-sentences","denotations":[{"id":"T104","span":{"begin":0,"end":23},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T105","span":{"begin":24,"end":174},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T106","span":{"begin":175,"end":311},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T107","span":{"begin":312,"end":464},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T108","span":{"begin":465,"end":667},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T109","span":{"begin":668,"end":795},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T110","span":{"begin":796,"end":926},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T111","span":{"begin":927,"end":1090},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T112","span":{"begin":1091,"end":1212},"obj":"Sentence"}],"namespaces":[{"prefix":"_base","uri":"http://pubannotation.org/ontology/tao.owl#"}],"attributes":[{"subj":"T104","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T105","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T106","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T107","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T108","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T109","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T110","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T111","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T112","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"}]}],"config":{"attribute types":[{"pred":"source","value type":"selection","values":[{"id":"LitCovid-PD-CLO","color":"#93d1ec","default":true},{"id":"LitCovid-sentences","color":"#ebec93"}]}]}}