PMC:7033348 / 14331-15922 JSONTXT

{"project":"LitCovid-PD-CLO","denotations":[{"id":"T61","span":{"begin":204,"end":207},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001236"},{"id":"T62","span":{"begin":674,"end":675},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T63","span":{"begin":698,"end":699},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001021"},{"id":"T64","span":{"begin":1072,"end":1074},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001236"},{"id":"T65","span":{"begin":1273,"end":1275},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001236"}],"text":"10-days ahead forecasts\nThe 10 day ahead forecasts generated on February 9, 2020 from the three models estimate between 36,854 and 37,230 cumulative cases, on average, in Hubei by February 19, 2020 (Fig. 2 a). For other provinces, the latest 10 day ahead forecasts predict average cumulative case counts between 11,549 and 13,069 cases across the three models (Fig. 2b). These estimates correspond with an additional 9754–10,130 cases in Hubei and an additional 1360–2880 cases reported in other provinces on average in the next 10 days.\nFig. 2 Forecasting results for 10-days ahead estimates, generated daily from February 5–9, 2020, of cumulative reported cases in Hubei (a) and other provinces (b). The mean case estimate is represented by the dots, while the lines represent the 95% prediction intervals for each model.\n10 day ahead forecasts of case counts in Hubei generated on February 5th show significantly different results between the GLM and Richards versus the sub-epidemic model, with the sub-epidemic model predicting significantly higher case counts (Fig. 2a). For forecasts generated after February 5th, the prediction intervals of the three models are comparable, with the GLM intervals having the lowest uncertainty, followed by the Richards model (Fig. 2a). For other provinces, the sub-epidemic model yields significantly wider prediction intervals than the other two models. Like the 5 day ahead forecasts, the 10 day ahead prediction intervals become increasingly narrow for Hubei when including more data, but uncertainty remains relatively stable in other provinces."}

{"project":"LitCovid-sentences","denotations":[{"id":"T94","span":{"begin":0,"end":23},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T95","span":{"begin":24,"end":209},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T96","span":{"begin":210,"end":370},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T97","span":{"begin":371,"end":537},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T98","span":{"begin":538,"end":701},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T99","span":{"begin":702,"end":823},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T100","span":{"begin":824,"end":1076},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T101","span":{"begin":1077,"end":1277},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T102","span":{"begin":1278,"end":1396},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T103","span":{"begin":1397,"end":1591},"obj":"Sentence"}],"namespaces":[{"prefix":"_base","uri":"http://pubannotation.org/ontology/tao.owl#"}],"text":"10-days ahead forecasts\nThe 10 day ahead forecasts generated on February 9, 2020 from the three models estimate between 36,854 and 37,230 cumulative cases, on average, in Hubei by February 19, 2020 (Fig. 2 a). For other provinces, the latest 10 day ahead forecasts predict average cumulative case counts between 11,549 and 13,069 cases across the three models (Fig. 2b). These estimates correspond with an additional 9754–10,130 cases in Hubei and an additional 1360–2880 cases reported in other provinces on average in the next 10 days.\nFig. 2 Forecasting results for 10-days ahead estimates, generated daily from February 5–9, 2020, of cumulative reported cases in Hubei (a) and other provinces (b). The mean case estimate is represented by the dots, while the lines represent the 95% prediction intervals for each model.\n10 day ahead forecasts of case counts in Hubei generated on February 5th show significantly different results between the GLM and Richards versus the sub-epidemic model, with the sub-epidemic model predicting significantly higher case counts (Fig. 2a). For forecasts generated after February 5th, the prediction intervals of the three models are comparable, with the GLM intervals having the lowest uncertainty, followed by the Richards model (Fig. 2a). For other provinces, the sub-epidemic model yields significantly wider prediction intervals than the other two models. Like the 5 day ahead forecasts, the 10 day ahead prediction intervals become increasingly narrow for Hubei when including more data, but uncertainty remains relatively stable in other provinces."}