PMC:7033348 / 11028-12541 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7033348","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7033348","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7033348","text":"Model calibration\nOur results for Hubei province indicate that the parameter estimates for the three models tend to stabilize and decrease in uncertainty as more data become available (Supplemental Table 1). In particular, the growth rate r decreases and appears to be converging over time, particularly for the GLM and sub-epidemic model. Parameter K also follows this general trend, with prediction intervals decreasing significantly in width as more data become available. Importantly, the p estimates from the GLM indicate that the epidemic growth in Hubei is close to exponential (p = 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98, 1) – February 9th). Further, growth rate and scaling parameter estimates have remained relatively stable over the last three reporting dates, while estimates of K are still declining. This may correlate with the effectiveness of control measures or the slowing of the epidemic.\nFor the trajectory that aggregates all other provinces (excluding Hubei), the parameter estimates follow trends that differ from those for Hubei (Supplemental Table 2). While the three models estimated stable and nearly equivalent growth rates in Hubei, the estimated growth rates for other provinces vary across models and do not follow a distinct trend as more data become available. However, the scaling and size parameters remain relatively stable across all dates. Further, the p estimates from the GLM reveal a consistent sub-exponential growth pattern in other provinces (p = 0.67 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.70) – February 9th).","divisions":[{"label":"title","span":{"begin":0,"end":17}},{"label":"p","span":{"begin":18,"end":887}}],"tracks":[{"project":"LitCovid-PD-CLO","denotations":[{"id":"T55","span":{"begin":1226,"end":1227},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T56","span":{"begin":1403,"end":1404},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"}],"attributes":[{"subj":"T55","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-CLO"},{"subj":"T56","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-CLO"}]},{"project":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP","denotations":[{"id":"T9","span":{"begin":227,"end":233},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/GO_0040007"},{"id":"T10","span":{"begin":545,"end":551},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/GO_0040007"},{"id":"T11","span":{"begin":639,"end":645},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/GO_0040007"},{"id":"T12","span":{"begin":1119,"end":1125},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/GO_0040007"},{"id":"T13","span":{"begin":1156,"end":1162},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/GO_0040007"},{"id":"T14","span":{"begin":1432,"end":1446},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/GO_0040007"}],"attributes":[{"subj":"T9","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP"},{"subj":"T10","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP"},{"subj":"T11","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP"},{"subj":"T12","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP"},{"subj":"T13","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP"},{"subj":"T14","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP"}]},{"project":"LitCovid-sentences","denotations":[{"id":"T70","span":{"begin":0,"end":17},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T71","span":{"begin":18,"end":207},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T72","span":{"begin":208,"end":339},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T73","span":{"begin":340,"end":475},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T74","span":{"begin":476,"end":603},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T75","span":{"begin":604,"end":629},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T76","span":{"begin":630,"end":793},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T77","span":{"begin":794,"end":887},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T78","span":{"begin":888,"end":1056},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T79","span":{"begin":1057,"end":1273},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T80","span":{"begin":1274,"end":1357},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T81","span":{"begin":1358,"end":1484},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T82","span":{"begin":1485,"end":1513},"obj":"Sentence"}],"namespaces":[{"prefix":"_base","uri":"http://pubannotation.org/ontology/tao.owl#"}],"attributes":[{"subj":"T70","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T71","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T72","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T73","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T74","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T75","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T76","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T77","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T78","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T79","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T80","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T81","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"},{"subj":"T82","pred":"source","obj":"LitCovid-sentences"}]}],"config":{"attribute types":[{"pred":"source","value type":"selection","values":[{"id":"LitCovid-PD-CLO","color":"#93ecaf","default":true},{"id":"LitCovid-PD-GO-BP","color":"#ec9593"},{"id":"LitCovid-sentences","color":"#93abec"}]}]}}