PMC:7014668 / 1916-3210 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7014668","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7014668","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7014668","text":"We simulated 100 2019-nCoV infected travellers planning to board a flight who would pose a risk for seeding transmission in a new region. The duration of travel was considered as the flight time plus a small amount of additional travel time (ca 1 hour) for airport procedures. We assumed that infected individuals will develop symptoms, including fever, at the end of their incubation period (mean 5.2 days (Table)) [8] and progress to more severe symptoms after a few days, resulting in hospitalisation and isolation. We also took into account that individuals may have asymptomatic (subclinical) infection that would not be detected by thermal scanning or cause them to seek medical care, although these individuals may be infectious, and that infected travellers may exhibit severe symptoms during their travel and be hospitalised upon arrival without undergoing entry screening. We then estimated the proportion of infected travellers who would be detected by exit and entry screening, develop severe symptoms during travel, or go undetected, under varying assumptions of: (i) the duration of travel; (ii) the sensitivity of exit and entry screening; (iii) the proportion of asymptomatic infections; (iv) the incubation period and (v) the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation 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