PMC:7001239 / 7767-10674 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7001239","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7001239","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7001239","text":"Comparison with past emergences of respiratory viruses\nComparison with other emerging coronaviruses in the past allows to put into perspective the available information regarding the transmission patterns of 2019-nCoV. Figure 3 shows the combinations of R0 and k that are most likely at this stage of the epidemic. Our estimates of R0 and k are more similar to previous estimates focusing on early human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV in Beijing and Singapore [7] than of Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV) [9]. The spread of MERS-CoV was characterised by small clusters of transmission following repeated instances of animal-to-human transmission events, mainly driven by the occurrence of superspreading events in hospital settings. MERS-CoV could however not sustain human-to-human transmission beyond a few generations [12]. Conversely, the international spread of SARS-CoV lasted for 9 months and was driven by sustained human-to-human transmission, with occasional superspreading events. It led to more than 8,000 cases around the world and required extensive efforts by public health authorities to be contained [13]. Our assessment of the early transmission of 2019-nCoV suggests that 2019-nCoV might follow a similar path.\nFigure 3 Proportion of simulated epidemics that lead to a cumulative incidence between 1,000 and 9,700 of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, China, on 18 January 2020\nMERS: Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus; SARS: severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus.\nThis can be interpreted as the combinations of R0 and k values most compatible with the estimation of epidemic size before quarantine measures were put in place. As a comparison, we show the estimates of R0 and k for the early human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV in Singapore and Beijing and of 1918 pandemic influenza [7,9,14]. Our estimates for 2019-nCoV are also compatible with those of 1918 pandemic influenza, for which k was estimated [14]. Human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses is characterised by R0 values between 1.5 and 2 and a larger value of k, implying a more steady transmission without superspreading. The emergence of new strains of influenza, for which human populations carried little to no immunity contrary to seasonal influenza, led to pandemics with different severity such as the ones in1918, 1957 1968 and 2009. It is notable that coronaviruses differ from influenza viruses in many aspects, and evidence for the 2019-nCoV with respect to case fatality rate, transmissibility from asymptomatic individuals and speed of transmission is still limited. Without speculating about possible consequences, the values of R0 and k found here during the early stage of 2019-nCoV emergence and the lack of immunity to 2019-nCoV in the human population leave open the possibility for pandemic circulation of this new 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