PMC:7001239 / 6259-7765 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7001239","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7001239","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7001239","text":"Transmission characteristics of the 2019 novel coronavirus\nIn order to reach between 1,000 and 9,700 infected cases by 18 January 2020, the early human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV was characterised by values of R0 around 2.2 (median value, with 90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8) (Figure 1). The observed data at this point are compatible with a large range of values for the dispersion parameter k (median: 0.54, 90% high density interval: 0.014–6.95). However, our simulations suggest that very low values of k are less likely. These estimates incorporate the uncertainty about the total epidemic size on 18 January 2020 and about the date and scale of the initial zoonotic event (Figure 2).\nFigure 1 Values of R0 and k most compatible with the estimated size of the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic in China, on 18 January 2020\nThe basic reproduction number R0 quantifies human-to-human transmission. The dispersion parameter k quantifies the risk of a superspreading event (lower values of k are linked to a higher probability of superspreading). Note that the probability density of k implies a log10 transformation.\nFigure 2 Illustration of the simulation strategy, 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, China, 2019–2020\nThe lines represent the cumulative incidence of 480 simulations with R0 = 1.8 and k = 1.13. The other parameters are left to vary according to the Table. Among these simulated epidemics, 54.3% led to a cumulative incidence between 1,000 and 9,700 on 18 January 2020 (in 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