Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T92 |
0-36 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Parameter estimates and data sources |
T93 |
37-78 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Model parameters are detailed in table 1. |
T94 |
79-148 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We used available published literature to inform parameter estimates. |
T95 |
149-584 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We used the following publicly available metrics for model fitting: regional cumulative cases in SW (tested and confirmed cases in hospital), and deaths (daily/cumulative counts) from the Public Health England COVID-19 dashboard,14 and ONS weekly provisional data on COVID-19-related deaths.25 The case data are finalised prior to the previous 5 days, so we include all data until 14 May 2020, based on data reported until 18 May 2020. |
T96 |
585-799 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The mortality data from ONS do not explicitly state the number of COVID-19-related deaths occurring in hospital, but they do report this value nationally (83.9% of COVID-19 deaths in hospital, as of 17 April 2020). |
T97 |
800-942 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We assume that this percentage applies to the SW data and rescale the mortality to 83.9% to represent an estimate of total deaths in hospital. |
T98 |
943-1008 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Table 1 Parameter estimates used in the model and their sources. |
T99 |
1009-1114 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The distributions of unknown parameters are shown in online supplemental figure S1A for the best 100 fits |
T100 |
1115-1181 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Symbol Description Uniform prior (min and max) or point estimate |
T101 |
1182-1247 |
Sentence |
denotes |
1 / η Duration of the non-infectious exposure period 5.1 days41 |
T102 |
1248-1341 |
Sentence |
denotes |
δ Percentage of infections which become symptomatic 82.1%42; vary between 73.15% and 91.05% |
T103 |
1342-1445 |
Sentence |
denotes |
1 / μ Duration of symptoms while not hospitalised (independent of outcome) Vary between 2 and 14 days |
T104 |
1446-1535 |
Sentence |
denotes |
1 / ρ Duration of stay in acute bed (independent of outcome) Vary between 2 and 14 days |
T105 |
1536-1738 |
Sentence |
denotes |
γ g Percentage of symptomatic cases which will require hospitalisation 0–4=0.00%, 5–17=0.0408%, 18–29=1.04%,30–39=2.04%–7.00%, 40–49=2.53%–8.68%,50–59=4.86%–16.7%, 60–69=7.01%–24.0%,70+=9.87%–37.6%16 |
T106 |
1739-1810 |
Sentence |
denotes |
1 / ψ Duration of stay in IC bed (independent of outcome) 3–11 days43 |
T107 |
1811-1904 |
Sentence |
denotes |
ϵ Percentage of those requiring hospitalisation who will require IC Vary between 0% and 30% |
T108 |
1905-2054 |
Sentence |
denotes |
ω g Percentage of those requiring IC who will die 0–4=0.00%, 5–17=0.00%, 18–29=18.1%,30–39=18.1%, 40–49=24.7%,50–59=39.3%, 60–69=53.9%,70+=65.3%43 |
T109 |
2055-2149 |
Sentence |
denotes |
κ Percentage of those requiring acute beds (but not IC) who will die Vary between 5% and 35% |
T110 |
2150-2234 |
Sentence |
denotes |
school Percentage of 0–18 year-olds attending school after 23 March 2020 Assume 5% |
T111 |
2235-2354 |
Sentence |
denotes |
distancing Percentage reduction in contact rates due to social distancing after 15 March 2020 Vary between 0% and 50% |
T112 |
2355-2458 |
Sentence |
denotes |
lockdown Percentage reduction in contact rates due to lockdown after 23 March 2020 Retail/recreation: |
T113 |
2459-2562 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Bristol 86%, Bath 90%, Plymouth 85%, Gloucs 84%, Somerset 82%, Devon 85%, Dorset 84%44Transit stations: |
T114 |
2563-2673 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Bristol 78%, Bath 71%, Plymouth 65%, Gloucs 69%, Somerset 67%, Devon 66%, Dorset 63%44Vary between 63% and 90% |
T115 |
2674-2732 |
Sentence |
denotes |
R 0 Initial reproductive number of COVID-19 1.63–3.9524 |
T116 |
2733-2854 |
Sentence |
denotes |
endphase Time taken to fully adjust (across the population, on average) to new interventions Vary between 1 and 31 days |
T117 |
2855-2874 |
Sentence |
denotes |
IC, intensive care. |