| Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
| T3 |
0-10 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Objectives |
| T4 |
11-216 |
Sentence |
denotes |
To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case. |
| T5 |
218-224 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Design |
| T6 |
225-339 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. |
| T7 |
340-464 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths. |
| T8 |
466-473 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Setting |
| T9 |
474-637 |
Sentence |
denotes |
SW at a time considered early in the pandemic, where National Health Service authorities required evidence to guide localised planning and support decision-making. |
| T10 |
639-651 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Participants |
| T11 |
652-702 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Publicly available data on patients with COVID-19. |
| T12 |
704-742 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Primary and secondary outcome measures |
| T13 |
743-900 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The expected numbers of infected cases, deaths due to COVID-19 infection, patient occupancy of acute and IC beds and the reproduction (‘R’) number over time. |
| T14 |
902-909 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Results |
| T15 |
910-1351 |
Sentence |
denotes |
SW model projections indicate that, as of 11 May 2020 (when ‘lockdown’ measures were eased), 5793 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2003 to 12 051) individuals were still infectious (0.10% of the total SW population, 95% CrI 0.04% to 0.22%), and a total of 189 048 (95% CrI 141 580 to 277 955) had been infected with the virus (either asymptomatically or symptomatically), but recovered, which is 3.4% (95% CrI 2.5% to 5.0%) of the SW population. |
| T16 |
1352-1514 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The total number of patients in acute and IC beds in the SW on 11 May 2020 was predicted to be 701 (95% CrI 169 to 1543) and 110 (95% CrI 8 to 464), respectively. |
| T17 |
1515-1757 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The R value in SW was predicted to be 2.6 (95% CrI 2.0 to 3.2) prior to any interventions, with social distancing reducing this to 2.3 (95% CrI 1.8 to 2.9) and lockdown/school closures further reducing the R value to 0.6 (95% CrI 0.5 to 0.7). |
| T18 |
1759-1770 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Conclusions |
| T19 |
1771-1852 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The developed model has proved a valuable asset for regional healthcare services. |
| T20 |
1853-2002 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The model will be used further in the SW as the pandemic evolves, and—as open-source software—is portable to healthcare systems in other geographies. |