PMC:7497282 / 41788-43761
Annnotations
{"target":"http://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7497282","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7497282","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7497282","text":"Given delays in achieving eradication and requests from the GPEI partners, starting in 2013 KRI began modeling pre-eradication activities and to explore options to help accelerate eradication. KRI applied its transmission model [33] to characterize the potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio SIAs [35] and to stop and prevent poliovirus transmission in two high-risk areas in northern India [36] and in the high-risk area of northwest Nigeria [40]. Considering potential US risks, KRI developed and applied an IB model to characterize the potential for transmission of polioviruses following an introduction of a LPV into the Amish communities in North America [41]. Consistent with prior recognition of the potential for circulation of imported LPVs in areas with high IPV-only coverage based on its US modeling [26], KRI modeled population immunity to transmission and management strategies for Israel following the observation of WPV serotype 1 transmission in Israel despite its high coverage with IPV only [43]. In contrast to some other areas in the US, KRI reported relatively little heterogeneity in six counties in Central Florida at high risk of importations due to international family entertainment attractions [44]. KRI discussed some lessons from the GPEI relevant to measles and rubella eradication [45]. Insights from KRI modeling showed the importance of focusing on immunization program performance (i.e. achieving high coverage with OPV) to maintain population immunity to transmission as the key to success in the polio endgame [42]. Many KRI modeling studies emphasized the failure to vaccinate with OPV as the primary cause of delay in achieving and maintaining WPV eradication, and the importance of heterogeneity in populations that leads to pockets of preferentially-mixing under-immunized individuals that can sustain transmission [35, 36, 40, 41, 43]. KRI provided a high-level review of the policy impacts of its modeling 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