PMC:7455036 / 12287-17543 JSONTXT

{"project":"LitCovid-PD-MONDO","denotations":[{"id":"T26","span":{"begin":606,"end":619},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T27","span":{"begin":750,"end":760},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T28","span":{"begin":813,"end":823},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T29","span":{"begin":1265,"end":1274},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T30","span":{"begin":1522,"end":1532},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T31","span":{"begin":1962,"end":1975},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T32","span":{"begin":2129,"end":2142},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T33","span":{"begin":2691,"end":2704},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T34","span":{"begin":3130,"end":3143},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T35","span":{"begin":3622,"end":3632},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T36","span":{"begin":3908,"end":3921},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T37","span":{"begin":4602,"end":4615},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"T38","span":{"begin":5182,"end":5195},"obj":"Disease"}],"attributes":[{"id":"A26","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T26","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A27","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T27","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A28","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T28","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A29","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T29","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A30","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T30","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A31","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T31","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A32","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T32","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A33","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T33","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A34","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T34","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A35","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T35","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A36","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T36","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A37","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T37","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"},{"id":"A38","pred":"mondo_id","subj":"T38","obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/MONDO_0005550"}],"text":"Evaluation of the effectiveness of city lockdown and intensive community screening\nWe calculated α values for Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei (Fig 2), and found that the α value of Wuhan decreased slightly after city lockdown (from 0.869 on January 23 to 0.228 on February 16). However, the α value of China excluding Hubei decreased steadily after January 23 (from 5.563 on January 23 to 0.064 on February 16). These results suggest that the rapid spread of the virus from Wuhan to other cities was effectively suppressed, but not the local spread in Wuhan.\nFig 2 Real-world α values and numbers of infections in Wuhan city from January 20 to March 10 and in China excluding Hubei from January 23 to March 11.\nReal α values (A) and numbers of infections (B) in Wuhan city; real α values (C) and numbers of infections (D) in China excluding Hubei. The nationwide intensive community screening (starting on February 16) was associated with a significant decrease in the α value of Wuhan city (from 0.228 on February 16 to 0.003 on March 10) and a stable α value of China excluding Hubei (from 0.064 on February 16 to 0.079 on March 10). This suggests that intensive community screening significantly enhanced the effectiveness of Wuhan city isolation and kept infection levels stable in other regions. As a result, the infected cases decreased significantly in Wuhan and China excluding Hubei, from 36385 and 8163 on February 16, respectively, to 13462 and 493 on March 11 (Fig 2).\nNext, we predicted the increase in infections, supposing that the two measures had never been implemented. To assess the impacts of city lockdown on Wuhan, the lowest α value before January 23 was set as the α value before city lockdown, and we made the same assumption for the recovery number. Infections in Wuhan were predicted from January 24 to February 15 using simulated α values and φ values. Similar analyses were performed using data from China excluding Hubei. The infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 36241 and 129269, respectively, on February 15. In reality, with city lockdown, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 36547 and 8533, respectively (Fig 3).\nFig 3 Impact of city lockdown on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (B) The α values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (C) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the number of infections in Wuhan city from January 24 to February 15. (D) The φ values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (F) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei province from January 24 to February 15. Similar analyses were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of intensive community screening. For Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei, the α values from February 16 to March 10 were predicted using data from February 6 to February 15, and the φ values from February 16 to March 11 were predicted using data from February 11 to February 15. Then we used the predicted α values to calculate daily_recover_num, and infections from February 16 to March 11 were modeled using the predicted values of α and daily_recover_num. Infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 116003 and 388, respectively, on March 11. In reality, with intensive community screening, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 15892 and 610, respectively, on March 11 (Fig 4).\nFig 4 Impact of intensive community screening on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (B) The α values from February 6 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the α values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (C) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11. (D) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 6 to February 15 were used to predict the α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (F) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11."}

{"project":"LitCovid-PD-CLO","denotations":[{"id":"T74","span":{"begin":468,"end":473},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/NCBITaxon_10239"},{"id":"T75","span":{"begin":713,"end":715},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T76","span":{"begin":732,"end":733},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T77","span":{"begin":762,"end":763},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001021"},{"id":"T78","span":{"begin":945,"end":946},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T79","span":{"begin":1050,"end":1051},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T80","span":{"begin":1310,"end":1311},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T81","span":{"begin":1475,"end":1477},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T82","span":{"begin":2305,"end":2306},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T83","span":{"begin":2347,"end":2349},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0050507"},{"id":"T84","span":{"begin":2462,"end":2463},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001021"},{"id":"T85","span":{"begin":2504,"end":2506},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0050507"},{"id":"T86","span":{"begin":2811,"end":2813},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0050507"},{"id":"T87","span":{"begin":2965,"end":2967},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0050507"},{"id":"T88","span":{"begin":3488,"end":3490},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T89","span":{"begin":3531,"end":3533},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T90","span":{"begin":3659,"end":3661},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T91","span":{"begin":3841,"end":3843},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T92","span":{"begin":4002,"end":4004},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T93","span":{"begin":4112,"end":4113},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001020"},{"id":"T94","span":{"begin":4142,"end":4144},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T95","span":{"begin":4276,"end":4278},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T96","span":{"begin":4319,"end":4320},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0001021"},{"id":"T97","span":{"begin":4653,"end":4655},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T98","span":{"begin":4688,"end":4690},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T99","span":{"begin":4842,"end":4844},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"},{"id":"T100","span":{"begin":5253,"end":5255},"obj":"http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/CLO_0053733"}],"text":"Evaluation of the effectiveness of city lockdown and intensive community screening\nWe calculated α values for Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei (Fig 2), and found that the α value of Wuhan decreased slightly after city lockdown (from 0.869 on January 23 to 0.228 on February 16). However, the α value of China excluding Hubei decreased steadily after January 23 (from 5.563 on January 23 to 0.064 on February 16). These results suggest that the rapid spread of the virus from Wuhan to other cities was effectively suppressed, but not the local spread in Wuhan.\nFig 2 Real-world α values and numbers of infections in Wuhan city from January 20 to March 10 and in China excluding Hubei from January 23 to March 11.\nReal α values (A) and numbers of infections (B) in Wuhan city; real α values (C) and numbers of infections (D) in China excluding Hubei. The nationwide intensive community screening (starting on February 16) was associated with a significant decrease in the α value of Wuhan city (from 0.228 on February 16 to 0.003 on March 10) and a stable α value of China excluding Hubei (from 0.064 on February 16 to 0.079 on March 10). This suggests that intensive community screening significantly enhanced the effectiveness of Wuhan city isolation and kept infection levels stable in other regions. As a result, the infected cases decreased significantly in Wuhan and China excluding Hubei, from 36385 and 8163 on February 16, respectively, to 13462 and 493 on March 11 (Fig 2).\nNext, we predicted the increase in infections, supposing that the two measures had never been implemented. To assess the impacts of city lockdown on Wuhan, the lowest α value before January 23 was set as the α value before city lockdown, and we made the same assumption for the recovery number. Infections in Wuhan were predicted from January 24 to February 15 using simulated α values and φ values. Similar analyses were performed using data from China excluding Hubei. The infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 36241 and 129269, respectively, on February 15. In reality, with city lockdown, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 36547 and 8533, respectively (Fig 3).\nFig 3 Impact of city lockdown on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (B) The α values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (C) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the number of infections in Wuhan city from January 24 to February 15. (D) The φ values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (F) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei province from January 24 to February 15. Similar analyses were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of intensive community screening. For Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei, the α values from February 16 to March 10 were predicted using data from February 6 to February 15, and the φ values from February 16 to March 11 were predicted using data from February 11 to February 15. Then we used the predicted α values to calculate daily_recover_num, and infections from February 16 to March 11 were modeled using the predicted values of α and daily_recover_num. Infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 116003 and 388, respectively, on March 11. In reality, with intensive community screening, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 15892 and 610, respectively, on March 11 (Fig 4).\nFig 4 Impact of intensive community screening on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (B) The α values from February 6 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the α values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (C) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11. (D) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 6 to February 15 were used to predict the α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (F) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11."}

{"project":"LitCovid-sentences","denotations":[{"id":"T102","span":{"begin":0,"end":82},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T103","span":{"begin":83,"end":282},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T104","span":{"begin":283,"end":416},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T105","span":{"begin":417,"end":563},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T106","span":{"begin":564,"end":716},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T107","span":{"begin":717,"end":853},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T108","span":{"begin":854,"end":1141},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T109","span":{"begin":1142,"end":1306},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T110","span":{"begin":1307,"end":1486},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T111","span":{"begin":1487,"end":1593},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T112","span":{"begin":1594,"end":1781},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T113","span":{"begin":1782,"end":1886},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T114","span":{"begin":1887,"end":1957},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T115","span":{"begin":1958,"end":2081},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T116","span":{"begin":2082,"end":2222},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T117","span":{"begin":2223,"end":2303},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T118","span":{"begin":2304,"end":3206},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T119","span":{"begin":3207,"end":3302},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T120","span":{"begin":3303,"end":3549},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T121","span":{"begin":3550,"end":3729},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T122","span":{"begin":3730,"end":3844},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T123","span":{"begin":3845,"end":4013},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T124","span":{"begin":4014,"end":4110},"obj":"Sentence"},{"id":"T125","span":{"begin":4111,"end":5256},"obj":"Sentence"}],"namespaces":[{"prefix":"_base","uri":"http://pubannotation.org/ontology/tao.owl#"}],"text":"Evaluation of the effectiveness of city lockdown and intensive community screening\nWe calculated α values for Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei (Fig 2), and found that the α value of Wuhan decreased slightly after city lockdown (from 0.869 on January 23 to 0.228 on February 16). However, the α value of China excluding Hubei decreased steadily after January 23 (from 5.563 on January 23 to 0.064 on February 16). These results suggest that the rapid spread of the virus from Wuhan to other cities was effectively suppressed, but not the local spread in Wuhan.\nFig 2 Real-world α values and numbers of infections in Wuhan city from January 20 to March 10 and in China excluding Hubei from January 23 to March 11.\nReal α values (A) and numbers of infections (B) in Wuhan city; real α values (C) and numbers of infections (D) in China excluding Hubei. The nationwide intensive community screening (starting on February 16) was associated with a significant decrease in the α value of Wuhan city (from 0.228 on February 16 to 0.003 on March 10) and a stable α value of China excluding Hubei (from 0.064 on February 16 to 0.079 on March 10). This suggests that intensive community screening significantly enhanced the effectiveness of Wuhan city isolation and kept infection levels stable in other regions. As a result, the infected cases decreased significantly in Wuhan and China excluding Hubei, from 36385 and 8163 on February 16, respectively, to 13462 and 493 on March 11 (Fig 2).\nNext, we predicted the increase in infections, supposing that the two measures had never been implemented. To assess the impacts of city lockdown on Wuhan, the lowest α value before January 23 was set as the α value before city lockdown, and we made the same assumption for the recovery number. Infections in Wuhan were predicted from January 24 to February 15 using simulated α values and φ values. Similar analyses were performed using data from China excluding Hubei. The infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 36241 and 129269, respectively, on February 15. In reality, with city lockdown, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 36547 and 8533, respectively (Fig 3).\nFig 3 Impact of city lockdown on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (B) The α values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (C) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the number of infections in Wuhan city from January 24 to February 15. (D) The φ values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (F) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei province from January 24 to February 15. Similar analyses were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of intensive community screening. For Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei, the α values from February 16 to March 10 were predicted using data from February 6 to February 15, and the φ values from February 16 to March 11 were predicted using data from February 11 to February 15. Then we used the predicted α values to calculate daily_recover_num, and infections from February 16 to March 11 were modeled using the predicted values of α and daily_recover_num. Infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 116003 and 388, respectively, on March 11. In reality, with intensive community screening, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 15892 and 610, respectively, on March 11 (Fig 4).\nFig 4 Impact of intensive community screening on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (B) The α values from February 6 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the α values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (C) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11. (D) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 6 to February 15 were used to predict the α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (F) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11."}

{"project":"LitCovid-PubTator","denotations":[{"id":"103","span":{"begin":606,"end":616},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"106","span":{"begin":750,"end":760},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"107","span":{"begin":813,"end":823},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"110","span":{"begin":1265,"end":1274},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"111","span":{"begin":1324,"end":1332},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"116","span":{"begin":1522,"end":1532},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"117","span":{"begin":1782,"end":1792},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"118","span":{"begin":1962,"end":1972},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"119","span":{"begin":2129,"end":2139},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"122","span":{"begin":2691,"end":2701},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"123","span":{"begin":3130,"end":3140},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"127","span":{"begin":3622,"end":3632},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"128","span":{"begin":3730,"end":3740},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"129","span":{"begin":3908,"end":3918},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"132","span":{"begin":4602,"end":4612},"obj":"Disease"},{"id":"133","span":{"begin":5182,"end":5192},"obj":"Disease"}],"attributes":[{"id":"A103","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"103","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A106","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"106","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A107","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"107","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A110","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"110","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A111","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"111","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A116","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"116","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A117","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"117","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A118","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"118","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A119","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"119","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A122","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"122","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A123","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"123","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A127","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"127","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A128","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"128","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A129","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"129","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A132","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"132","obj":"MESH:D007239"},{"id":"A133","pred":"tao:has_database_id","subj":"133","obj":"MESH:D007239"}],"namespaces":[{"prefix":"Tax","uri":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/taxonomy/"},{"prefix":"MESH","uri":"https://id.nlm.nih.gov/mesh/"},{"prefix":"Gene","uri":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gene/"},{"prefix":"CVCL","uri":"https://web.expasy.org/cellosaurus/CVCL_"}],"text":"Evaluation of the effectiveness of city lockdown and intensive community screening\nWe calculated α values for Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei (Fig 2), and found that the α value of Wuhan decreased slightly after city lockdown (from 0.869 on January 23 to 0.228 on February 16). However, the α value of China excluding Hubei decreased steadily after January 23 (from 5.563 on January 23 to 0.064 on February 16). These results suggest that the rapid spread of the virus from Wuhan to other cities was effectively suppressed, but not the local spread in Wuhan.\nFig 2 Real-world α values and numbers of infections in Wuhan city from January 20 to March 10 and in China excluding Hubei from January 23 to March 11.\nReal α values (A) and numbers of infections (B) in Wuhan city; real α values (C) and numbers of infections (D) in China excluding Hubei. The nationwide intensive community screening (starting on February 16) was associated with a significant decrease in the α value of Wuhan city (from 0.228 on February 16 to 0.003 on March 10) and a stable α value of China excluding Hubei (from 0.064 on February 16 to 0.079 on March 10). This suggests that intensive community screening significantly enhanced the effectiveness of Wuhan city isolation and kept infection levels stable in other regions. As a result, the infected cases decreased significantly in Wuhan and China excluding Hubei, from 36385 and 8163 on February 16, respectively, to 13462 and 493 on March 11 (Fig 2).\nNext, we predicted the increase in infections, supposing that the two measures had never been implemented. To assess the impacts of city lockdown on Wuhan, the lowest α value before January 23 was set as the α value before city lockdown, and we made the same assumption for the recovery number. Infections in Wuhan were predicted from January 24 to February 15 using simulated α values and φ values. Similar analyses were performed using data from China excluding Hubei. The infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 36241 and 129269, respectively, on February 15. In reality, with city lockdown, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 36547 and 8533, respectively (Fig 3).\nFig 3 Impact of city lockdown on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (B) The α values for Wuhan city at January 22 (before city lockdown) were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (C) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the number of infections in Wuhan city from January 24 to February 15. (D) The φ values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the φ values from January 23 to February 15 without city lockdown. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei province on January 22 were used to predict the α values from January 23 to February 14 without city lockdown. (F) Predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei province from January 24 to February 15. Similar analyses were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of intensive community screening. For Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei, the α values from February 16 to March 10 were predicted using data from February 6 to February 15, and the φ values from February 16 to March 11 were predicted using data from February 11 to February 15. Then we used the predicted α values to calculate daily_recover_num, and infections from February 16 to March 11 were modeled using the predicted values of α and daily_recover_num. Infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were predicted to be 116003 and 388, respectively, on March 11. In reality, with intensive community screening, the numbers of infections in Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei were 15892 and 610, respectively, on March 11 (Fig 4).\nFig 4 Impact of intensive community screening on Wuhan city and China excluding Hubei province.\n(A) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (B) The α values from February 6 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the α values for Wuhan city from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (C) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in Wuhan city from February 16 to March 11. (D) The φ values from February 11 to February 15 (before intensive community screening) were fitted to predict the φ values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11 without intensive community screening. (E) The α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 6 to February 15 were used to predict the α values for China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 10 without intensive community screening. (F) The predicted α values and φ values were used to calculate the numbers of infections in China excluding Hubei Province from February 16 to March 11."}