PMC:7210464 / 73607-75445 JSONTXT

{"target":"http://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7210464","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7210464","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7210464","text":"Our counterfactual simulations indicate that suppressing local virus transmissions so that transmission rates are kept well below those observed in Hubei in late January is crucial in forestalling large numbers of infections for cities outside Hubei. Our retrospective analysis of the data from China complements the simulation study of Ferguson et al. (2020). Our estimates indicate that suppressing local transmission rates at low levels might have avoided one million or more infections in China. Chinazzi et al. (2020) also find that reducing local transmission rates is necessary for effective containment of COVID-19. The public health policies announced by the national and provincial authorities in the last 2 weeks in January may have played a determinant role (Tian et al. 2020) in keeping local transmission rates in cities outside Hubei at low levels throughout January and February. Among the measures implemented following provincial level I responses, Shen et al. (2020) highlight the importance of contact tracing and isolation of close contacts before onset of symptoms in preventing a resurgence of infections once the COVID-19 suppression measures are relaxed. We also find that travel restrictions on high-risk areas (the lockdown in Wuhan), and to a lesser extent, closed management of communities and family outdoor restrictions, further reduce the number of cases. It should be noted that these factors may overlap in the real world. In the absence of the lockdown in Wuhan, the health care systems in cities outside Hubei could face much more pressure, and local transmissions may have been much higher. In China, the arrival of the COVID-19 epidemic coincided with the Lunar New Year for many cities. Had the outbreak started at a different time, the effects and costs of these policies would likely be 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