| Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
| T170 |
0-10 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Discussion |
| T171 |
11-193 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Since the COVID-19 disease reported in Wuhan city, Hubei province of China, the Chinese government and all the people have been fighting against the disease for more than two months. |
| T172 |
194-403 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Now, the daily new confirmed cases have been continuously decreasing, and the latest value is 427 at Feb 28, 2020 from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (http://www.nhc.gov.cn/). |
| T173 |
404-633 |
Sentence |
denotes |
According to the present COVID-19 disease situation, some provinces have been adjusted the emergency response level of epidemic prevention and control from the first level response to the second level, such as Guangdong province. |
| T174 |
634-715 |
Sentence |
denotes |
More and more workers are coming back to Guangdong province from other provinces. |
| T175 |
716-958 |
Sentence |
denotes |
To address the effects of the input population on the disease variations, taking Guangdong province as a case study, the impacts of the input population and quarantine strategies are explored using a dynamical epidemic model at three aspects. |
| T176 |
959-1213 |
Sentence |
denotes |
They include aspect 1: effects of the input population at different scenarios; aspect 2: effects of quarantine rates at different scenarios and the last aspect (i.e. aspect 3): effects of both input population and quarantine rates at different scenarios. |
| T177 |
1214-1402 |
Sentence |
denotes |
For the population flow, recent study ([Tang et al., 2020a], [Tang et al., 2020b]) considered the data from the Baidu migration website in a stochastic discrete transmission dynamic model. |
| T178 |
1403-1581 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Both our study and [Tang et al., 2020a], [Tang et al., 2020b] obtained the risk of the secondary outbreak when the population flow are changed at a serious input population flow. |
| T179 |
1582-1853 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In [Tang et al., 2020a], [Tang et al., 2020b], with more data from the Health Commission of Shananxi Province, they estimated the daily new increased confirmed cases, and the daily new increased infectious individuals from the population flow by the Poisson distribution. |
| T180 |
1854-2021 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In our study, constrained by the data policy of the Health Commission of Guangdong Province, the input population is defined as the deterministic and continuous input. |
| T181 |
2022-2338 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Moreover, the ratio of the exposed individuals accounting for the input population is defined as the percentages of the exposed individuals in the total population of China excluding Guangdong and Hubei provinces which is derived from the daily new increased confirmed cases according to the 3–7 days latent periods. |
| T182 |
2339-2541 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In the development of the COVID-19 model, [Tang et al., 2020a], [Tang et al., 2020b] considered the quarantined susceptible individuals returned back to susceptible individuals after 14 days quarantine. |
| T183 |
2542-2635 |
Sentence |
denotes |
While this condition is not included in our study the major reasons are displayed as follows. |
| T184 |
2636-2784 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Under the present quarantine strategies in China, the susceptible individuals are quarantined in the forms of home quarantine, community quarantine. |
| T185 |
2785-3184 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Although the quarantined susceptible individuals can be returned to susceptible individuals after 14 days, they will certainly employ very strict other controlling strategies against the COVID-19 virus, such as wearing the medical masks and washing their hands frequently, and which result in only very small part of the quarantined susceptible individuals back to the truth susceptible individuals. |
| T186 |
3185-3331 |
Sentence |
denotes |
For the simulation and prediction abilities of our model, it displayed that our model can well capture the COVID-19 variations with high accuracy. |
| T187 |
3332-3437 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In general, it is very hard to capture the disease variations with high accuracy by the dynamical models. |
| T188 |
3438-3550 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We have been compared our forecasting with the observed data prolonged 11 days from Feb 24, 2020 to Mar 4, 2020. |
| T189 |
3551-3658 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The absolute values of RE (relative error) of the cumulative confirmed cases are smaller than 1% (Table 2). |
| T190 |
3659-3826 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The corresponding figures also display that our model can capture the temporal variations in a relative longer period (see SFigure 1 in the supplementary information). |
| T191 |
3827-4021 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The weaker forecasting capabilities from Feb 24, 2020 to Mar 4, 2020 than these from Feb 20, 2020 to Feb 23, 2020 are resulted by the parameter estimation period of Jan 19, 2020 to Feb 19, 2020. |
| T192 |
4022-4211 |
Sentence |
denotes |
At the same time, it inspired that if we want to obtain a high accuracy in a relative longer period the dataset used to estimate the parameters should be changed or prolonged with the time. |
| T193 |
4212-4484 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Our result indicated that the increased numbers of the input population can mainly shorten the disease extinction days and the increased percentages of the exposed individuals of the input population increase the number of cumulative confirmed cases at a small percentage. |
| T194 |
4485-4638 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Both the increased input population and the increased exposed individuals have no impacts on the peak values and peak value times of the confirmed cases. |
| T195 |
4639-4858 |
Sentence |
denotes |
For the impacts of aspect 2, no quarantine or very weak quarantine on the susceptible individuals and exposed individuals before the days of the peak values of the confirmed cases may lead to the disease outbreak again. |
| T196 |
4859-4942 |
Sentence |
denotes |
This proves the significant role of the quarantine strategy on the disease control. |
| T197 |
4943-5152 |
Sentence |
denotes |
If we increase the input population and decrease the quarantine strategy together around the time point of the peak value of the confirmed cases, there will appear second outbreak of the disease exponentially. |
| T198 |
5153-5332 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Moreover, the weaker quarantine rates together with the more input population resulted in the more infected individuals and increased the number of the cumulative confirmed cases. |
| T199 |
5333-5441 |
Sentence |
denotes |
More information about our simulation and quarantine situation can be explored if more data can be obtained. |
| T200 |
5442-5667 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In this study, to address the quarantine situation in Guangdong province, 108 scenarios are listed from the input population and quarantine strategies which may include the present quarantine strategies in Guangdong province. |
| T201 |
5668-5844 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The other further analysis of the COVID-19 variations, such as the daily number of people under medical observation, will be explored when more new data are obtained in future. |
| T202 |
5845-6065 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Based the above analysis, we have the major conclusions as follows.(1) The COVID-19 disease variations can be simulated by our models with very high accuracy, including the cumulative confirmed cases and confirmed cases. |
| T203 |
6066-6248 |
Sentence |
denotes |
(2) Under the present daily input population and quarantine strategy, the COVID-19 disease will become extinction in May 11, 2020, with the cumulative confirmed cases number of 1397. |
| T204 |
6249-6475 |
Sentence |
denotes |
(3) In Guangdong province, the adjustment of the emergency response level of epidemic prevention and control from the first level response to the second level at Feb 24, 2020 is reasonable which is also predicted by our model. |
| T205 |
6476-6655 |
Sentence |
denotes |
(4) The disease will have a second outbreak risk when the input population is remarkably increased and the present quarantine strategy rapidly decreases to the values around zero. |
