| Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
| T306 |
0-30 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Incubation period distribution |
| T307 |
31-96 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We use a gamma distribution to model individual incubation times. |
| T308 |
97-280 |
Sentence |
denotes |
We choose this form over the Weibull and lognormal distribution for ease of interpretation (gamma shape and scale parameters can be transformed easily to mean and standard deviation). |
| T309 |
281-465 |
Sentence |
denotes |
So far, best-fit gamma distributions to COVID-19 data have had mean 6.5 and standard deviation 2.6 (Backer et al., 2020), or mean 5.46 and standard deviation 1.94 (Lauer et al., 2020). |
| T310 |
466-703 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Here, to model uncertainty around the true mean incubation time, we fix the standard deviation to 2.25 (intermediate between the two existing estimates), and allow the mean to vary between 4.5 and 6.5 days (Figure 2—figure supplement 2). |
| T311 |
704-954 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The 95th percentile of the distributions we consider fall between 8.7 and 10.6 days, slightly below the officially accepted maximum incubation time of 14 days, and consistent with existing estimates (Table 1; Backer et al., 2020; Lauer et al., 2020). |
