PMC:7039910 / 10565-11691 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7039910","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7039910","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7039910","text":"Estimations of the transmission risk and the epidemic trend of COVID-19 are of great importance because these can arouse the vigilance of the policy makers, health professionals, and the whole society so that enough resources would be mobilized in a speedy and efficient way for both control and treatment. We estimated the number of infections using SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model under two assumptions of Rt (Rt maintaining to be \u003e1 or Rt gradually decreasing to \u003c1) in the purpose of depicting various possible epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Two estimations provide an approach for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China, depending on whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020. Assuming the current control measures were ineffective and insufficient, the estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without a peak. On the other hand, assuming the current control measures were effective and sufficient, the estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February 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