Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T83 |
0-22 |
Sentence |
denotes |
5-days ahead forecasts |
T84 |
23-213 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The latest 5-day ahead forecasts, generated on February 9, 2020, estimate an average of 34,509–34,596 total cumulative cases in Hubei by February 14, 2020 across the three models (Fig. 1 a). |
T85 |
214-330 |
Sentence |
denotes |
For other provinces, the models predict an average range of 11,317–12,118 cumulative cases by February 14 (Fig. 1b). |
T86 |
331-541 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Based on cumulative reported cases as of February 9th, these estimates correspond with an average of 7409–7496 additional cases in Hubei and 1128–1929 additional cases in other provinces within the next 5 days. |
T87 |
542-704 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Fig. 1 Forecasting results for 5-days ahead estimates, generated daily from February 5–9, 2020, of cumulative reported cases in Hubei (a) and other provinces (b). |
T88 |
705-826 |
Sentence |
denotes |
The mean case estimate is represented by the dots, while the lines represent the 95% prediction intervals for each model. |
T89 |
827-1052 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Comparing the 5-day ahead forecasts generated daily on February 5–9, 2020, the GLM and Richards models yield comparable prediction intervals in Hubei, while the sub-epidemic model yields wider intervals than the other models. |
T90 |
1053-1252 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Also, 5 day ahead forecasts from the sub-epidemic model on February 5th and 6th predict significantly higher case counts in Hubei compared to forecasts generated on February 7th and beyond (Fig. 1a). |
T91 |
1253-1427 |
Sentence |
denotes |
For other provinces, the GLM and Richards model yield intervals of similar widths, but the GLM predicts higher case counts than the Richards model across all dates (Fig. 1b). |
T92 |
1428-1572 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Further, the sub-epidemic model has significantly wider prediction intervals compared to the other models for all forecasts for other provinces. |
T93 |
1573-1786 |
Sentence |
denotes |
While the uncertainty of the predictions decreases as more data became available in Hubei, the uncertainty of the predictions for other provinces remain relatively stable, compared to forecasts from earlier dates. |