PMC:7029158 / 16775-18596 JSONTXT

{"target":"https://pubannotation.org/docs/sourcedb/PMC/sourceid/7029158","sourcedb":"PMC","sourceid":"7029158","source_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/7029158","text":"Within the existing literature, two studies estimated under-estimation of coronavirus cases: the investigations by Zhao and collaborators (Zhao et al., 2020) and by Read et al. (Read, Bridgen, Cummings, Ho, \u0026 Jewell, 2020). Specifically, Zhao and coworkers (Zhao et al., 2020) have assessed from a quantitative standpoint the under-reporting rate of coronavirus cases, modeling the epidemic growth curve using the exponential growing Poisson process. Authors computed the number of under-reported coronavirus cases to be 469 (95% CI 403–540). Based on this estimate, the basic reproduction number was found to be 2.56 (95% CI 2.49–2.63). In a previous version of the investigation, released in the bioRxiv pre-print server, the reproduction number was computed to oscillate between 3.30 (95% CI 2.73–3.96) and 5.47 (95% CI 4.16–7.10). The basic reproduction number was also found to be associated with 0-fold–2-fold increase in the reporting rate. More in detail, with report rates increasing over the time, the mean value was statistically likely to be higher than 3 but less than 5. Read and coauthors (Read et al., 2020) used a deterministic SEIR model, assuming coronavirus cases being Poisson distributed and with parameter inference being achieved by maximum likelihood estimation utilizing the Nelder-Mead optimization approach. According to the dynamics transmission model, an ascertainment rate of 5.0% (95% CI 3.6–7.4) was computed and, based on this, authors estimated that as of January 22nd, 2020 in Wuhan there were 14,464 (95% CI 6510–25095) infected individuals, and 21,022 (95% CI 11,090–33,490) infections. The basic reproduction number was computed to be 3.11 (95% CI 2.39–4.13). In terms of public health implications, in order to stop the outbreak, at least 58–76% of transmissions should be 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