PMC:4693303 / 19083-23305 JSONTXT

{"project":"TEST0","denotations":[{"id":"26752867-227-233-1465718","span":{"begin":614,"end":616},"obj":"[\"25742142\"]"},{"id":"26752867-235-241-1465719","span":{"begin":901,"end":903},"obj":"[\"23200504\"]"},{"id":"26752867-233-239-1465720","span":{"begin":1092,"end":1094},"obj":"[\"26087978\"]"},{"id":"26752867-64-70-1465721","span":{"begin":1306,"end":1308},"obj":"[\"25578284\"]"},{"id":"26752867-153-158-1465722","span":{"begin":2674,"end":2675},"obj":"[\"25538455\"]"},{"id":"26752867-232-237-1465723","span":{"begin":3093,"end":3094},"obj":"[\"25538455\"]"}],"text":"THE 2014-2015 EBOLA OUTBREAK: BROADER ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS\nAlthough the true extent of economic damage is difficult to measure, the World Bank Group has estimated the GDP losses for the three countries to be approximately $2.2 billion ($240 million for Liberia, $535 for Guinea, and $1.4 billion for Sierra Leone).[4445] The amounts given above are related to specific interventions, but the total economic Ebola impact (not simply money spent, but all opportunities lost) will likely range from $3.8 billion to $32.6 billion, including factors such as investor aversion and interruptions to mining operations.[4647]\nOne way to mitigate the economic consequences of future Ebola epidemics (or other similar public health emergencies of international concern) may be to proactively address the potential for zoonotic spillovers in conjunction with enhanced recognition of regional disease patterns.[48] Castillo-Chavez et al. comment that changes in land use, crop selection, migration and travel patterns, livestock use, and transportation all need to be carefully studied and considered.[49] For instance, the incidence of zoonotic spillovers may be reduced by educating farmers on how to expand the production of conventional livestock.\nAccording to a computational model developed by Bartsch et al.,[50] the cost of a single Ebola case through December 2014 ranged from $480 to $912 if the patient recovered, and for patients that did not survive the range was from $5929 to $18,929. These results varied by locale. The total costs to society in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are estimated to have been $82,000,000 to $356,000,000 related to patient care alone, excluding nonmedical impact. As indicated earlier in this review, total loses (economic/investment) will be much higher.\nAlthough the current outbreak continues to primarily affect the three West African countries and their economies, there are significant differences in regard to the local impact across the Ebola-ravaged region.[45] Liberia has experienced resurgence in mining and agriculture with 2015 GDP growth projected at 3% - an increase from the 1% GDP growth of 2014, but well below the pre-Ebola estimate of 6.8% growth. Guinea has rebounded with mining, but agriculture still struggles. The GDP is projected to continue to stall, compared to pre-Ebola projected growth of 4.3%. In Sierra Leone, the mining sector has essentially shut down and some estimates place the short-term economic contraction of GDP at a devastating 23.5%.[45]\nInflation has moderated below 10% in the three countries, helped by lower international food and fuel prices, but food security remains a major concern.[151] The simultaneous decline in government revenues and unplanned increases in health expenditures have led to widening fiscal deficits in the primarily affected countries.[45] Economic losses continued to accrue from various sources, including agriculture, decreased cross-border trading, lower store sales, decline in construction and transportation activity, and significant reductions in the hospitality industry.[14552] Airlines canceled or restricted flights to Ebola-affected countries, and foreign companies slowed activities as expatriates (temporarily) exited the affected region.[53] All of the above forces contributed to rise in local unemployment.[52]\nSubstantial financial resources were dedicated to maintaining social safety net programs, reviving agriculture, and actively addressing hunger-related issues in Ebola-affected locales.[404445] As previously outlined, a total of nearly $700 million in aid was designated to providing financing for trade, investment, “economic continuity,” and employment in the outbreak-affected regions.[404445] Additional $200 million was earmarked for an Ebola recovery program that finances medium- and long-term projects in the post-outbreak period.[404445] It is critical to acknowledge that the pace of overall post-Ebola economic recovery will depend on adequate financial support and effective recovery plans. Eradication of Ebola and enhancement of regional health care systems predominate the “top priority” list. Ongoing support from the international community continues to be crucial."}

{"project":"2_test","denotations":[{"id":"26752867-25742142-60482784","span":{"begin":614,"end":616},"obj":"25742142"},{"id":"26752867-23200504-60482785","span":{"begin":901,"end":903},"obj":"23200504"},{"id":"26752867-26087978-60482786","span":{"begin":1092,"end":1094},"obj":"26087978"},{"id":"26752867-25578284-60482787","span":{"begin":1306,"end":1308},"obj":"25578284"},{"id":"26752867-25538455-60482788","span":{"begin":2674,"end":2675},"obj":"25538455"},{"id":"26752867-25538455-60482789","span":{"begin":3093,"end":3094},"obj":"25538455"}],"text":"THE 2014-2015 EBOLA OUTBREAK: BROADER ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS\nAlthough the true extent of economic damage is difficult to measure, the World Bank Group has estimated the GDP losses for the three countries to be approximately $2.2 billion ($240 million for Liberia, $535 for Guinea, and $1.4 billion for Sierra Leone).[4445] The amounts given above are related to specific interventions, but the total economic Ebola impact (not simply money spent, but all opportunities lost) will likely range from $3.8 billion to $32.6 billion, including factors such as investor aversion and interruptions to mining operations.[4647]\nOne way to mitigate the economic consequences of future Ebola epidemics (or other similar public health emergencies of international concern) may be to proactively address the potential for zoonotic spillovers in conjunction with enhanced recognition of regional disease patterns.[48] Castillo-Chavez et al. comment that changes in land use, crop selection, migration and travel patterns, livestock use, and transportation all need to be carefully studied and considered.[49] For instance, the incidence of zoonotic spillovers may be reduced by educating farmers on how to expand the production of conventional livestock.\nAccording to a computational model developed by Bartsch et al.,[50] the cost of a single Ebola case through December 2014 ranged from $480 to $912 if the patient recovered, and for patients that did not survive the range was from $5929 to $18,929. These results varied by locale. The total costs to society in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are estimated to have been $82,000,000 to $356,000,000 related to patient care alone, excluding nonmedical impact. As indicated earlier in this review, total loses (economic/investment) will be much higher.\nAlthough the current outbreak continues to primarily affect the three West African countries and their economies, there are significant differences in regard to the local impact across the Ebola-ravaged region.[45] Liberia has experienced resurgence in mining and agriculture with 2015 GDP growth projected at 3% - an increase from the 1% GDP growth of 2014, but well below the pre-Ebola estimate of 6.8% growth. Guinea has rebounded with mining, but agriculture still struggles. The GDP is projected to continue to stall, compared to pre-Ebola projected growth of 4.3%. In Sierra Leone, the mining sector has essentially shut down and some estimates place the short-term economic contraction of GDP at a devastating 23.5%.[45]\nInflation has moderated below 10% in the three countries, helped by lower international food and fuel prices, but food security remains a major concern.[151] The simultaneous decline in government revenues and unplanned increases in health expenditures have led to widening fiscal deficits in the primarily affected countries.[45] Economic losses continued to accrue from various sources, including agriculture, decreased cross-border trading, lower store sales, decline in construction and transportation activity, and significant reductions in the hospitality industry.[14552] Airlines canceled or restricted flights to Ebola-affected countries, and foreign companies slowed activities as expatriates (temporarily) exited the affected region.[53] All of the above forces contributed to rise in local unemployment.[52]\nSubstantial financial resources were dedicated to maintaining social safety net programs, reviving agriculture, and actively addressing hunger-related issues in Ebola-affected locales.[404445] As previously outlined, a total of nearly $700 million in aid was designated to providing financing for trade, investment, “economic continuity,” and employment in the outbreak-affected regions.[404445] Additional $200 million was earmarked for an Ebola recovery program that finances medium- and long-term projects in the post-outbreak period.[404445] It is critical to acknowledge that the pace of overall post-Ebola economic recovery will depend on adequate financial support and effective recovery plans. Eradication of Ebola and enhancement of regional health care systems predominate the “top priority” list. Ongoing support from the international community continues to be crucial."}