Id |
Subject |
Object |
Predicate |
Lexical cue |
T85 |
0-101 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Parameter Best estimate (Used in Figure 2) Plausible range (Used in Figure 3) References and notes |
T86 |
102-147 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Mean incubation period 5.5 days Sensitivity: |
T87 |
148-362 |
Sentence |
denotes |
4.5 or 6.5 days 4.5–6.5 days 3–6 days, n = 4 (Chan et al., 2020)* 5.2 (4.1–7.0) days, n < 425 (Li et al., 2020)† 5.2 (4.4–6.0) days, n = 101 (Lauer et al., 2020)† 6.5 (5.6–7.9) days, n = 88 (Backer et al., 2020)† |
T88 |
363-463 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Incubation period distribution Gamma distribution with mean as above, and standard deviation = 2.25 |
T89 |
464-533 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Percent of cases subclinical (No fever or cough) Best case scenario: |
T90 |
534-558 |
Sentence |
denotes |
5% Middle case scenario: |
T91 |
559-583 |
Sentence |
denotes |
25% Worst case scenario: |
T92 |
584-603 |
Sentence |
denotes |
50% Clinical data: |
T93 |
604-1091 |
Sentence |
denotes |
83% fever, 67% cough, n = 6 (Chan et al., 2020) 83% fever, 82% cough, n = 99 (Chen et al., 2020) 98% fever, 76% cough, n = 41 (Huang et al., 2020) 43.8% fever at hospital admission, 88.7% fever during hospitalization, n = 1099 (Guan et al., 2020) Active monitoring after repatriation flights or on cruise ships: % asymptomatic at diagnosis 31.2% (111/355) (Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, 2020) 65.2% (5 of 8) (Nishiura et al., 2020) 70.0% (7 of 10) (Dorigatti et al., 2020) |
T94 |
1092-1135 |
Sentence |
denotes |
R0 No effect in individual-level analysis. |
T95 |
1137-1495 |
Sentence |
denotes |
1.5–4.0 2.2 (1.4–3.8) (Riou and Althaus, 2020) 2.2 (1.4–3.9) (Li et al., 2020) 2.6 (1.5–3.5) (Imai et al., 2020) 2.7 (2.5–2.9) (Wu et al., 2020) 4.5 (4.4-4.6) (Liu et al., 2020) 3.8 (3.6-4.0) (Read et al., 2020) 4.08 (3.37–4.77) (Cao et al., 2020) 4.7 (2.8–7.6) (Sanche et al., 2020) 6.3 (3.3-11.3) (Sanche et al., 2020) 6.47 (5.71–7.23) (Tang et al., 2020) |
T96 |
1496-1714 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Percent of travellers aware of exposure risk 20% 5–40% We assume a low percentage, as no specific risk factors have been identified, and known times or sources of exposure are rarely reported in existing line lists. |
T97 |
1715-1890 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Sensitivity of infrared thermal scanners for fever 70% 60–90% Most studies estimated sensitivity between 60–88% (Bitar et al., 2009; Priest et al., 2011; Tay et al., 2015). |
T98 |
1891-1955 |
Sentence |
denotes |
But a handful of studies estimated very low sensitivity (4–30%). |
T99 |
1956-2052 |
Sentence |
denotes |
In general, sensitivity depended on the device used, body area targeted and ambient temperature. |
T100 |
2053-2221 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Probability that travellers self-report exposure risk 25% 5–25% 25% is an upper-bound estimate based on outcomes of past screening initiatives. (Gostic et al., 2015) |
T101 |
2222-2354 |
Sentence |
denotes |
Time from symptom onset to patient isolation (After which we assume travel is not possible) No effect in individual-level analysis. |
T102 |
2356-2637 |
Sentence |
denotes |
3–7 days Median 7 days from onset to hospitalization (n = 6) (Chan et al., 2020) Mean 2.9 days onset to patient isolation (n = 164) (Liu et al., 2020) Median 7 days from onset to hospitalization (n = 41) (Huang et al., 2020) As awareness increases, times to isolation may decline. |