Compartmental flow model diagram depicting stages of disease and transitions between states. Asymptomatic infection represents the number of people never showing symptoms while symptomatic infection includes all those who show presymptomatic/mild symptoms to those who show more severe symptoms (prehospitalisation). Those who are hospitalised first occupy a non-IC bed (acute bed) after which they can either move into IC, recover or die. Those in IC can either recover or die at an increased rate compared with those in acute beds. This model does not capture those deaths which occur outside of hospital as a result of COVID-19. IC, intensive care.