However, the SW’s first case occurred around 2 weeks later than the first UK case14; perhaps implying that the local SW epidemic may be more effectively controlled due to a lower number of baseline cases (than the national average) at the time national interventions were implemented, as well as reduced transmission due to rurality. This subnational analysis can support in mapping the local epidemic, planning local hospital capacity outside of the main urban centres and ensuring effective mobilisation of additional support and resources if required. Should demand be lower than expected, reliable forecasts could facilitate more effective use of available resources through reintroducing elective treatments (that had initially been postponed) and responding to other non-COVID-19 sources of emergency demand.