Estimating the total hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in acute and IC beds
The total number of patients in acute (non-IC) hospital beds across SW was projected to be 701 (95% CrI 169 to 1543) and the total number of patients in IC hospital beds was projected to be 110 (95% CrI 8 to 464) on 11 May 2020 (figure 3). Note that these ranges are quite large due to the uncertainty in the data and as more data become available these predictions will change.
Figure 3  The predicted number of hospitalised patients in acute and intensive care beds in the South West England (SW) until 11 May 2020. The number of daily incoming patients diagnosed with COVID-19 is shown in orange (from SW daily case data14), 95% credible intervals are shown in light grey, 50% in dark grey and the median value of the fits is highlighted in black. The shaded region indicates the prediction of the model from the data. Blue and red vertical lines represent the date the government introduced social distancing and school closures/lockdown, respectively. IC, intensive care.