Estimating the total proportion of individuals with COVID-19 in SW
Figure 2 shows the projected numbers of exposed, recovered and infectious (asymptomatic and symptomatic infections) until lockdown measures were lessened on 11 May 2020. On this date, the model predicts that a total of 5793 (95% CrI 2003 to 12 051) were infectious (0.10% of the total SW population, 95% CrI 0.04% to 0.22%). The model also predicts that a total of 189 048 (95% CrI 141 580 to 277 955) have had the virus but recovered (either asymptomatically or symptomatically), which is 3.4% (95% CrI 2.5% to 5.0%) of the SW population (not infectious and not susceptible to reinfection).
Figure 2  The predicted median size of the exposed (E), infectious (I) and recovered (R) classes, along with the size of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals on each day in South West England until 11 May 2020. Blue and red vertical lines represent the date the government introduced social distancing and school closures/lockdown, respectively.