Table 1 Estimated parameter values for Campania in the South (region no. 6) and Lombardy in the North (region no. 11), where the initial outbreak occurred.
Region Breakpoint ρi αi ψi κi H κi Q ηi Q ηi H ζi I0 If R0,i
Campania 19/3/20 0.467 0.014 0.064 0.000 0.100 0.018 0.000 0.022 1231 1816 1.26
30/3/20 0.221 0.067 0.019 0.006 0.040 0.018 0.000 0.011 2231 234 0.57
Lombardy 27/2/20 0.727 0.009 0.092 0.000 0.040 0.010 0.053 0.033 1799 28900 1.69
19/3/20 0.303 0.018 0.056 0.000 0.027 0.010 0.029 0.024 28900 6731 0.84
These regions are highlighted in a darker colour in Fig. 1. Here, I0 is the number of infected estimated in the region at the beginning of each time window, while If is the number of infected at the end of each time window estimated by running the model (14)–(16), given the set of identified parameters and the initial condition on the infected I0. The first breakpoint is the date when 10 deaths and 10 recovered were first reported in the region and the analysis started. The second breakpoint is the end of the first window and the start of the second window (ending on May 3, 2020).