Numerical simulations
All simulations were carried out in MATLAB with a discretization step of 1 day to match the available data sampling interval. Initial conditions for regional compartments were set as follows. Quarantined, Hospitalized, Deceased and Recovered are initially set to the datapoints available for May 3, 2020. The number of infected is set to the value If estimated by our procedure for that date; Susceptibles are initialized to the resident population from which the other compartments are removed.
Further details are given in Supplementary Notes.