Intermittent regional measures with increased COVID-19 testing capacity.
a Each of the 20 panels shows in a double scale plot the evolution in the region named above the panel of the fraction in the population of infected (blue), quarantined (magenta) and hospitalized requiring ICUs (red) averaged over 10,000 simulations with parameters sampled using a Latin Hypercube technique (see Methods) around their nominal values set as those estimated in the last time window for each region as reported in Supplementary Table 4. Shaded bands correspond to twice the standard deviation. Dashed red lines represent the fraction of the population that can be treated in ICU (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} 				\usepackage{amsmath} 				\usepackage{wasysym} 				\usepackage{amsfonts} 				\usepackage{amssymb} 				\usepackage{amsbsy} 				\usepackage{mathrsfs} 				\usepackage{upgreek} 				\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} 				\begin{document}$$T_i^H{\mathrm{/}}N_i$$\end{document}TiH/Ni). Regions adopt lockdown measures in the time windows shaded in red while relax them in those shaded in green. During a regional lockdown, fluxes in/out of the region are set to their minimum level. Regional COVID-19 testing capacities are assumed to be increased by a factor 2.5 (see Methods) with respect to their current values. b National evolution of the fraction of infected (blue), quarantined (magenta) and hospitalized requiring ICUs (red) obtained by summing those in each of the 20 regions adopting intermittent regional measures. All plots are shown with a double scale. The scale on the left vertical axis (in red) applies to the hospitalized requiring ICU and the ICU beds capacity threshold, while the right vertical axis (in black) applies to the infected and quarantined subjects.