Epidemiologists tell us that the COVID‐19 pandemic will be with us far longer than we may have expected. While many studies on possible treatments or vaccines are being rushed, it has been observed that the progression of past influenza pandemics “was not substantially influenced by a vaccination campaign.”167 Moore, K.A., et al. (2020). COVID‐19: the CIDRAP Viewpoint. Retrieved May 10, 2020, fromhttps://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap‐covid19‐viewpoint‐part1_0.pdf p.5.
Bill Gates has declared a plan to spend billions of dollars to build seven vaccine factories simultaneously while research is still going on in order to hasten the process of development but this extremely expensive initiative is not estimated to bring us closer than 18 months to vaccine implementation.168 Hamilton, I.A. (2020). Bill Gates Is Helping Fund New Factories for 7 Potential Coronavirus Vaccines, even though it Will Waste Billions of Dollars. Business insider.com. Retrieved May 15, 2020, from https://www.businessinsider.com/bill‐gates‐factories‐7‐different‐vaccines‐to‐fight‐coronavirus‐2020‐4
While we are still waiting for a vaccine, we can only count on non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to limit SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission. This makes it necessary to continue with physical distancing and isolation measures for at least 2 years.169 Kissler, S.M., et al. (2020). Projecting the Transmission Dynamics of SARS‐CoV‐2 through the Postpandemic Period. Science. Retrieved August 16, 2020, from 10.1126/science.abb5793
Even worse, we are reminded that “our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social‐distancing orders.”170 Thompson, S.A. (2020). How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? The New York Times. Retrieved May 16, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus‐covid‐vaccine.html
We appear to be playing a waiting game where the cards are stacked against us. According to studies, the pandemic is not likely to be under control until 55 to 70% of the population is immune, which has been estimated to be the threshold for acquiring herd immunity in the case of the current COVID‐19 infection.171 Kwok, K.O., et al. (2020, March 21). Herd Immunity – Estimating the Level Required, to Halt the COVID‐19 Epidemics in Affected Countries. Journal of Infection. 80(6). Retrieved May 10, 2020, from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.03.027
, 172 Kissler, et al., op. cit. note 169.
If so, this outbreak may take 18 to 24 months.173 Moore, et al., op. cit. note 167.
But there are even warnings that herd immunity may not work because of uncertainty concerning the duration of individual immunity to SARS‐CoV‐2 and the low seroconversion rates even in huge populations known to be COVID‐19 hotspots.174 Eckerle, I., & Meyer, B. (2020, July 6). SARS‐CoV‐2 Seroprevalence in COVID‐19 Hotspots. The Lancet. Retrieved July 7, 2020, from https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140‐6736(20)31482‐3.pdf
For instance, a study of 61,075 participants in Spain showed that only 5% developed antibodies.175 Pollán, M., et al. (2020, July 6). Prevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2 in Spain (ENE‐COVID): a Nationwide, Population‐Based Seroepidemiological Study. The Lancet. Retrieved July 7, 2020, from https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140‐6736%2820%2931483‐5
Seroconversion rates were all less than 4% for various subpopulations among 17,368 participants in China.176 Xu, X., et al. (2020, June 5). Seroprevalence of Immunoglobulin M and G Antibodies against SARS‐CoV‐2 in China. Nature Medicine. Retrieved July 7, 2020, from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591‐020‐0949‐6.pdf
These rates mean that a huge percentage of the population remains at risk for infection despite all the damage from the pandemic. Relying too much on the emergence of natural herd immunity will possibly just increase this damage.