Table 4. Summary of themes explored by multiple modeling groups.
Theme KRI IC IDM Other
Outbreak response speed [14, 35, 43, 55] [98]   [162, 166]
Expanded age group SIAs [35] [98] [129]  
Population immunity* [10, 16, 18, 19, 26, 33–40, 43, 46, 47, 49, 52–58, 60, 68–70, 73–77] [83, 84, 87, 89, 92, 93, 100–102, 109, 111] [131, 133, 140–142] [155, 162]
OPV cessation dynamics [26, 38, 39, 49, 68] [100, 111, 113] [134, 143] [153, 165, 166]
Silent transmission on an IPV background and/or delayed detection of transmission due to IPV use [26–28, 39, 41] [97] [133] [162, 164, 166, 170]
Role of IPV after OPV cessation [18–20, 25, 28, 33, 39, 51–60, 64, 65, 68, 69, 73–77, 80] [90, 91, 94, 97, 103, 114, 115, 118–120, 122] [133] [153]
Undetected circulation [27, 46, 70, 71, 75, 76]   [132, 136] [161, 165, 167–169]
Role of IPV in outbreak response SIAs [51, 55, 64, 68]   [133] [150, 164]
Environmental surveillance [43, 46, 55, 67, 71, 73–76, 78] [117] [136, 145, 147] [162, 166]
Vaccine stockpile [21, 23, 53, 65, 77]     [174]
iVDPVs [4, 13, 50, 61, 81] [125]    
Abbreviations: IC, Imperial College; IDM, Institute for Disease Modeling; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; iVDPVs, immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus; KRI, Kid Risk, Inc.; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; SIAs, supplementary immunization activities.
* As indicated in text, defined differently by the 3 modeling groups: KRI focuses on modeling infection and defines ‘population immunity to transmission’ based on all individuals of all ages integrated over all immunity states in a DEB model as a function of serotype, population-specific inputs, and time, which is a model-based concept that does not vary by paper (see details in [34, 202]). KRI publications earlier than 2013 discussed ‘population immunity’ as the same concept (i.e. over the entire population), but characterized it as an input for some analyses based on data (see e.g. [10]); IC focuses only paralysis (i.e. not infection) and defines ‘population immunity’ including only vaccine-induced immunity (i.e. excluding immunity from maternal antibodies and immunity induced by infection with any live poliovirus via community spread), and varies by paper depending on the data used (e.g. nonpolio AFP data for: serotype 1 only for children <5 years old [83, 84, 87], serotypes 1 and 3 for children <2 years old [89], serotypes 1, 2, and 3 for children <36 months [92], serotype 1 for children <5 years old [101], serotype 2 for children <2 years [100], serotype 2 for children <36 months [111, 113], and serotype 1 for children <36 months [102]; multiple metrics used for regression analyses [93, 109], see individual papers for specific definitions); IDM definition of ‘population immunity’ includes only vaccine-induced immunity (i.e. excluding immunity from maternal antibodies and immunity induced by infection with any live poliovirus via community spread), focuses on paralysis (i.e. not infection), and varies by paper depending on data used (e.g. OPV-induced immunity for nonpolio AFP cases in children <5 years old in a district within a 6-month period [131, 133, 141, 142], children <15 years old [140], dose estimates based on SIAs, see individual papers for specific definitions).