Table 3 summarizes the populations considered by the 83 papers that included a polio transmission model [4, 9, 10, 14, 18–20, 22, 24–27, 33–36, 38–41, 43, 46, 47, 49–62, 64, 65, 68–71, 73–77, 81, 97–100, 129, 132–135, 147–171] organized by modeling group. The search process revealed a wide range of populations explored. KRI represents the only modeling group that developed and applied a global model, which relates to its focus on global policy. As shown in Table 3, multiple groups modeled the same countries, particularly the polio-endemic countries as of 2006 (i.e. India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Afghanistan). For each entry, Table 3 shows the population size or time series of population size modeled (N) and the R0 used when reported (i.e. entries missing this information did not report it). Values of R0 depend on the population, model structure, and poliovirus serotype, so comparisons between different modeling groups for a given population should consider the different attributes of the models identified in Table 2.
Table 3. Populations modeled in dynamic transmission models in 83 papers by group, showing population size (N, in millions (M)) (for the time or time series used) and basic reproduction number (R0), if reported.
Population KRI IC IDM Other
Global N = 6,826–8,072 M (2010–2029), R0 = 4–13 by WBIL [18, 20]N = 2,526–9,640 M (1950–2100), R0 = 4–13 by WBIL for WPV1, WPV1*0.9 for WPV2, WPV1*0.75 for WPV3 [4, 50–62, 65, 77, 81]      
Country group*        
104 GPEI countries N = 3,600 M in 1988, R0 = 7.5 (LI), 9.5 (LMI), 11.5 (UMI) [25]      
Low-income countries N = 2,933–3,992 M (2010–2029), R0 = 10 or 13 [19, 22]      
16 African countries       R0 = 1.2–3 for cVDPV2 [133]
European countries       [164]
Importation countries       N = 613 M (2013), R0 = V [157]
GPEI polio-endemic countries (as of 2006)
India (Uttar Pradesh and Bihar) N = 247 M (2006), R0 = 16 [19]N = 54–224 M (1950–2100), R0 = 13 [33]N = 55–224 M (1950–2100), R0 = 13 [35, 36, 46]   [134]  
Nigeria N = 9.7–186 M (northwest zone, 1950–2100), R0 = 8 [33]N = 9.7–234 M (northwest zone, 1950–2100), R0 = 7.5 [35, 40, 46, 49, 64] N = 0.01 M, R0 = 5 [100] [133]N = 0.3 M [129]N = 1.8 M (Kano, 2016), R0 = V [132]  
Pakistan and/or Afghanistan N = 45–422 M (1950–2100), R0 = 11 [71, 73–76]      
Other countries modeled by at least one GPEI-supported modeling group
Israel N = 1.3–15 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5–6 [43, 46, 47]     N = 0.050–0.067 M (2012–2014), R0 = 1–10 [162]N = 100%, R0 = 1.62 [166]
Tajikistan N = 1.5–11 M (1950–2100), R0 = 7–8 [33]N = 1.5–21 M (1950–2100), R0 = 8 [35, 46] N = 5.6 M, R0 = 2.16–2.46 [98]N = 5.6 M, R0 = 2.58 [99]    
United States of America N = 145–570 M (1950–2100), R0 = 6 [9]N = 318–346 M (2010–2020), R0 = 6 [26]N = 158–478 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5 [33]N = 0.276 M (2013 Amish), R0 = 5 [41]N = 158–462 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5 [47]   Houston, Louisiana [134] N = 0.05–0.09 (deployed military personnel 2015–2025), R0 = V [163]R0 = V [158]
Other countries modeled
Albania N = 3.2 M (1996), R0 = 11 [10]N = 1.2–1.8 M (1950–2100), R0 = 11 [33]      
Bangladesh (Matlab)     N = 0.13 M (2012) [135]  
Cuba N = 5.9–7.0 M (1950–2100), R0 = 8 [33]      
Dominican Republic N = 3.6 M (2000), R0 = 11 [10]      
Haiti N = 3.2–14.6 M (1950–2100), R0 = 9.5 [33]      
Indonesia (Madura Island) N = 74–254 M (1950–2100), R0 = 9 [33]      
Lebanon       N = 7 M (2015) [159]
Mexico (Campo Grande, Capoluca, Tuxpanguillo)       R0 = V [170]
The Netherlands N = 15.2 M (1996), R0 = 5 [10]N = 10–17 M (1950–2100), R0 = 4 [33]N = 10–16 M (1950–2100), R0 = 5 [47]      
Republic of the Congo   N = 2.8 M, R0 = 1.5–1.85 [98]    
Theoretical or hypothetical populations N = 100 M, R0 = 4–13 by WBIL [10]N = 10 or 100 M, R0 = 6–13 [14]N = 0.1 M, R0 = 13 [24]N = 0.1–1 M, R0 = 8–16 [27]N = 1 M, R0 = 10 [34, 69]N = 1 M, R0 = 3.6–11.7 [38, 39]N = 0.0035–0.01 M, R0 = 15,20,25 [70] N = 1 M, R0 = 3,10 [97]   R0 = V [147, 148, 151, 152, 156]N = 100%, R0 = 2.8 [149]N = 100%, R0 = 4–20 [154]N = 100%, R0 = 14 [160, 171]N = 100% (DEB), 0.001–0.1 M (IB), R0 = V [155]N = 100 M, R0 = 6 [150]N = 100 M, R0 = V [153]N = 0.2 M, R0 = 8–16 [161]N = 1 M, R0 = V [165]N = 0.0035–0.01 M, R0 = 15,20,25 [167–169]
* See source for list of included countries.
Abbreviations: cVDPV(1,2,3), circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus(serotype 1, 2, or 3); DEB, differential-equation based; IB, individual-based; GPEI, Global Polio Eradication Initiative; IC, Imperial College; IDM, Institute for Disease Modeling; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; KRI, Kid Risk, Inc.; LI, low-income countries; LMI, lower middle-income countries; M, million; N, population; R0 basic reproduction number; UMI, upper middle-income countries; V = varied (used for R0 values, see paper); WBIL, World Bank Income Level; WPV(1,2,3), wild poliovirus(serotype 1, 2, or 3).