Sensitivity analysis 3 of 3.
Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (R𝑒𝑓𝑓) of COVID-19 by Australian state (light blue ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark blue ribbon = 50% credible interval) from 1 March to 5 April 2020, based on data up to and including 13 April 2020. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading, with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dashed line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction number required for control. Results are produced assuming stepwise changes in the relative infectiousness of locally acquired to imported cases according to quarantine requirements for returning travellers introduced on 15 and 27 March (indicated by vertical grey lines). We assumed 50%, 20%, and 1% of imported cases contributed to transmission prior to 15 March, between 15 and 27 March (inclusive), and after 27 March, respectively.