ntributed to transmission prior to 15 March, between 15 and 27 March (inclusive), and after 27 March, respectively. Figure 2—figure supplement 3. Sensitivity analysis 3 of 3. Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (R𝑒𝑓𝑓) of COVID-19 by Australian state (light blue ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark blue ribbon = 50% credible in